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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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as Tom mentioned-- this was nuts- ( heaviest snow event in MAY East of the Rockies)

 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-upper-peninsula-winter-storm-smashing-snowfall-records

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Today's forecast is giving us a 20-30% chance of rain over the next 6 days. 

So, I don't know where they get their weather!  Highs 84-93 Pretty usual for now.  The map looks like rain to me. And this time of year is notorious for doing a 180* on forecasters.  So, I'll just be ready for both!  That's the rule here in May anyway. 

P.S. - The STate Power generators are warning us of potential brownouts during peak summer heat. 

Seems all these out-of-state people moving in and building these big houses are going gobble up the energy  Solar and wind will help some but Texas wind dies in deep summer.  Just when we need it!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58/40 there was a reported trace of rain fall. There was a good amount of sun, but no percentage was give for yesterday. The overnight low at GRR looks to be 39. Here in MBY the low was 36. For today the average H/L is now up to 66/44 the record high of 88 was set in 1949 and the record low of 26 was set in 1971 and 2005. The most rain fall of 1.06” fell in 1902 and the record snow fall amount of 0.4” fell in 1954.

We are on tap for a much needed warm up and the next week looks to see highs in the low 70’s lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s with several chances of rain and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.

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It looks like today will be our 11th straight below normal day. In fact these 1st 3 days of May have been the coldest start to this month since 1945. It is the 3rd coldest start since 1894. Behind only 1945 and 1939. It looks like we have at least 2 more below normal days before warming to near normal by Saturday.
Records for today: High 91 (1913) / Low 31 (1909) / Rain 1.75" (1954)
image.png.1c08120c230d535372cb1fa5a920b3c7.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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In the middle of a 9 day tour with my band. Currently in Pittsburgh. The weather has been crap the entire time. 40s and rainy. This big Low has been following us from the midwest. Looks like things start improving today and for the remainder of the trip. We'll return to Iowa Sunday. 

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10 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

Yeah already not starting off good here as our 50-70% chance of heavy rain and storms tonight (from as recent as this AM) has seem to have almost completely evaporated and moved north again. 

It’s honestly time for this garbage to stop… nearly two years of this pattern of being missed constantly is enough!

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We’re expecting 93 for a High tomorrow.  I think this is our first 90*+ day.

Currently scattered thunderstorms and 76*.  Nice to see an active radar.  20% chance of rain tomorrow.  
 

edit:  I just noticed we have rain in the forecast for the next 5 days.  Temps in the 80’s, lower 90’s.  
We had scattered showers tonight. I just got damp!  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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I did a lot of yard work yesterday getting the garden ready. It was a nice spring day with the official H/L of 64/38 while very nice it was still a little below average for the date. The was a total of 41% of possible sunshine and late in the afternoon a cloud came by and there was a trace of rain fall from that cloud. The overnight low so far for today is 48 and the current reading here in MBY is 49 and cloudy. For today the average H/L is 66/45 The record high of 89 was set in 1959 and the record low of 28 was set in 1983. The record snow fall of 0.3” fell in 1954 and the record rain fall of 1.76” fell in 1976. Now while that 89 is the reported highest for the date in Weather History we have this for May 5th 1895: An early season heat wave peaks with record highs of 96 degrees at Grand Rapids and 92 at Lansing. The 96 degrees at Grand Rapids is a record for so early in the season. And the record for today in 1895 is reported as missing.

Starting today we are in for some nice warm spring weather with highs in the low to mid 70’s and lows in the low to mid 50’s there are several chances for showers and or thunderstorms.

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21 hours ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

The models are shifting the best rainfall to my north for this weekend so I'm not expecting much at all. 😩 CR looks to have better chances. 

I'm already watering plants which is almost unheard of this time of the year.🤮  I hope it's not a bone dry May and June like in 1992! Then in July that year was the wettest month of my records followed by a very wet fall and the flood year of 1993!

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11 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Yeah already not starting off good here as our 50-70% chance of heavy rain and storms tonight (from as recent as this AM) has seem to have almost completely evaporated and moved north again. 

It’s honestly time for this garbage to stop… nearly two years of this pattern of being missed constantly is enough!

Many models show much of your state getting very good rains though I'm not sure about eastern Nebraska. Hopefully it'll pan out for you! 

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Some lower spots dipped into the 30's this morning. That could well be the last temp that low till October. It looks like we have 2 more below normal temperature days today and tomorrow before we warm to normal Sunday and above normal on Monday.
Records for today: High 90 (1919) / Low 28 (1926) / Rain 1.49" (2019)
image.png.67067b7958abd327aa164368e227a525.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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It’s 72 at 7:30 and humidity at 61%. 
Kinda dampish. 😝     
”Rain” in forecast till Sat.  (Doubt it)

More likely Sunday/Monday.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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It's a chilly, but refreshing morning here as we have dipped down to 54F and heading into the low 80's. Amazing weather for this time of year, albeit, it has been a bit windy that past few days.

0z EPS is showing it best with a summery and wet pattern for the MW/Plains Ag belt...

 

image.gif

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48 minutes ago, westMJim said:

That must fell cold to you, as  you have been there for a long time.

Oh ya, no doubt about it!  Just got back from a 2 mile walk around the fountain in shorts and a T-shirt...if the sun wasn't out, I'd need a hoodie but the glorious sunshine did the trick.

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Many models are looking better again for rainfall here though hard telling what will actually transpire. The first round in central Iowa will probably just brush past to the north unless it moves due east and develops south a bit. But I'm hopeful that heat and humidity will fire storms at some point. 

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96* at 6 pm.  Geez.  A bit early for this heat if you ask me.  
Rain to our SW. we MAY see a shower out of it but won’t hold my breath. 
Heat index 104*. 😄
 

edit: 7:20

The storms have progressed east and while I won’t get any rain from them the air is amazing!  
Must be at or below 90. Don’t care it feels awesome. Just a pleasant breeze under cloud cover.  Can I order more?! Just a really nice Texas style evening.  

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Recently the question was brought up as to if it was “safe” to plant.   At Grand Rapids the average last 32 day in May 1st the latest is June 4th the average last 33 day is May 5th the  latest is June 11th the average last 35 day is May 11 the latest is June 11th At Lansing the average last 32 day is May 9th the latest is July 15th (on July 15, 1863 the low at Lansing was reported as 31.) The average last 33 day at Lansing is May 13 the average last 35 day is May 13th  The average last 35 day is May 20th At Muskegon the average last 32 day is May 4th the latest June 22nd the average last 33 day is May 14 the latest is June 22nd  Remember these are the dates at the official stations and it is often colder outside of the official stations readings. That should give you a general idea if it is safe to plant yet.

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 73/46 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 62% of the time. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 50. For today the average H/L is 66/45 the record high of 90 was set in 1959 and the record low of 25 was set in 1968.

There is a good chance of showers and maybe a thunderstorm today thru Sunday. It will be warm today and Sunday but cooler for Monday and Tuesday then warm for the rest of the week ahead. Highs will range from the upper 60’s to a chance of upper 70’s by Friday.

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This morning is off to a mild and sticky start, current temp is 64 with a dew point of 62.  Rain chances remain low as moderate drought has now spread into my area and severe drought is now just 20 miles to my south.  Best rain chances for my area appear to be Sunday night and Monday, plenty of heat and instability so anything that pops could be strong.

0d40d5_7c3bb3ee730d42529f5fea1617ddd112~mv2.png

United States Weekly Drought Monitor

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Got 0.26" overnight. Not much, but it's a start and more than I expected. It's looking pretty good for some storms here between now and Monday, especially late Sunday. My sister's place in Nebraska saw a nice bowing line of storms overnight, making this their second consecutive night of storms. 

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Ive had .42 rain in 16 days. Wall to wall sun sunday to thurs. So am watering hard. 40 to 60 mph winds and low low humidity.  Might as well be August. Yet probably  above avg precip since September.  Warm season  rain is pathetically  sporadic  here since 2012. High water bills. And the worst?  High paying customers  blaming me why their acres of grass seed wont grow!

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11 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

My dome just wouldn’t budge. Severe thunderstorm warnings for me and my county. Not one drop of rain at my house. Was only missed in 3 directions this time. Really don’t know what it will take to get rain. 

Nothing here either, so far we have picked up a trace of rainfall since Thursday night as all the rain and storms were west and north last night, and today’s action looks to be mostly east… rainfall chances are all of a sudden looking pretty meager (less than 20%) the next 4 days. 

Not surprised that we keep getting screwed here in East Central Nebraska… long live the drought.

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Today will be our 13th but last below normal day in a row. However, we will be close to our normal high temperature of 67 degrees. Both Sunday and Monday look to be slightly above normal temps but with some shower chances returning by Monday night. We should see temps cool to below normal again by mid-week.
Records for today: High 91 (1934)/ Low 30 (1968) / Rain 1.57" (1989)
image.png.9055f1296858009551826000d6a64cfd.png

All historical weather data analytics posted by me is specifically for the climate of Chester County PA.  We continually analyze the actual raw non-adjusted NWS certified Coop observed climate data for Chester County.  There have been no post observation adjustments to any of the detailed analytics. All data is sourced from trained NWS observers and spotters. The life blood of science is to challenge what is thought to be known. The concept that climate change etc. is somehow “settled science” describes a religion - a belief system that does not welcome challenges. We should all continue to challenge science!    Snow Totals 2023/24 = 24.5" -  11/28 (0.3") / 12/7 (0.8") / 12/11 (0.8") / 1/6 (2.0") / 1/16 (2.8") / 1/19 (4.5") / 2/13 (10.5") / 2/17 (2.8")

Average Chester County PA Snow at elevations over 660 FT ASL (1983-Present) = 35.9" Snow totals by season: 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Western Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us on the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx

National Weather Service  SKYWARN® Trained Spotter CHPA-174

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Long Live the "MCS"...the seasons first???  Yup, the pattern is going to be ripe this summer for these occurrences...let's see what happens Sun pm into Mon am...all the variables are at play, but what will Mother Nature have to say???

 

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1 hour ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Ive had .42 rain in 16 days. Wall to wall sun sunday to thurs. So am watering hard. 40 to 60 mph winds and low low humidity.  Might as well be August. Yet probably  above avg precip since September.  Warm season  rain is pathetically  sporadic  here since 2012. High water bills. And the worst?  High paying customers  blaming me why their acres of grass seed wont grow!

We should be averaging 1"+ rainfall per week now. May and June normally are, and were the wettest months since I began recording in 1990. Both months averaged a bit over 5" since that time here! I had only 1.61" this past April which isn't even 50% of normal. 

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2 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Nothing here either, so far we have picked up a trace of rainfall since Thursday night as all the rain and storms were west and north last night, and today’s action looks to be mostly east… rainfall chances are all of a sudden looking pretty meager (less than 20%) the next 4 days. 

Not surprised that we keep getting screwed here in East Central Nebraska… long live the drought.

I watched the radar all night. I was 100% sure we would get hit. My family looked at the radar also and were just in shock how the storms refused to hit our area. We kid about the dome, but last night you’d swear something odd was happening. Have to hope for something next week, or our bad situation will get worse. 

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