May 2023 Observations and Discussion

[gabel23]

 

 

Gonna be close for you @CentralNebWeather. The main line looks like it's splitting. I have seen this before, the southern part of this line will head into Kansas and the northern half is gonna die out. Hope you get some rain but not looking good down stream towards us in the eastern end. 

 

[Tom]

KC peeps next in line?  @Stormy Did you say your friends or relatives moved to KS or was it C NE?

 

[CentralNebWeather]

We are hosting district track today. We are obviously delayed, but a nice storm so far. 

[CentralNebWeather]

43 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

 

 

Gonna be close for you @CentralNebWeather. The main line looks like it's splitting. I have seen this before, the southern part of this line will head into Kansas and the northern half is gonna die out. Hope you get some rain but not looking good down stream towards us in the eastern end. 

 

Getting a nice rain. Worst did just go south of town. But with track today, everyone is hoping it moves through. Our high school has no school today as teachers help with district track. They will delay as long as possible with state spots on the line. 

[Stormy]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

KC peeps next in line?  @Stormy Did you say your friends or relatives moved to KS or was it C NE?

 

Central NE. But I also have family in south central KS and various other states. 

[CentralNebWeather]

7 minutes ago, Stormy said:

Central NE. But I also have family in south central KS and various other states. 

I’m in Holdrege, Southwest of Kearney. 

[gabel23]

Don't think I have ever seen tornado warnings in nebraska in the morning!!!

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Don't think I have ever seen tornado warnings in nebraska in the morning!!!

Just to my south. We are getting heavy rain. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain continues with lightning. Our track meet has now been delayed for 3 hours. 

[Iceresistance]

Nothing from me, yet... Thursday could be big for me

[Tom]

I'm diggin' what I'm seeing out here starting on Mother's Day and into the following week.  A very unusual set up is going to occur that doesn't typically happen till around late June with the Monsoon.  DP's are to surge into the 40's/50's (which isn't saying much for the rest of ya'll) but this will fuel up storm action across the mountain ranges and push SW into the valley.  I would love to see some severe storms bc this would be a "first" for me to experience it in the month of May.

 

 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Rain continues with lightning. Our track meet has now been delayed for 3 hours. 

Looks like around 0.95” as of 12:30. What a great rain. Track meet now tentatively scheduled to begin at 1:30. They are concerned about more storms this evening. It might be a race the weather day. 

[OKwx2k4]

Will be interesting to see what this "tropical punch" type storm out of the TX Gulf region does. 

I know N TX needs the rainfall still, especially western areas.

Seeing this storm cycle through on models, along with the ensuing trough that ships it out of here is one of the reasons I have to agree with seasonal models indicating a cooler than average and shorter than average summer overall. When you see ridges get "attacked" by troughs like that, going to be hard to set up any large-scale heat domes like in years past. I think our northeastern cities and farthest north will struggle with most above average temperatures this summer. Mainly due to persistence but also likely still NAO/AO region influence being greater than old -enso/pdo ridging influences upstream. 

[gabel23]

Watch this as the rain shield to the north hits my county just like hitting a wall. My county is the one between York and Columbus. Rain shield goes from yellow, green to nothing as it goes across my county. Just tough to break through; drought is the hardest thing to bust. More chances throughout the week but it's tough to get anything major to affect the large chuck of exceptional drought. 

 

 

[gabel23]

Sorry guys to rant, last post. Just two days ago the circled area for 7 day qpf was 2-3". We are now down to .25-.50". Just frustrating. 

[CentralNebWeather]

1 hour ago, gabel23 said:

Sorry guys to rant, last post. Just two days ago the circled area for 7 day qpf was 2-3". We are now down to .25-.50". Just frustrating. 

I feel your pain. Looked like that rain shield went south of you. Our 0.95” had pretty well soaked in, very little standing water. Let’s Hope something develops tonight for you. It is now sunny here, track meet in full swing. 

[CentralNebWeather]

This is a forecast that we love to see. 

 

[Clinton]

Some moderate rain falling atm with the heavier storms moving by to my SW.  I sure am glad to see water falling from the sky again.

[Clinton]

I picked up .28 inches last night, not much but at least its a start.  Slight rain chances this afternoon but better rain chances tomorrow.

[Andie]

15 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I feel your pain. Looked like that rain shield went south of you. Our 0.95” had pretty well soaked in, very little standing water. Let’s Hope something develops tonight for you. It is now sunny here, track meet in full swing. 

It’s going to be a super soaker here.  I’m ready as I can be!  Planted summer flowers yesterday.  Let it pour.  

[westMJim]

Good morning! Yesterday was a very nice early May day with the official H/L of 73/44. There was 94% of possible sunshine. There was no rain fall. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was set in 1896 and the record low of 22 was set in 1966. The record snow fall amount of 5.5” was in 1902 that tied May 9, 1923 for the May record. There was 2.0” at Lansing on that 1902 date and 4” at Muskegon. The record rain fall amount is 3.53” set in 1981.

The next week looks to be mostly mild with highs in the upper 70’s up to Saturday and then the upper 60’s to low 70’s there looks to be a good chance of showers on Friday and a chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday

[chescowxman]

Some of the relative low spots under 400 feet ASL made it down into the 30's this AM. Should be a nice couple of days to finish out the work week with temps reaching the low 70's today and upper 70's tomorrow. Shower chances on the increase by Friday night into Saturday, Sunny for Mom's day.

Records for today: High 94 (1896) / Low 27 (1966) / Rain 1.76" (1990)

[chescowxman]

14 minutes ago, westMJim said:

Good morning! Yesterday was a very nice early May day with the official H/L of 73/44. There was 94% of possible sunshine. There was no rain fall. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was set in 1896 and the record low of 22 was set in 1966. The record snow fall amount of 5.5” was in 1902 that tied May 9, 1923 for the May record. There was 2.0” at Lansing on that 1902 date and 4” at Muskegon. The record rain fall amount is 3.53” set in 1981.

The next week looks to be mostly mild with highs in the upper 70’s up to Saturday and then the upper 60’s to low 70’s there looks to be a good chance of showers on Friday and a chance of showers on Saturday and Sunday

Just about exactly the same average temps here today as there...don't think that happens often. Have a great day Jim!

Paul

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I picked up .28 inches last night, not much but at least its a start.  Slight rain chances this afternoon but better rain chances tomorrow.

Great.  I got 0.30" more at about 3 AM this morning with a very loud storm with torrential rain for a short period of time.  

[Iceresistance]

Tomorrow is looking insane for me...

[Tom]

I'm glad to see some of our members on here getting MUCH welcomed precip.  This week has been targeted to be one of the better chances in a long time and it appears that it will continue through the weekend.  @AndieMother's Day washout looks likely as well as back home in the Chicago area it doesn't look to nice.

 

[Tom]

As the trough moves directly over my head today, it'll eventually eject out into CO and literally get blocked up by the expansive W NAMER ridge and pull GOM moisture into the Plains states.  One of the best opportunities for cool and wet weather and allow for a good multi-day soaking rainfall, esp the ag belts!

 

 

[Clinton]

48 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Great.  I got 0.30" more at about 3 AM this morning with a very loud storm with torrential rain for a short period of time.  

I hope we get more between now and Sunday!

[CentralNebWeather]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope we get more between now and Sunday!

My area and west looks to be in a pretty good spot through Friday.  I'm fearful some in Eastern Nebraska may not be so fortunate as the upper level low may dry slot that part of the area as it moves north.  Hopefully trends improve.

[hawkstwelve]

Thought this was a pretty awesome, rare video.

Tornado on top of a mountain in Montana.

[Andie]

THAT is amazing!

[CentralNebWeather]

18Z HRRR going crazy with rainfall over my area in the next 48 hours.  Looks like over 4" if this verifies.  Even half of that would be amazing.

[Clinton]

Oklahoma peeps:

Tweet

 

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

 

Yes I am seeing major #tornado potential tomorrow PM in OK with a classic dry line setup tornado threat includes OKC. Keep an eye on this Oklahomans

 

 

11:59 AM · May 10, 2023

 

[Bryan1117]

On 5/9/2023 at 2:07 PM, gabel23 said:

Sorry guys to rant, last post. Just two days ago the circled area for 7 day qpf was 2-3". We are now down to .25-.50". Just frustrating. 

Horrible pattern continues for Eastern Nebraska, went from decent daily rain and storm chances (50% multiple days) to absolutely nothing the last 3 days.

Honestly I am betting that we get missed again by the moisture that was previously forecasted for later this week, which will be before another dry and warm spell sets in around here… this drought obviously isn’t going anywhere as we continue to be stuck with the same pattern over and over again.

[CentralNebWeather]

Pouring rain here at 9:30. What an incredible weather change in the last few days. 

[westMJim]

Good morning! The official H/L yesterday was 75/45 there was no rain fall and 100% of possible sunshine.  The overnight low here in MBY so far is 47 and that is the current temperature as well with clear skies. For today the average H/L is 68/47 the record high of 89 was set in 1896 and 1922 the record low of 28 was set in 1907 The record rain fall of 2.88” fell in 1981. Last year on this date the H/L was 87/66 for a very warm May day.

Today looks to be the warmest day in the next week with highs today in the low 80’s there is a chance of showers tomorrow and a small chance of showers on Sunday. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be in the mid to upper 70’s before dropping down to near to a little below average up to next Wednesday.

[chescowxman]

A couple beautiful warm days ahead to close out the work week! Highs today in the upper 70's with Low 80's tomorrow across Chester County. There is a chance of some rain Saturday morning...which we could really use but then back to a pretty dry and near normal pattern for next week.

Records for today: High 93 (1896)/ Low 28 (1947)/ Rain 1.30" (1981)

[CentralNebWeather]

Forecast through tomorrow.  Yes please.

Today

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Breezy, with an east southeast wind 5 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 4am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 4am. Some storms could be severe, with large hail and damaging winds. Low around 56. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Friday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

[Tom]

11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Pouring rain here at 9:30. What an incredible weather change in the last few days. 

So thrilled to hear this my friend...the long awaited pattern change has cometh!  I just knew that it would turn things around for you, but we need to pray for our friends just to your East now!  @gabel23 @Bryan1117

IMO, the pattern post 20th/21st, esp during Memorial Day weekend,  is going to set up another cooler and wetter period for the central/southern Plains and into the GL's region.  Up farther north, it'll be quieter and chilly, but perfect for Bon fires!  Ahh, the smells of firewood burning is something that I yearn for...Oh, I forgot to mention, there was about 100 acres of land that burned just to my northeast a few days ago but it got knocked out pretty quick.  I did smell the fires in the early morning when we had a slight NE wind blowing it towards my place.

Check this out, the JMA weeklies concur with the idea of a cooler/wetter pattern establishing itself smack dab in the Heartland to close out May and open June.

Week 2...

 

Week 3-4...

 

Temp/Precip...

 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

3 nights of thunderstorms  last weekend barely yielded .40 on the final dying msc.  However today a rogue heavy thundershower put down .41 with very low chance! Gotta love the hit and miss, strips and stripes of midwest warm season rain!

[Stormy]

Models keep looking better for decent rains here the next few days, though a few still don't show much at all.

Looks like @OttumwaSnomow may have picked up the better rain for this area so far today. 

[Stormy]

4 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

3 nights of thunderstorms  last weekend barely yielded .40 on the final dying msc.  However today a rogue heavy thundershower put down .41 with very low chance! Gotta love the hit and miss, strips and stripes of midwest warm season rain!

Ha. Looks like we posted at the same time. Glad you got that much! 

Was it actually a thunder shower? Don't recall seeing any lightning strikes on the map for there. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

 

Heavy rain has begun. My goodness. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Rain hasn’t let up. 9 pm and still pouring. This is putting a dent in the drought. 

 

 

[Thunder98]

Its currently 83F with a dew point of 79F and fog in Brownsville Texas!

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Rain hasn’t let up. 9 pm and still pouring. This is putting a dent in the drought. 

 

Looks spectacular, especially with the lightning.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 minute ago, Thunder98 said:

Its currently 83F with a dew point of 79F and fog in Brownsville Texas!

 

 

That would be a nice marine layer to have. Actually, not that nice.

[Andie]

Heavy rain is on the way for Hill Country and the Valley in Texas.  Authorities are very concerned for people’s safety as the Rio Grande has a history for quickly changing character and becoming dangerous as the rain drains south. 
We need the rain but the timing is terrible.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a spectacular day. The official H/L was 81/48 there was no rain fall and 87% of possible sunshine. There were no cooling or heating degree days so a great “don’t have to day” that is don’t have to have air or heat. For today the average H/L is now 69/47 the record high for today is 87 set last year and the record low of 27 was set in 1981 the most rain fall of 1.43” fell in 1912.

Today and tomorrow look pleasantly mild with highs mostly in the mid to upper 70’s It looks to cool down on Mothers day and most of next week look to be near average. There is a chance of showers today and Sunday more so to the south.