High Desert Mat? Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Low is too far south. Maybe it’ll trend north some which it’s likely to do. We shall see. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 So far I feel the 18Z was a bit better just because of the low placement. It's gonna change of course, but getting it at about Eureka would be perfect. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Does look colder at this point compared to 18z. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 With this setup we could possibly see something spin up off the Canadian coast and slide down over the area. Lots of potential! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Much potential! 1 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Does look colder at this point compared to 18z. Compare it to the 12z. Wow. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 The 0z GFS gets off to an even stronger start with the cold snap than the 18z. Every run is trending stronger on the positive height anoms with the initial flat offshore ridge. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Ah, Rich “There is no Santa and God is a lie so stop praying for snow because climo doesn’t support it and no one even likes it anyway you stupid weather nerd” Marriot.Exactly! November 1996. I will never forget when his warm bias bit him on the butt! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Sooo exhausted. Just trying to stay awake for EURO.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 With this setup we could possibly see something spin up off the Canadian coast and slide down over the area. Lots of potential!Yeah, it's gonna be fun tracking this thing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Is that low in the northern GOA going to track east or drop south? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Sooo exhausted. Just trying to stay awake for EURO....If you fall asleep it won’t run. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 ICON seems to agree on where that low goes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 We definitely have a SE ridge now. 6 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Sooo exhausted. Just trying to stay awake for EURO....Forum model watchers 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Those surface gradients are going to really get things cold around here. Deep cold with favorable gradients. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Looks like overall the run was a bit warmer, but still a good run and lots of potential abound! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Sooo exhausted. Just trying to stay awake for EURO....Forum model watchers 9D06C0EA-9368-49EA-86F8-6538367DE03E.gifSame here, running on adrenaline right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Forum model watchers 9D06C0EA-9368-49EA-86F8-6538367DE03E.gifSomething like that. Fell asleep 4 AM dealing with my knee, then up at 7 AM for Doctor appointment.... VERY unlikely for a night shift for me but haha, I'm going to try! 00z EURO in 1 hours 4 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 This is different. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Those surface gradients are going to really get things cold around here. Deep cold with favorable gradients. Yeah looking like the surface numbers will be a lot more impressive than 850s probably. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Looks like something fun digging down the coast as we get toward day 10. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yeah definitely warmer run. Sorry guyz. Maybe next winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 This is different. Looks like a frontal system. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 We can start looking at the UKMET now. Here it is at day 6. http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Pretty easy to see what went wrong. Warmer temps! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Looks like overall the run was a bit warmer, but still a good run and lots of potential abound! I think it gets off to a colder start though. That's the most believable range at this point. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 December is fooked. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Winter cancel. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Pretty easy to see what went wrong. Warmer temps! I'm not even worried about anything beyond day 7 or so yet. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 So much for our December 2005 redux. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 It’s over. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Next week could feature some 44/31 type days at PDX though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Yeah it doesn't quite go too well after D10 compared to 18z vs It's over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Over before it all began In all honesty I'm not worried about anything past day ten. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 I feel like all the energy just left this forum. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 It gets cold again just after day 11. Pretty crazy to worry too much about things that far out yet. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Since we are being vulnerable...I am sad now and need a hug. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 A great run as far as I'm concerned. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted November 21, 2019 Report Share Posted November 21, 2019 Ah, Rich “There is no Santa and God is a lie so stop praying for snow because climo doesn’t support it and no one even likes it anyway you stupid weather nerd” Marriot.This is mod preview worthy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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