May 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Bryan1117]

Not starting the week off well here in the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas... another "near miss" for decent precipitation . 

[hawkstwelve]

We are heading into the season of having to deal with wildfire smoke. 

 

[Thunder98]

Intense tstorms over the GC.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

10 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are heading into the season of having to deal with wildfire smoke. 

 

Downside to Canada warming and drying while we cool and moist it up down here.

[OKwx2k4]

If these verify, going to be an awesome summer down here in the south-central states. No total drought-breaker, but hope beyond hope. 

Its that connection across the south I have been talking of. Good stuff coming.

[OKwx2k4]

PDO ring going to start showing up on the west coast very soon. 

If right on cue, going to reverse the warmth that tries to pop in the central CONUS in the later periods. 

Year without a summer here (and much needed) is looking like a lock. 

What will be exciting is to see if that eastern part crashes and leaves us with a central moderate or weak-mod east based Niño. 

[westMJim]

After a cold start yesterday was a very nice mid May day with a H/L of 73/38. There was no rain fall and 99% of possible sunshine. There were 9 HDDs and 0 CDDs The overnight low here in MBY for today was 40. For today the average H/L is 70/49 the record high of 89 was set in 1962 and 1977 the record low of 29 was set in 1997 the record rain fall of 1.97” fell in 1974.

The next 5 days look to be a few degrees either side of average. There is a chance of frost away from the metro areas and to the north. And later towards the end of the week a chance of showers. At the current time it is 41 here in MBY a good 5° colder there than at GRR.

[Andie]

Our next 5-6 days are similar. Consistent spring weather.  
High 80’s Lows 60’s.  
Going to enjoy it while it’s here! 

[chescowxman]

Continues to look dry at least through the weekend. Some rain chances by Saturday...our area farmers and lawns could really use some rain as we continue to run at around 75% of normal rain through today. Warmer today but then back to well below normal to close out the work week. In fact most areas should see temps drop into the 30's by Thursday morning. Some valley locations may even see some patchy frost.

Records for today: High 89 (1998) / Low 30 (1956) / Rain 2.44" (1989)

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Our next 5-6 days are similar. Consistent spring weather.  
High 80’s Lows 60’s.  
Going to enjoy it while it’s here! 

Congrats to the Dallas Stars last night!  My cousin went to the game and it was pretty darn electric!  Game 7's are always fun to watch.

[Tom]

The target period through Memorial Day weekend has been on the calendar to produce another favorable round of precipitation over the Heartland and our fellow Farmers.   The modeling is suggesting the western ag belt region to be on the wetter side of things compared to the eastern ag belt.

0z EPS...

 

[tStacsh]

Looks pretty dry around here for a week or so.   Chance of rain friday.  We are well above average for the year, but a slow start to growing season as we are now below average for May.  

[Madtown]

Sounds silly after just melting 30"+ of snow less than 3 weeks ago, but we need rain! Everything is bone dry and water levels running a bit low. Last pile of snow still hanging on

[Tom]

Cool way to see the smoke tracking south along the CF…

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis_color/goes16_wi_3h.html

[hawkstwelve]

Very thick smoke has moved in overhead. The sun was very pink/red earlier but now has been completely hidden. Luckily it looks like it should mostly stay aloft and not mix down to the surface.

Hope all the folks up in Alberta are staying safe.

[Tom]

1st rains in a long time for the valley of PHX…#monsoon2023

 

[Tom]

1st Rainbow of the season…

 

 

[Clinton]

Rain chances don't look great but near perfect temps are in the forecast for the rest of the week into the weekend.

[Clinton]

The GFS and Euro agree that drought conditions will worsen over western Missouri the next 10 days almost no precipitation expected.

[westMJim]

There was considerable smoke over the area yesterday and that looks to have kept the temperature down here in the Muskegon, Holland and Grand Rapids area. The official H/L was 75/43 there was no rain fall the sun was out about 43% of the time but the sky was more white than blue. There were 6 HDDs and 0 CDDs.

The current temperature and overnight low in MBY is 42 with hazy skies. The official low looks to have been 41. For today the average H/L is 70/49 the record high of 91 was set in 1962 and the record low of 30 was set in 1973 the record rain fall amount of 1.62” fell in 2020. The next 5 days look to be near average with highs in the 60’s and 70’s and lows 40’s to near 50.

[chescowxman]

A cold front slid through the area overnight from the north and winds have turned to the north. Temps have continued to fall from our midnight high of 62.8 - we are currently at 52.7 here in East Nantmeal. Tonight will see many areas fall into the 30's for what should be the last time until October. Below normal temperatures should continue through Friday before rebounding to near normal on Saturday. Shower chances will increase on Saturday.

Records for today: High 91 (1951) / Low 30 (1895) / Rain 1.34" (2018)

[Andie]

Gorgeous day. High of 84 clear. 
Thurs high 88 with a front bringing us some Rain. 
Fri thru Mon 81/82 for a high. Partly cloudy and terrific late spring weather. 

[Tom]

The "Monsoon" pattern continues today with storms firing up along the White Mtn's and up north...like yesterday, some of these storms will produce outflows that could spark a rogue storm or two in the east valley.  Might get lucky again and get some beneficial rains.  This morning when I stepped outside, you could smell the desert air from the rains yesterday.  You have to experience it to understand.  Oh ya, PHX hit a toasty temp of 105F and this is the highest temp of the season...not to mention, you can feel the humidity in the air but not the kind where you "wear".

 

Currently...

 

 

[Bryan1117]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The GFS and Euro agree that drought conditions will worsen over western Missouri the next 10 days almost no precipitation expected.

Beginning to let go of any hope for a pattern change around here. Also to make matters worse, we are falling behind on annual moisture pretty quickly now after a decent start (we are now at almost a 2 inch precipitation deficit year to date here in Omaha). The trends are not our friend right now for the summer months.

Hopefully you all down in Eastern Kansas and Western Missouri don’t start feeling our recent pain as well.

[Stormy]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Cool way to see the smoke tracking south along the CF…

https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/vis_color/goes16_wi_3h.html

They smoke moved into this area last evening and continues today with very milky/hazy looking skies. 

[Stormy]

On 5/14/2023 at 3:16 PM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Here's  my  precip numbers from 2023 so far.

Jan - 2.23

Feb - 3.07

Mar - 2.08

Apr - 2.46

May - .86 so far

Today I  planted 3 large trees.  Basically  18 inches down almost void of moisture.   The trend since 2012 looks to continue. Other than a handful  of very wet weeks and a wet day or two per month the growning season my area in general here has been dry dry dry! Some of our wettest periods since 2011 have been in sept or oct. But some winter months way way wetter than avg. Basically  it rains but rarely when we need it! I used to trust May for 4 inches or more but apparently  thats becoming  a thing of the past!  July  and Aug here have become shockingly dry, as well as some Septembers and June. Even Aprils have been so dry at times grass will barely  grow. Again all of this Im comparing to averages  for Ottumwa  Iowa I assume  over 60 years?  We started our business  here in 2008 and for the first 4 years lack of rain never entered  our minds!  I still cant believe  today that we were getting  mowers stuck back then in places  haven't  even barely  been wet for years now.  Most ponds  haven't  been full  for 18 months or longer now. About 3 yrs ago I saw a report on National Geographic  Channel  discussing Iowa flooding.  The report basically  said that growing  crops in Iowa is becoming  almost  impossible and insinuated that world food supplies  will be affected by all the flooding in constantly  in Iowa!  MUCH OF IOWA BEEN IN DROUGHT SINCE I SAW THAT!  In my area here  lack of july aug moisture  has reduced yields  somewhat.  But flooding? What is that? Map below is past 30 days rain.

Looks like you started in a very wet period of years. 2008 to 2010 were all very wet in my location, (as was 2007) which really isn't normal either. But 2011 was very dry in July and August. I've had a number of wet years since 2013, but it seems northeast Iowa is much wetter than average in the last decade or so! 

[CentralNebWeather]

[Iowawx]

After the front moves through tomorrow, rain chances appear low for at least another week around here. We are still below normal for the year for precipitation here. Hopefully we can get back to near or above normal precipitation around here so we don't go anymore below normal. It seems like there has always been a drought around here especially during the summer months for quite sometime around here. 

 

[Black Hole]

Should get some rain with a few thunderstorms possible Thursday-Friday but otherwise mostly quiet for the next week. Still, totals could end up pretty solid for this storm.

Overall it's been a pathetic excuse for a severe weather season with no severe weather reports near me the entire spring. Absolute deadzone. We are moving out of peak severe season at this point so now I'm mostly just hoping we avoid hot weather for as long as possible. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

4 hours ago, Stormy said:

Looks like you started in a very wet period of years. 2008 to 2010 were all very wet in my location, (as was 2007) which really isn't normal either. But 2011 was very dry in July and August. I've had a number of wet years since 2013, but it seems northeast Iowa is much wetter than average in the last decade or so! 

I did some research.   Decorah  iowa only on drought  monitor  2 times in 20 yrs or something  like that.  Since  2012 Wapello  cty lives on drought monitor. I strongly  believe  southern  iowa has microclimates.  The data sites (locations) are inefficient.  Some other areas also frequently  in drought  like souix  city and even mason city. But it doesn't  take a detailed  data pool to see it. Dozens of times me and others have driven to iowa city, desmoines, or frequently  as close as Oskaloosa  to see green!!  A friend  in Burlington  has a similar  landscaping  business  and   over a 5 yr period asked me one day "HOW DO YOU MAKE A LIVING IN OTTUMWA?"  nearly every summer trip west to  Ottumwa   he find it burned up while Burlington  green. Imo there are strips and stripes across  Iowa with higher summer averages.  Creston to ames is one! If anyone  on here is close to Madrid?  How often severe  drought there? I have friends with gages mahaska  county  18 miles away over  past 11 yrs its obvious.  I believe  parts of iowa with flat  plateau  type areas to its sw or west gets more summer  cells.  Some years  like 2008 and 2010 its not very evident, but the drier yrs it is. Hilly areas like south wapello, north lucas county, SE monroe are notoriously  dry. I suspect  southside desmoines  is drier than north of metro. Again  only  talking summer. Its clear  that my area here can lead iowa in overall  rain year round  frequently.  Incidentally  this looks like my driest  may ever! .90 so far in May and May was to only real month I trusted here for precip!  Theres been a few steady precip summers like 2014, 2020. Maybe we just eek by  on popups and freak events with a 20 to 40% chance. If i wrote down ever flood watch, tornado  watch,  80 to 90% chance and Ottumwa  Iowa gets zero  in summer it will blow your mind! I am in a unique  situation.  I have hunting farms from lucas Iowa to Batavia iowa.  Several  counties, my own and wildlife  plots we do for others is nearing 100 in maybe 8 counties.. I know the drought  prone locations  which can be exasperated  by poor clay soil. 

[westMJim]

There was a lot of smoke cover yesterday and the sky had a gray/white look to it. While there was a reported 92% of sunshine it was not like the sky was clear. The official H/L was 62/41 there was no rain fall. There were 13 Heating Degree Days and 0 Cooling Degree Days.

The overnight low in MBY so far is 41 (officially it was 39 at GRR) for today the average H/L is 71/49 the record high of 90 was set in 1962 and the record low of 28 was set in 1973. The record rain fall amount of 3.31” fell in 2000. The record snow fall amount of 0.2” fell in 1915 this is the latest date for measurable snowfall until fall. 0.4” fell in Lansing in 1915 for their latest snowfall of the spring.

While the lows are in the low 40’s here in the GR metro area that is not the case to the north.  Away from the lakes there are many areas in the mid to low 30’s at this time. And even 26 at Houghton Lake, 27 at Alpena and 28 at Pellston. 33 at Cadillac.

[james1976]

Last couple days there's been a lot of wildfire smoke here in the Twin Cities area. Almost to the point it seemed cloudy. Made for a real nice sunset last night. Looks like some rain today and then a beautiful weekend in store!

[Beltrami Island]

On 5/16/2023 at 3:48 PM, Madtown said:

Sounds silly after just melting 30"+ of snow less than 3 weeks ago, but we need rain! Everything is bone dry and water levels running a bit low. Last pile of snow still hanging on

I have experienced the same thing with heavy snow/late dry spring years.  Even with a muddy mess on the ground as its melting.  I guess the ground frost keeps the water from soaking in to the ground and it just runs off? Its seems like it ought to soak into the ground more, but nope. 

[tStacsh]

DId not expect a mini heatwave next week is this year's pattern this spring.    But it's looking likely that temps will be well into the 80's and very dry for next week into Memorial Day weekend.  Awesome weather coming for Michigan and for those that can escape up north to the lake house for a few days!

[chescowxman]

Some of the lower and coldest spots like Marsh Creek did briefly hit the freezing mark this morning.  Here in East Nantmeal we dropped to 35.9 degrees this is the 3rd coldest May 18th reading since 1894. Only colder were both 1983 and 1973 at 33 degrees. Well below normal temps will continue today before warming to near normal tomorrow. Rain chances increase on Saturday before clearing out on Sunday. Let's hope for some much needed rain as we are now exactly 5" below normal for the year.

Records for today: High 95 (1962) / Low 33 (1983/1973) / Rain 2.39" (1988)

[Tom]

I have finally learned why you get that desert smell in the air after it rains!  After all these years of coming here, a local met on TV mentioned it today in his weather segment.  The Sonoran Desert has a bush called the "Creosote" which gives off that wonderful aroma after it rains.  After last nights rains, this morning I could smell it quite nicely in the air.  This was the 2nd day in a row we got rain with a total of (.28")...last night we got 0.17" and the day before 0.11"....#BonusMonsoon

All the local mets are quite intrigued with this pattern over the coming days.  In fact, we are expecting another night of storms to roll into the valley today on the north side.  I think Friday will be the bigger day of the two. 

My brother and his wife's flew into town and left for their trip to Havusupai and may not have the best weather.  They waited 3 years for this trip that included an ill-timed COVID delay.  I'm praying that there won't be to much run off from the storms up north that will effect the gorgeous turquoise color of the water. 

 

The highest DP so far this season....

[Andie]

I thought you knew that being an Az regular.  Wow. I’m married to a Tucson boy and he never stops talking about the wonderful desert smells.  He misses the mountains. (So do I, especially Mt. Lemon)

Highs today and Friday near 90. A front will then deliver some rain and temps  near 80 Sat/Sun.  
Awesome weekend ahead.  

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, Andie said:

I thought you knew that being an Az regular.  Wow. I’m married to a Tucson boy and he never stops talking about the wonderful desert smells.  He misses the mountains. (So do I, especially Mt. Lemon)

Highs today and Friday near 90. A front will then deliver some rain and temps  near 80 Sat/Sun.  
Awesome weekend ahead.  

Sadly, I never new it was a phenomena that only occurs in the Sonora Desert.  You learn something new everyday!

[Stormy]

19 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I did some research.   Decorah  iowa only on drought  monitor  2 times in 20 yrs or something  like that.  Since  2012 Wapello  cty lives on drought monitor. I strongly  believe  southern  iowa has microclimates.  The data sites (locations) are inefficient.  Some other areas also frequently  in drought  like souix  city and even mason city. But it doesn't  take a detailed  data pool to see it. Dozens of times me and others have driven to iowa city, desmoines, or frequently  as close as Oskaloosa  to see green!!  A friend  in Burlington  has a similar  landscaping  business  and   over a 5 yr period asked me one day "HOW DO YOU MAKE A LIVING IN OTTUMWA?"  nearly every summer trip west to  Ottumwa   he find it burned up while Burlington  green. Imo there are strips and stripes across  Iowa with higher summer averages.  Creston to ames is one! If anyone  on here is close to Madrid?  How often severe  drought there? I have friends with gages mahaska  county  18 miles away over  past 11 yrs its obvious.  I believe  parts of iowa with flat  plateau  type areas to its sw or west gets more summer  cells.  Some years  like 2008 and 2010 its not very evident, but the drier yrs it is. Hilly areas like south wapello, north lucas county, SE monroe are notoriously  dry. I suspect  southside desmoines  is drier than north of metro. Again  only  talking summer. Its clear  that my area here can lead iowa in overall  rain year round  frequently.  Incidentally  this looks like my driest  may ever! .90 so far in May and May was to only real month I trusted here for precip!  Theres been a few steady precip summers like 2014, 2020. Maybe we just eek by  on popups and freak events with a 20 to 40% chance. If i wrote down ever flood watch, tornado  watch,  80 to 90% chance and Ottumwa  Iowa gets zero  in summer it will blow your mind! I am in a unique  situation.  I have hunting farms from lucas Iowa to Batavia iowa.  Several  counties, my own and wildlife  plots we do for others is nearing 100 in maybe 8 counties.. I know the drought  prone locations  which can be exasperated  by poor clay soil. 

Do you remember or get in on this big rain/hail event? 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2020-05-18

[Andie]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Sadly, I never new it was a phenomena that only occurs in the Sonora Desert.  You learn something new everyday!

The Sonoran desert has an amazing scent after a spring rain when trees and desert flowers are blooming.  
Wish they could bottle it!

 

EDIT:  Just saw a map from the NERC - National Electric Resource

You won't like it.  2/3 of the country at risk for major blackouts.  Everyone on this forum is on the map.  If you have a generator, great, otherwise you might look into a solar fan and some solar lamps. A large ice chest might be nice.

[Bryan1117]

Really hoping we can squeeze something out of the 20-30% rain chance tonight, as it’s looking bone dry around here for the next 7-10 days.

Unfortunately 2023 is looking like a solid repeat of 2022 weather-wise around here, which isn’t good unless you like heat and occasional dust storms.

UPDATE - Scratch the rain chances for this evening… replaced by Canadian wildfire smoke - yay!

[hawkstwelve]

Yucky day out today with the smoke settling in at the surface. Smells and looks nasty. A cold front dropping down tonight should hopefully help push some of it out of the area but there may be a renewed push of smoke aloft tomorrow, unfortunately.

[CentralNebWeather]

4 hours ago, Bryan1117 said:

Really hoping we can squeeze something out of the 20-30% rain chance tonight, as it’s looking bone dry around here for the next 7-10 days.

Unfortunately 2023 is looking like a solid repeat of 2022 weather-wise around here, which isn’t good unless you like heat and occasional dust storms.

UPDATE - Scratch the rain chances for this evening… replaced by Canadian wildfire smoke - yay!

Things looking worse for Eastern Nebraska. Not good for you guys. 

[Tom]

More storms and strong outflows this afternoon…love seeing this and so nice to get a taste of the monsoon this early in the season…

[Andie]

Glad to see it arrive.  How are rains in Tucson?

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, Andie said:

Glad to see it arrive.  How are rains in Tucson?

They have also joined the party and got some good storms the past couple days.  
 

I just took this vid…

 

 

[Clinton]

Recent spotty rains over the last week have not been enough to improve drought conditions.  Severe drought has expanded over western and central Missouri.

[OttumwaSnomow]

10 hours ago, Stormy said:

Do you remember or get in on this big rain/hail event? 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/onsite/features/cat.php?day=2020-05-18

I actually  had a screenshot of that event!  The heaviest  missed my place wsw of Ottumwa  back then. Heres the screenshot. The most memorable  one I witnessed here was Sept 17(?) 2017.  Ridiculous  training  along hwy 34 all nite LLJ didn't  die until 8 am. Ese edge of Ottumwa  8 inches! Coolest thing is it ended one of driest growing seasons ever (june n july so little  rain back to 1880s  records!). June 20 2015 i ended a wet period  with 6 inch nite!  Roads were closed beside  my house.  June 2021 probably  most memorable  wapello  county 1 day rain 12" one nite nw of eldon! Same area reported 17 inches june 2021.  But our rain comes in clumps!!! Like sept 2020 my house had 8 inches one week.  But we spend way way more time sticking our fingers hands or arms down into the cracks!! Just yesterday  helped my crew mow 21 lawns in 5 hrs. Dust from pollen, dust from dry ground and dying grass led me to hives! Ottumwa  Iowa can have these darn dry spells that seem to never  end each growing  season!!!!

[Andie]

We’ll see some heavy storms, if not brief, as a front plows through late tomorrow afternoon.  40% chance of rain.   
Any storm that does develop could be capable of producing damaging winds (winds in excess of 60 mph) or hail.

Much cooler air will move in behind the front, so the weekend will be dry and pleasant with high temperatures mostly in the 70s.

 

[MIKEKC]

After a wet winter and the drought conditions pretty much wiped out for KC, we are now back in some drought headlines and it appears things are not going to get wet anytime soon. Some parts of the city are sitting at around 2.5-3inches of rain since April 1st. Normal is closer to 6-7inhes. 

I hate droughts!!! Hopefully we can find a wet period before summer sets up shop.

 

Thanks..

 

Mike