October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Favorite words of Winter
Retrogression
Arctic Front
Winter Storm Watch/Warning
Cold Pool
Pizza

[Deweydog]

Favorite words of Winter

Retrogression

Arctic Front

Winter Storm Watch/Warning

Cold Pool

Pizza

The fact “low solar” isn’t on there shows you clearly haven’t kept up with the times.

[TacomaWaWx]

58/42 today. Clipper is coming soon!

[Gradient Keeper]

The fact “low solar” isn’t on there shows you clearly haven’t kept up with the times.

It's not in my top 5, not yet at least. If we end up with an epic November-December I may bump it up past cold pool.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 12 minutes

[Deweydog]

It's not in my top 5, not yet at least. If we end up with an epic November-December I may bump it up past cold pool.

 

00z ECMWF in 5 hours 12 minutes

Can’t have a cold pool without low solar.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Did you know you can get any Jersey Mike's sub in a bowl instead of with bread? I just blew your gluten free mind.

My chiropractor says all bread turns into sugar.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Looking for some warm weather. It was 99 here with 3% humidity.

[Blizzard777]

Would a frosty Halloween be more pleasant than a wet one?

For those of us that do fog effects with our Halloween displays the cold crisp air with zero wind is preferable.

This causes a creepy low lying fog that hugs the ground!  You can also do fog screens in zero wind conditions and display spooky images on it using a laser projector.  Fun stuff if the weather is just right

[Blizzard777]

62/41

54*

 

”The Evil is gone” 

Donald Pleasence aka Loomis 

[Gradient Keeper]

Can’t have a cold pool without low solar.

That might be true, although admittedly I'm not a huge believer in low solar leading to massive blocking, bitter cold for us. You can still have pizza though.

 

00z GEM in 3 hours

[snow_wizard]

The 18z GFS gets a tad interesting.  Looks like a skiff of lowland snow a bit down the road.

 

As I mentioned last night if we end up with a cold October and November that is a great combo for us.  I was really surprised how rare it is when I looked into it last night.  Oct and Nov are usually opposite of each other or not anomalous enough to make the cut.

[snow_wizard]

That might be true, although admittedly I'm not a huge believer in low solar leading to massive blocking, bitter cold for us. You can still have pizza though.

 

00z GEM in 3 hours

 

I think the evidence is pretty good for deep solar mins enhancing chances for cold / blocking in the winter.  Many think low solar played a big role in creating the little ice age.  Look no further than the past three solar minimums for us.  Not saying the correlation is perfect, but there is something there.  This minimum is super deep so it will probably play a role.

[MossMan]

Lovely drive to Omak and back today via North Cascades HWY.

[Deweydog]

Lovely drive to Omak and back today via North Cascades HWY.

I love that drive.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I was driving northbound 97 on way to my cabin tuesday and witnessed a head on crash in front of me. Both cars were demolished. A Tahoe and a honda pilot it looked like. The Honda was upside down and smoking. I ran over to check on the people and the person was dead. The other people in the Tahoe were fine. I could smell alcohol on them. Still shaken up about this. Those people out there drinking and driving are taking lives everday!!

[Guest CulverJosh]

I love that drive.

Do it while you can. Isnt it normally closed around bird day? Or earlier?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do it while you can. Isnt it normally closed around bird day? Or earlier?

 

Yeah we were up that way around November 20, 2016 and it had just been shut down. 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Yeah we were up that way around November 20, 2016 and it had just been shut down.

Pretty similar to the Cascade Lakes Hwy down here but I think it holds on into December most years.

[The Swamp]

The 18z GFS gets a tad interesting.  Looks like a skiff of lowland snow a bit down the road.

 

As I mentioned last night if we end up with a cold October and November that is a great combo for us.  I was really surprised how rare it is when I looked into it last night.  Oct and Nov are usually opposite of each other or not anomalous enough to make the cut.

 

There is lots of blocking out there and if it just moves to the west for a bit an pushes up sharply into Alaska we'll be in business.

[jakeinthevalley]

My chiropractor says all bread turns into sugar.

My doctor said all bread turns into poop. Worth the copay.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There is lots of blocking out there and if it just moves to the west for a bit an pushes up sharply into Alaska we'll be in business.

The nice thing is we arent getting incessant ridging that lasts days and days. The northern jet continues to collapse instead of showing nonstop persistence.

 

Kind of reminds me of Nov/Dec 2005 in Everett, albeit drier. Seemed like 3-4 days of ridging max. Wet to almost AR events followed. Then a 3 day cold snap....wash, rinse and repeat. Tons of snow in the pscz that year.

[Gradient Keeper]

I was driving northbound 97 on way to my cabin tuesday and witnessed a head on crash in front of me. Both cars were demolished. A Tahoe and a honda pilot it looked like. The Honda was upside down and smoking. I ran over to check on the people and the person was dead. The other people in the Tahoe were fine. I could smell alcohol on them. Still shaken up about this. Those people out there drinking and driving are taking lives everday!!

Oh my lord man. What a terrible thing to witness. So sorry. Yeah drunk drivers to hell with them and all the public service announcements, all of the awareness, it just doesn't seem to make any difference. Very angering.

 

00z GFS in 1 hour 14 minutes

[Deweydog]

I was driving northbound 97 on way to my cabin tuesday and witnessed a head on crash in front of me. Both cars were demolished. A Tahoe and a honda pilot it looked like. The Honda was upside down and smoking. I ran over to check on the people and the person was dead. The other people in the Tahoe were fine. I could smell alcohol on them. Still shaken up about this. Those people out there drinking and driving are taking lives everday!!

97 is a death trap.

[Guest CulverJosh]

97 is a death trap.

So is hwy 101. I have seen 3 fatal crashes in my lifetime there. Last one was between Seaside and Cannon Beach. Two SUVs head-on. One was launched 10' in the air. The elderly couple who caused it died. I was bringing water to the old man when I watched him gasp his last breath.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was driving northbound 97 on way to my cabin tuesday and witnessed a head on crash in front of me. Both cars were demolished. A Tahoe and a honda pilot it looked like. The Honda was upside down and smoking. I ran over to check on the people and the person was dead. The other people in the Tahoe were fine. I could smell alcohol on them. Still shaken up about this. Those people out there drinking and driving are taking lives everday!!

 

My God man. These tragedies go on every day around us and unless we see it or it takes the life of a loved one, we go on as if it is nothing. 

 

I witnessed a really bad wreck a few years ago on my way to work and I will never forget it. When you see something like that it doesn't register at first, poor guy fell asleep coming home from work and rolled his car. He survived, but they had to bring the life flight in. The Silver Falls Hwy between here and Silverton sees so many accidents I have lost count after a while. Lots of people unfamiliar with the area come up here and miss the corners, a teen girl was killed at the end of September. Just so sad and in almost all cases preventable. 

 

I googled the crash you witnessed. Prayers for that woman's family, prayers to you for having had to see such a thing. Looks like the other driver is being charged with vehicular homicide. As a nation we really need to wake up collectively about this. 

 

This has been on my mind a lot lately, a drunk driver plowed through a red light and hit a car, killing 3 teenage girls a couple months ago in Salem near my office. I drive by the memorial every day on the way to and from work. I can't shake the sadness that washes over me when I see it. 

[TT-SEA]

The nice thing is we arent getting incessant ridging that lasts days and days. The northern jet continues to collapse instead of showing nonstop persistence.

 

Kind of reminds me of Nov/Dec 2005 in Everett, albeit drier. Seemed like 3-4 days of ridging max. Wet to almost AR events followed. Then a 3 day cold snap....wash, rinse and repeat. Tons of snow in the pscz that year.

 

 

Your memory is a little off... there was lots of ridging from mid-November through about 12/20 that year (one big snow event here in the middle) and lots of raging east wind.

 

Then the faucet turned on and it rained for 6 weeks straight from 12/20 through 2/4.    Wettest January ever and longest rain streak in Seattle history.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

So is hwy 101. I have seen 3 fatal crashes in my lifetime there. Last one was between Seaside and Cannon Beach. Two SUVs head-on. One was launched 10' in the air. The elderly couple who caused it died. I was bringing water to the old man when I watched him gasp his last breath.

 

Yeah 101 is pretty awful. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Your memory is a little off... there was lots of ridging from mid-November through about 12/20 that year (one big snow event here in the middle) and lots of raging east wind.

 

Then the faucet turned on and it rained for 6 weeks straight from 12/20 through 2/4.    Wettest January ever and longest rain streak in Seattle history.  

 

That January really sucked. 

[TT-SEA]

I was driving northbound 97 on way to my cabin tuesday and witnessed a head on crash in front of me. Both cars were demolished. A Tahoe and a honda pilot it looked like. The Honda was upside down and smoking. I ran over to check on the people and the person was dead. The other people in the Tahoe were fine. I could smell alcohol on them. Still shaken up about this. Those people out there drinking and driving are taking lives everday!!

 

Horrific.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Probably mixing up 2005 and '06. I drove my brother to Seatac airport on Thanksgiving one of those 2 years and we had a foot of snow up where I was near Lake Stevens. And we had 2 or 3 more really good ones before Xmas.

[MossMan]

I heard the sounds of the crunching of the power chair going under the bus, my co worker and I were the first ones to get to the bus, the sight of the resident contorted under the bus with his head swelling by the moment will stick with me forever. He ended up surviving about two weeks after but ultimately succumbed to his major injuries.

https://www.heraldnet.com/news/man-in-wheelchair-hit-by-bus-seriously-injured/

[MossMan]

Probably mixing up 2005 and '06. I drove my brother to Seatac airport on Thanksgiving one of those 2 years and we had a foot of snow up where I was near Lake Stevens. And we had 2 or 3 more really good ones before Xmas.

2006. It was epic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I heard the sounds of the crunching of the power chair going under the bus, my co worker and I were the first ones to get to the bus, the sight of the resident contorted under the bus with his head swelling by the moment will stick with me forever. He ended up surviving about two weeks after but ultimately succumbed to his major injuries.

https://www.heraldnet.com/news/man-in-wheelchair-hit-by-bus-seriously-injured/

 

Oh no.

 

 

2006. It was epic.

 

I was living out in Oklahoma and when that whole system moved east it caused a massive snow event in NE Oklahoma 

 

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Ya. Too bad I cant find any blog or forum accounts of 2006. If anyone has some stuff on that year I would love to see it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I know I closely followed the 2006 event from afar. I don't remember if that was mostly on Mark's blog or on here, I remember lurking on this forum when I was living in Oklahoma, but it could have been later. 

[MossMan]

Ya. Too bad I cant find any blog or forum accounts of 2006. If anyone has some stuff on that year I would love to see it.

Used to be archived here but is it no longer?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Big move towards EURO HR 60-84

[Gradient Keeper]

Past 6 GFS runs centered at Day 4. Big move towards colder EURO

 

Animated GIF https://imgur.com/a/0tYgyaz

[Deweydog]

Nice weekend coming up according to the 00z!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z GFS Big move towards EURO HR 60-84

 

IDK if its a big move, but yeah its a little further west. That is an INSANE airmass for late October. Sub 504 thickness!