May 2023 Observations and Discussion

[CentralNebWeather]

Dew point was 20 yesterday, today at 11:15 AM it is 53.  We should have plenty of fuel for storms that look possible over the next week or longer, as dews keep climbing to potentially the low 60's.  

[hawkstwelve]

Severe-warned thunderstorm has popped up NW of Sioux Falls. Should be arriving on my doorstep shortly.

 

[Bryan1117]

10 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

Yeah already not starting off good here as our 50-70% chance of heavy rain and storms tonight (from as recent as this AM) has seem to have almost completely evaporated and moved north again. 

It’s honestly time for this garbage to stop… nearly two years of this pattern of being missed constantly is enough!

[Andie]

We’re expecting 93 for a High tomorrow.  I think this is our first 90*+ day.

Currently scattered thunderstorms and 76*.  Nice to see an active radar.  20% chance of rain tomorrow.  
 

edit:  I just noticed we have rain in the forecast for the next 5 days.  Temps in the 80’s, lower 90’s.  
We had scattered showers tonight. I just got damp!  

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[westMJim]

I did a lot of yard work yesterday getting the garden ready. It was a nice spring day with the official H/L of 64/38 while very nice it was still a little below average for the date. The was a total of 41% of possible sunshine and late in the afternoon a cloud came by and there was a trace of rain fall from that cloud. The overnight low so far for today is 48 and the current reading here in MBY is 49 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 66/45 The record high of 89 was set in 1959 and the record low of 28 was set in 1983. The record snow fall of 0.3” fell in 1954 and the record rain fall of 1.76” fell in 1976. Now while that 89 is the reported highest for the date in Weather History we have this for May 5th 1895: An early season heat wave peaks with record highs of 96 degrees at Grand Rapids and 92 at Lansing. The 96 degrees at Grand Rapids is a record for so early in the season. And the record for today in 1895 is reported as missing.

Starting today we are in for some nice warm spring weather with highs in the low to mid 70’s and lows in the low to mid 50’s there are several chances for showers and or thunderstorms.

[Stormy]

21 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

The models are shifting the best rainfall to my north for this weekend so I'm not expecting much at all. CR looks to have better chances. 

I'm already watering plants which is almost unheard of this time of the year.  I hope it's not a bone dry May and June like in 1992! Then in July that year was the wettest month of my records followed by a very wet fall and the flood year of 1993!

[Stormy]

11 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah already not starting off good here as our 50-70% chance of heavy rain and storms tonight (from as recent as this AM) has seem to have almost completely evaporated and moved north again. 

It’s honestly time for this garbage to stop… nearly two years of this pattern of being missed constantly is enough!

Many models show much of your state getting very good rains though I'm not sure about eastern Nebraska. Hopefully it'll pan out for you! 

[Clinton]

The weekend is looking warm for KC, record breaking heat with slight storm chances possible Saturday and Sunday.  Most will nor receive any rainfall so drought conditions will likely worsen.

[chescowxman]

Some lower spots dipped into the 30's this morning. That could well be the last temp that low till October. It looks like we have 2 more below normal temperature days today and tomorrow before we warm to normal Sunday and above normal on Monday.

Records for today: High 90 (1919) / Low 28 (1926) / Rain 1.49" (2019)

[Andie]

It’s 72 at 7:30 and humidity at 61%. 
Kinda dampish.     
”Rain” in forecast till Sat.  (Doubt it)

More likely Sunday/Monday.  

[Tom]

It's a chilly, but refreshing morning here as we have dipped down to 54F and heading into the low 80's. Amazing weather for this time of year, albeit, it has been a bit windy that past few days.

0z EPS is showing it best with a summery and wet pattern for the MW/Plains Ag belt...

 

[westMJim]

37 minutes ago, Tom said:

a chilly, but refreshing morning here as we have dipped down to 54F

That must fell cold to you, as  you have been there for a long time.

[Tom]

48 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That must fell cold to you, as  you have been there for a long time.

Oh ya, no doubt about it!  Just got back from a 2 mile walk around the fountain in shorts and a T-shirt...if the sun wasn't out, I'd need a hoodie but the glorious sunshine did the trick.

[Tom]

Gosh, the 12z runs so far today really dile up a strong signal for rounds of MCS’s from IA/IL into parts of MO!

[Stormy]

Many models are looking better again for rainfall here though hard telling what will actually transpire. The first round in central Iowa will probably just brush past to the north unless it moves due east and develops south a bit. But I'm hopeful that heat and humidity will fire storms at some point. 

[CentralNebWeather]

 

[Andie]

96* at 6 pm.  Geez.  A bit early for this heat if you ask me.  
Rain to our SW. we MAY see a shower out of it but won’t hold my breath. 
Heat index 104*.
 

edit: 7:20

The storms have progressed east and while I won’t get any rain from them the air is amazing!  
Must be at or below 90. Don’t care it feels awesome. Just a pleasant breeze under cloud cover.  Can I order more?! Just a really nice Texas style evening.  

[CentralNebWeather]

My dome just wouldn’t budge. Severe thunderstorm warnings for me and my county. Not one drop of rain at my house. Was only missed in 3 directions this time. Really don’t know what it will take to get rain. 

[westMJim]

Recently the question was brought up as to if it was “safe” to plant.   At Grand Rapids the average last 32 day in May 1st the latest is June 4th the average last 33 day is May 5th the  latest is June 11th the average last 35 day is May 11 the latest is June 11th At Lansing the average last 32 day is May 9th the latest is July 15th (on July 15, 1863 the low at Lansing was reported as 31.) The average last 33 day at Lansing is May 13 the average last 35 day is May 13th  The average last 35 day is May 20th At Muskegon the average last 32 day is May 4th the latest June 22nd the average last 33 day is May 14 the latest is June 22nd  Remember these are the dates at the official stations and it is often colder outside of the official stations readings. That should give you a general idea if it is safe to plant yet.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/46 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 62% of the time. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 50. For today the average H/L is 66/45 the record high of 90 was set in 1959 and the record low of 25 was set in 1968.

There is a good chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm today thru Sunday. It will be warm today and Sunday but cooler for Monday and Tuesday then warm for the rest of the week ahead. Highs will range from the upper 60’s to a chance of upper 70’s by Friday.

[Clinton]

This morning is off to a mild and sticky start, current temp is 64 with a dew point of 62.  Rain chances remain low as moderate drought has now spread into my area and severe drought is now just 20 miles to my south.  Best rain chances for my area appear to be Sunday night and Monday, plenty of heat and instability so anything that pops could be strong.

[Stormy]

Got 0.26" overnight. Not much, but it's a start and more than I expected. It's looking pretty good for some storms here between now and Monday, especially late Sunday. My sister's place in Nebraska saw a nice bowing line of storms overnight, making this their second consecutive night of storms. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Ive had .42 rain in 16 days. Wall to wall sun sunday to thurs. So am watering hard. 40 to 60 mph winds and low low humidity.  Might as well be August. Yet probably  above avg precip since September.  Warm season  rain is pathetically  sporadic  here since 2012. High water bills. And the worst?  High paying customers  blaming me why their acres of grass seed wont grow!

[Bryan1117]

11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My dome just wouldn’t budge. Severe thunderstorm warnings for me and my county. Not one drop of rain at my house. Was only missed in 3 directions this time. Really don’t know what it will take to get rain. 

Nothing here either, so far we have picked up a trace of rainfall since Thursday night as all the rain and storms were west and north last night, and today’s action looks to be mostly east… rainfall chances are all of a sudden looking pretty meager (less than 20%) the next 4 days. 

Not surprised that we keep getting screwed here in East Central Nebraska… long live the drought.

[chescowxman]

Today will be our 13th but last below normal day in a row. However, we will be close to our normal high temperature of 67 degrees. Both Sunday and Monday look to be slightly above normal temps but with some shower chances returning by Monday night. We should see temps cool to below normal again by mid-week.

Records for today: High 91 (1934)/ Low 30 (1968) / Rain 1.57" (1989)

[Tom]

Long Live the "MCS"...the seasons first???  Yup, the pattern is going to be ripe this summer for these occurrences...let's see what happens Sun pm into Mon am...all the variables are at play, but what will Mother Nature have to say???

 

[CentralNebWeather]

More storms rolled in last night and missed my area to the north. I was missed in all 4 directions over 7 hours. That is quite an accomplishment. Not one drop. Areas within a few miles had 0.50-1.5”. Some places north of here had upwards of 4” in the last 2 nights. 

[Stormy]

1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Ive had .42 rain in 16 days. Wall to wall sun sunday to thurs. So am watering hard. 40 to 60 mph winds and low low humidity.  Might as well be August. Yet probably  above avg precip since September.  Warm season  rain is pathetically  sporadic  here since 2012. High water bills. And the worst?  High paying customers  blaming me why their acres of grass seed wont grow!

We should be averaging 1"+ rainfall per week now. May and June normally are, and were the wettest months since I began recording in 1990. Both months averaged a bit over 5" since that time here! I had only 1.61" this past April which isn't even 50% of normal. 

[westMJim]

At the current time it is cloudy and 63 here in MBY. I cut the grass this morning for the 3rd time this spring

[CentralNebWeather]

2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Nothing here either, so far we have picked up a trace of rainfall since Thursday night as all the rain and storms were west and north last night, and today’s action looks to be mostly east… rainfall chances are all of a sudden looking pretty meager (less than 20%) the next 4 days. 

Not surprised that we keep getting screwed here in East Central Nebraska… long live the drought.

I watched the radar all night. I was 100% sure we would get hit. My family looked at the radar also and were just in shock how the storms refused to hit our area. We kid about the dome, but last night you’d swear something odd was happening. Have to hope for something next week, or our bad situation will get worse. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

More storms rolled in last night and missed my area to the north. I was missed in all 4 directions over 7 hours. That is quite an accomplishment. Not one drop. Areas within a few miles had 0.50-1.5”. Some places north of here had upwards of 4” in the last 2 nights. 

Same here missed in all directions with barely a sprinkle. 

[Tom]

3 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I watched the radar all night. I was 100% sure we would get hit. My family looked at the radar also and were just in shock how the storms refused to hit our area. We kid about the dome, but last night you’d swear something odd was happening. Have to hope for something next week, or our bad situation will get worse. 

It's interesting to see that this year, your on the sidelines watching every storm miss you, when last year, it was the opposite and you were actually getting hit and everyone else in E NE got missed.  Is that a fair statement?  I swear I saw many videos that you posted last summer showing monsoonal rain, in fact, I think the year prior in '21 the same happened, right?  I think it might have been 2020 bc as the summer went on it got wetter.  2021 was a good summer for E NE.

June-Aug 2022...

 

[Hawkeye]

I received a solid 0.68" of rain last night.  There was no lightning/thunder, just several hours of light rain with an occasional better shower.  The NWS isn't sure how the next two days will play out.  Some of the short-term models (hrrr, fv3, rrfs) are predicting good storms will blow up near Cedar Rapids tonight and then a huge MCS blows up Sunday night.  On one hand, we need the rain.  On the other, it's no fun planting the garden when it's muddy.

[Clinton]

SPC has an enhanced risk of severe weather for some tomorrow.  Please rain!

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[CentralNebWeather]

I’m in another severe thunderstorm warning. Looking at the radar, it appears the storm may miss me again by a mile or two. Is there a miracle tonight?  We’ll see. 

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

It's interesting to see that this year, your on the sidelines watching every storm miss you, when last year, it was the opposite and you were actually getting hit and everyone else in E NE got missed.  Is that a fair statement?  I swear I saw many videos that you posted last summer showing monsoonal rain, in fact, I think the year prior in '21 the same happened, right?  I think it might have been 2020 bc as the summer went on it got wetter.  2021 was a good summer for E NE.

June-Aug 2022...

 

Had one good month last summer. We were in such a deficit, that we could never catch up. Finished close to 10” below normal for 2022. Had some decent snow this winter, but have gone extremely dry again since March. Having the Ogallala Aquifer is our saving grace. 

[CentralNebWeather]

55 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I’m in another severe thunderstorm warning. Looking at the radar, it appears the storm may miss me again by a mile or two. Is there a miracle tonight?  We’ll see. 

We ended up with about 0.20” with a brief period of pea sized hail. Much more hail and rain reported north of town.  Thankful for at least getting something. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the brief storm this evening that dropped 0.20”. If you notice across the street, the neighbor’s trees are just starting to get a few leaves. Most trees in town are a couple of weeks behind schedule  

 

 

 

[Stormy]

7 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

I received a solid 0.68" of rain last night.  There was no lightning/thunder, just several hours of light rain with an occasional better shower.  The NWS isn't sure how the next two days will play out.  Some of the short-term models (hrrr, fv3, rrfs) are predicting good storms will blow up near Cedar Rapids tonight and then a huge MCS blows up Sunday night.  On one hand, we need the rain.  On the other, it's no fun planting the garden when it's muddy.

I planted most of the garden now, but I don't want the newly emerged and other plants battered by a bad storm either. Need about 2" of rain though, and many of the CAMS show up to around that amount somewhere in eastern Iowa. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

30 minutes ago, Stormy said:

I planted most of the garden now, but I don't want the newly emerged and other plants battered by a bad storm either. Need about 2" of rain though and many of the CAMS show up to around that amount somewhere in eastern Iowa. 

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia and in my youthful ignorance had way better gardens!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 day rain free periods! Genetically  modified Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! I used to be convinced that may was the only month that one can rely on precip  here 2017 it stopped  raining may 16th .End of rant

[Andie]

7 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia!!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 rain free periods! Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! End of rant

I understand.  
Texas can hand out the craziest dxxx weather.  Flood, Fire, and Famine!   
I just give in and accept the water bill.  
 

We’re getting flood tonight.  Heavy thunderstorms across No Tx.  We need the rain so it’s good news.  
Thunderstorm warning just came across my iPhone.  

[Stormy]

55 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I planted onions, potatoes  and lettuce on april 10th. Most  isnt even up!  Despite  me watering  daily past 5 days!  I know noone wants to hear this. But this blessed iowa dirt has cursed iowa weather! I know, i gardened in Maryland, Pennsylvania,  and the mountains  of Bolivia and in my youthful ignorance had way better gardens!! Give me the rocks this place can have this stupid weather!  Too many 10 to 25 day rain free periods! Corn n beans are what grows here. And some very  hardy native plants like red cedars and rubarb! End of rant

I planted on April 12 which was to early even for hardier things. Normally don't plant garden till late April or May so I blame myself. It was just way to chilly for things to rapidly germinate. Once soiI temps are warmer things pop up much sooner. Even with rain later things probably wouldn't have done much better, as cold as it was with frosts. Another thing that was bad was soon after I planted we had a cold rain which is bad for seeds, or at least farmers don't want that happening! A warm rain would've been great. Your seeds may not come through if they haven't yet. I was even dumb enough to plant some beans, and much (not all) of it came up, surprisingly. 

[Stormy]

11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Here is the brief storm this evening that dropped 0.20”. If you notice across the street, the neighbor’s trees are just starting to get a few leaves. Most trees in town are a couple of weeks behind schedule  

IMG_1163.MOV 79.92 MB · 0 downloads  

 

 

County yourself fortunate considering how isolated that cell was, and it appeared to have large hail somewhere. 

[Stormy]

Just now I storm blew up right nearby and there's constant lightning.  It will pour pretty soon I think 

[Andie]

Several sizable storms last night. Heavy rain. 
Currently 69 Humifity 90%
High of 87.  

[westMJim]

Yesterday the official H/L was 69/50. There was 0.03” of rain fall and just 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was 56 and I recorded 0.17” of rain fall up to 7AM The current temperature is 57 here in my yard. For today the average H/L is now up to 67/45 the record high of 89 was set in 1965 and the record low of 25 was set in 1974. The record rain fall of 1.70” fell in 1932.

Currently the next two weeks look to be warmer than average. Then according to the CFSv2 turning to below to near average in weeks 3 and 4. Even with the rain in this weeks forecast the CFSv2 has the Great Lakes area on the dry side.

[Clinton]

Eastern Nebraska and Iowa peeps are under the gun today.  HRRR has been showing some very beneficial rains for southern and central Iowa.   Yesterdays record breaking heat produced a damaging tornado in northern MO last night.  Yesterday high temperature was 94 for mby breaking the old record of 89 set in 2004 and 1970.

[Tom]

Love reading all your comments on the storm action all across the board.  Glad to see that many areas are seeing rain out of this pattern and one that is likely to continue to produce numerous more chances as we roll on through this month.  

The Heartland of the Nation is where the main action is going to be over the next few days and remainder of the week...IA bullseye??  Let's see if a legit MCS can fire up later tonight...DSM magnet?

 

Storm reports from yesterday...

 

 

[Clinton]

Reed Timmer intercepted the wedge tornado near Linneus, Missouri.

 

[Tom]

Mother's Day weekend is looking interesting around these parts as a trough gets cutoff off over the Baja region and pulls Tropical moisture north into the 4 corners.  This is more or less a Monsoon set up.  Mother Nature giving us a clue???  Storms are to fire up over the mountain ranges and rush Southwest into the valley. This is very odd to see in the month of May which is typically our driest, or 2nd driest month out of the year.