May 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Once again yesterday had a lot of smoke and even with 58% of possible sunshine it looked cloudy almost all day. The official H/L was 69/38 there was no rain fall and the day had 0 Cooling Degree Days and 13 Heating Degree Days. The overnight low fell to 51 before rising to the current reading of 56.

For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 91 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 2002. The record rain fall amount of 2.85” fell in 1938. So far May is above average at Muskegon and Lansing. Just about average at Holland. It is below average at Grand Rapids, Flint, Detroit and Saginaw.

If you do not get any rain today you might not get any rain for the next 7 to 10 days. There looks to be a long dry spell and we will have to start watering the grass and gardens. As can be the case when it is dry it looks to also become very warm with highs in the 80’s but with low DP’s it will not feel too bad. Lows will be cooler with the dry air. Could we see a pattern like 1988?

[Tom]

It is a bit muggy this morning here in the valley...it's wild to see the entire state with DP's in the 40's/50's when we are supposed to be in the 10's/20's...we have overcast skies this morning as the wave of energy from last night is still hanging on in the White Mtn's to my East.  

 

We are expecting another round of pretty strong storms to develop over the mountains and head south into the Valley yet again later tonight.  This is the biggest threat of the week that this pattern has delivered.  I'm looking forward to seeing some strong storms later today.

 

Meantime, top notch late Spring weather back home in Chi...Memorial Day weekend looks superb!  You guys definitely earned it!

 

[Tom]

How did you guys do out in OK??  @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2023&month=5&day=18&hour=6&minute=50

[hawkstwelve]

Much clearer out this morning with some very welcomed low-level fresh air moving in overnight. Still looks a little smokey aloft but I'll happily take the improvement at the surface.

This weekend is looking flat out gorgeous with clear, sunny skies, light winds, and temps in the 70s to lows 80s. Perfect.

[Iceresistance]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

How did you guys do out in OK??  @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2023&month=5&day=18&hour=6&minute=50

Close to an inch from just this morning

[OttumwaSnomow]

Record low May rain seems in the offing!  While rest of Iowa says, Say what! Map of past 30 days. These kind of localized droughts are the worst. Like some one is picking  on you! Happens way too often here.

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, Tom said:

How did you guys do out in OK??  @Iceresistance @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole

http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=usrad&java=script&mode=realtime&frames=75&interval=15&year=2023&month=5&day=18&hour=6&minute=50

I picked up about 1.5 here. Mesonet shows around 1.2 inches, i think. Not bad. This has been the perfect spring for me so far with exception to the late freezes.

[OKwx2k4]

8 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Record low May rain seems in the offing!  While rest of Iowa says, Say what! Map of past 30 days. These kind of localized droughts are the worst. Like some one is picking  on you! Happens way too often here.

That's like me watching it snow in winter...EVERYWHERE else. Lol. Patchy or localized droughts are very weird and really unpredictable.

[hawkstwelve]

Pretty cloudy and chilly day today. High of only 54 which is good for a -18 departure from normal. Brrrr.

[Andie]

Rain went SE of me.  Formed over me but I got stiffed !

Edit:   The front has moved on SSE and it’s hitting some warm Gulf moisture and firing up nicely. Would have been nice to get 1 good shower. 

[OKwx2k4]

@Tom You gave me a pretty awesome westher history tool in that link. Its fun to get to look back at historical weather like that! Thank you.

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Pretty cloudy and chilly day today. High of only 54 which is good for a -18 departure from normal. Brrrr.

These slugs of cold damp air are still a bit much. Looks like you all get back to better weather pretty quickly though.

[OKwx2k4]

Getting pretty hard to hate the GFS trends with precip here in the south-central states. That's slowly squashing a future ridge there.

Other than a few warm spikes south and east of the OK/TX line, looking like the trend is cooler again for awhile on our end. 

It makes sense to not see your typical flood of warm air we would usually see invading due to the westward shifted changing PDO in spite of a major spike in the NAO. Talking about blocking in warmer months may be a bit strange, but reasons are years like 2009 (I think) which saw major warm-season dips in AO/NAO couplet sort of define the core of summer weather. 

Other factors at play as we close out May will be the development of typhoons over the west Pacific causing influence in the high latitudes as they recurve. There are a lot of sea surface temperature reasons for this that a more advanced meteorologist could explain better than I, but these are a lot of factors which, in my opinion, stack the deck against any major heat dominating anywhere in the heart of the nation for the summer. Maybe the very far northern plains into central Canada could close out summer above average along with the Northeast US. 

That's a lot of my thoughts on what is coming and why. 

I know some others may have a better handle on terminology than I do, so I apologize if I'm confusing. I welcome thoughts on it. I think it will be an interesting summer and possibly close to May.

[westMJim]

While there were showers in the area yesterday here in MBY I only had a few sprinkles. Officially at Grand Rapids 0.02” was reported. The official H/L yesterday was 68/50 and only 5% of possible sunshine was reported. The overnight low in MBY so far has been 46. For today the average H/L is 71/50 the record high of 92 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 2002. The most rain fall of 3.39” fell in 1996.

[Clinton]

Light rain yesterday added up to .30 inches, not enough to help with the drought conditions but combined with the cooler temperatures it will keep me on the lawn mower for another week. 

[Clinton]

Near perfect weather this weekend and a bonfire with some friends looks likely tonight.  This mornings temps are a bit chilly with readings in the mid 40s this morning.

[Hawkeye]

Here are the latest 10-day Euro and 16-day GFS for rainfall.   

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Near perfect weather this weekend and a bonfire with some friends looks likely tonight.  This mornings temps are a bit chilly with readings in the mid 40s this morning.

Ahhh, the smell of burning wood and a glowing fire radiating warmth, along with some sticks with sausages and potato's in the coals!  Man, that's why I love the woods so much and spending time outdoors.  Enjoy!

Back home, a top notch week of weather extending through MDW...I'm sure business's and outdoor enthusiasts are thrilled.  Low DP's, sunny skies, light winds...how could you not???

[Tom]

The bread basket of the nation looks to get some much need precip as we enter Memorial Day weekend and into June....need to spread some of this wealth farther east and my thoughts it will as we enter the 1st month of MET Summer.  I'm hopeful my LR call for a wet weekend during the holiday will materialize for most of you in NE that need the precip.  

 

On a side note, as @OKwx2k4mentioned above, I have to concur and do not see any prolong Heat Waves for areas in the S Plains this summer.  I do see an extended hot period end of July for the GL's/MW due to a Tropical System that will effect parts of FL and SE coast that usually pumps up a Hot Dome.  More on that later on, in the meantime, enjoy this amazing weather!

Oh ya, the local media are calling this past week "MaySoon"...aka, an early taste to the Monsoon...it delivered some wild weather for parts of N AZ and into the NW valley.  Some severe storms fired up near the Prescott/Wickenburg area that literally were stationary and created Flash Flooding.  I saw some gorgeous towering cumulonimbus clouds in the distance yesterday afternoon and then by later in the early evening a nice outflow rushed down into my area dropping temps into the upper 70's/low 80's.  I went out by the fountain and soaked up all the beautiful storm clouds as the winds were gusty out of the NW....it was perfection!

 

 

[Andie]

10 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Getting pretty hard to hate the GFS trends with precip here in the south-central states. That's slowly squashing a future ridge there.

Other than a few warm spikes south and east of the OK/TX line, looking like the trend is cooler again for awhile on our end. 

It makes sense to not see your typical flood of warm air we would usually see invading due to the westward shifted changing PDO in spite of a major spike in the NAO. Talking about blocking in warmer months may be a bit strange, but reasons are years like 2009 (I think) which saw major warm-season dips in AO/NAO couplet sort of define the core of summer weather. 

 

I recall 2009 well and the winter of 09/10. It was a cold winter and we got a good snow. So if the pattern is similar or repeating it will be a cold winter.  

[westMJim]

Well its May 20th up in Houghton the grass is now green and the leaves are starting to finally emerge. In most of the UP spring is a very short season. 
https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/walker/
That would be a great place for any "true snow bird" to retire.

[westMJim]

As we enter the last third of May here is a brief update as to where several locations stand. At Grand Rapids the mean is now at 56.4 that is a departure of -0.9 the high for May so far is 81 and the low is 36 at Lansing the mean is 56.9 for a departure of +0.5 their high so far is 82 and the low is 36.  At Muskegon the mean is 57.2 for a departure of +1.3 the high so far there is 83 and the low 36. At Holland the mean is 55.9 for a departure of -0.2 the high there is 79 and the low is 36. All locations are well below average in rain fall. That could soon be a issue.

Around the state Detroit -0.9, Flint -0.4, Saginaw -1.1, Alpena -0.8 Houghton Lake -0.3 are all below average. While The Sault, Marquette and Houghton are above average most of Michigan is below average in rain fall..

 

[Andie]

High of 77 Sunny  

Low tonight 61.  

Just a fabulous day.  Pollen is killing me but not a bad trade for gorgeous weather.  

[OttumwaSnomow]

Says it all.

[westMJim]

Yesterday the official H/L was 67/46 there was a trace of reported rain fall and 55% of possible sunshine. There were 0 Cooling Degree Days and 8 Heating Degree Days. For today the average H/L is 72/50 the record high of 91 was in 1977 and the record low of 31 was in 1969. The record rain fall of 2.46” fell in 2004.

[Tom]

It's finally going to dry out here as the DP's begin to fall today/tomorrow and a more normal MAY pattern begins with highs hovering around 100F all week, although, some signs that MDW may be a touch cooler than normal.  I'm totally fine with that!

0z Euro...pretty cool animation showing a "squeeze play" where the Plains shall see precip and higher DP's while those west & east are dry.

 

I'd be stoked to see a nice rally in the precip dept to finish off MAY...

 

 

0z EPS...gotta love it when Nature targets those areas which need it most...

[Andie]

65 Partly Cloudy. High around 79. 
We have a week of low 90’s and dry fair weather.  Should be a great week. 

Currently rain down in Hill Country. I’m sure they’re glad to see it before things warm up.  

[chescowxman]

Our cooler than normal but very dry May continues across Chester County. Unfortunately we only picked up between .01" and .05" of rain with the light showers last night. We are now more than 5" below normal rainfall for the year. A dry mild week to start before turning back below normal by the holiday weekend. Looks pretty dry through the end of the month but for a potential pattern change to wetter to start the month of June.

Records for today: High 95 (1934)/ Low 34 (2002) / Rain 3.55" (1894)

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

It's finally going to dry out here as the DP's begin to fall today/tomorrow and a more normal MAY pattern begins with highs hovering around 100F all week, although, some signs that MDW may be a touch cooler than normal.  I'm totally fine with that!

0z Euro...pretty cool animation showing a "squeeze play" where the Plains shall see precip and higher DP's while those west & east are dry.

 

I'd be stoked to see a nice rally in the precip dept to finish off MAY...

 

 

0z EPS...gotta love it when Nature targets those areas which need it most...

To the drought, we can call that one the "Plume of Doom". Like a life-giving heartbeat through the middle of our nation. Truly beautiful seeing everything change like that in cycle and in order. All in perfect time.

Your point in a previous post about hurricanes comes to mind there as well. I think its only a matter of time before we see it get rolling. While i wouldn't call for an above average tropical season for overall activity, I think when it comes, it will be a lot of mid-category or major hurricanes rather than high tropical waves and fish-storms as they used to be called. 

[OKwx2k4]

Truly beautiful....

 

[Clinton]

Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.

[Iceresistance]

34 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.

That is what I been thinking as well based on the models (Especially the ensembles) I have been looking at for a while.

And of course, Oklahoma is the target, especially since we are going to El Niño

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Reed Timmer seems very confident the Southern Plains are about to have some severe weather over the next few weeks.  Oklahoma looks to be the target.

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

The end-of-May into early June pattern is as textbook new El Nino with remnant cold PDO/warm NPO from previous La Nina regime, one that favors day-after-day severe weather and beneficial rains for the southern Plains, including the southern High Plains. Storm season is just getting started. I typically hedge my analyses of long-range models with a solid foundational knowledge of the Pacific Climate System. Never stop chasing

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

We are eyeing next weekend to have two Dominators out in the field at once for the first time in 10 years. A lot needs to come together, but conversations are happening.

Yeah, there's always another side to the good stuff. There will be amazing opportunities for severe weather, for sure. He covered the reasons pretty solidly about like I did in other posts. The Pacific is running the show from now through late summer or longer. 

His terminology NPO is what I'm speaking of when I talk about the PDO/AO couplet.

This is the interesting part of this pattern.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a rather pleasant day the official H/L was 76/42 there was no rain fall and 87% of possible sunshine. There were 0 Cooling Degree Days and 6 Heating Degree Days. The overnight low here in MBY was 46 and the current reading is 48 with cloudy skies. For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 91 was set in 1925 and the record low of 34 was set in 1917. The record rain fall amount of 1.10” fell in 1917.

Looking ahead today and tomorrow look to be on the mild side then a mid-week cool down. There once again Is a chance of frost on Thursday morning.  At this time the weekend looks to be rather pleasant. The chances of rain look to be very slim. This could end up being one of the driest May’s in a long time.

[chescowxman]

Today looks to be our only above normal temperature day of the week. Overall temps looks to stay near to slightly below normal as we have a good chance to finish with our 1st below normal temperature month of the year and first since our below normal December 2022. Dry weather all work week but it looks a bit unsettled by the 2nd half of Memorial Day weekend.

Records for today: High 95 (1941) / Low 34 (1963) / Rain 2.59" (1915)

[Hawkeye]

You will never see a drier 10-day Euro at this time of year.  This is pretty ridiculous.

[CentralNebWeather]

Good news for some, bad news for others in the precipitation department. 

 

[Andie]

We’re sitting at 84* but the humidity is 45%.  
Unusual for us, especially in late Spring. Gorgeous evening. Calm wind. Just perfect.  

I'm interested in this wet summer you’re talking about.  The last one I recall was in the early 2000’s.  We had a very rainy June.  

[Clinton]

Even though it's going to most likely be dry at least the temperatures are going to be near perfect.

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was very pleasant, the official H/L was 77/47 there once again was no rain fall. For the month at GR there has only been 0.84” of rain. Currently there is really no rain in the forecast. There was 70% of filtered sunshine yesterday. There were 0 CDD’s and 3 HDD’s currently May has only 3 Cooling Degree Days that is a departure of -20 and there have been 178 Heating Degree Days that is a departure of -7 so for the month of May heating and cooling energy use is both less than average so a good “don’t have to month so far.

For today the average H/L is 72/51 the record high of 90 was set in 1977 and the record low of 30 was set in 1963. The record rain fall of 2.26 fell in 1904. The next week looks to swing between warm and cool. There are a couple of days with highs of around or just above 80 and nights with lows in the 30’s

For the week ahead the two things of interest are the lack of rain fall and the chance of some frost. This is from today weather discussion

“FROST AND EVEN SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY   
NIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING BRINGS GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING   
CONDITIONS. COLD HOLLOWS UP NORTH COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S   
BUT EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL BE IN THE 30S. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL   
WILL BE MONITORED”

[chescowxman]

Sun should be on the increase this afternoon with highs a couple degrees below yesterday and slightly below normal levels for late May. Much of the next week looks to average near to slighly below normal across the area. Best rain chances look like Saturday night through Monday...but it will not be a wash out for outdoor plans over the holiday weekend.

Records for today: High 94 (1925) / Low 32 (1963) / Rain 2.02" (1989)

[Andie]

A cool 70 this morning on its way to 85.  
Tomorrow 40% chance of rain.  

[Tom]

It was a fun week of tracking storms throughout the state of Arizona last week, but today, we dry out and warm up.  Actually, yesterday we warmed up quite a bit and PHX hit 103F which is 5F Above Normal for the date.  The rest of the week and weekend we will have highs near 100F or upper 90's and plenty of SUN.  Near Perfection for the Valley of the Sun.

[Tom]

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

 

[Hawkeye]

23 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

I hate long stretches of dry weather like this, and we are going to be very dry by early June, but it's nice to see other regions, which badly need rain, get a nice soaking.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I hate long stretches of dry weather like this, and we are going to be very dry by early June, but it's nice to see other regions, which badly need rain, get a nice soaking.

Agree, its just the way it goes..."The Hav's and Have not's"...your turn will come in June...

[Bryan1117]

41 minutes ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

 

If this verifies (looks like it’s a good bet that we don’t get any rain this weekend), it will solidify this as the driest May in Omaha’s history… I haven’t ever seen unwatered areas of grass start to go dormant this early in the season.

I feel for the local farmers, if we don’t get something soon this summer is going to be even worse than last year.

[Stacsh]

Drought incoming for the Great Lakes region. Grass starting to brown already and we’ve just started.   Not even memorial day yet.  Not much rain in sight next ten days.   Low 80’s today.  Cold front with cool temps then it looks like the heat is on!   Welcome to summer in late May early June.  Rex block for the win except for rain.  

[Andie]

Tom, The rain will be welcomed. We all know here things will dry up so we want to capture to rain while we can.  
Bring it on!

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Sheesh, parts of NE and IA and the rest of the MW appears they will miss out on the rains expected to finish off the month.  On the flip side, many of those in the Plains and south are going to cash in.

0z Euro... @Clinton @Andie @OKwx2k4 and the rest of the Okie crew look good...

 

 

That will be very welcomed!  We need several 2 to 4 inch rains.  Farm ponds are very low!