May 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

As we continue on our treck towards Summer, will it start to feel more like Summer or Spring this month?  The last month of met Spring is going to feel and look more like Winter for our friends up north as the "Yooper's" shall see some Lake Effect snow!   #MayGrey

 

Not a nice way to open up the Merry Month of May...

 

I do foresee an active pattern for the central ag belt into the southern Plains as a boundary will set up more often than not this month.  The blocking to the north will aid in suppressing the troughs to come out into the central states instead of cutting north.  I expect a lot of volatility in the middle part of the month, but I'm afraid that the eastern Sub (esp GL's/MW) will generally be held in a more trough-like pattern, while the C & S Plains/Upper MW sees more chances of a ridge to build in that'll warm up quickly.

Let's discuss...

 

[Madtown]

Stop this already

[Andie]

62. Heavy cloud cover with scattered rain moving across the state all day.  
Nice to get a soaker. Much needed.  

This is the balance of the day and very grateful for this moisture as is much of the state.  
Rain will pick up around 4 till about midnight

Edit:  4 hrs later.  Rain developing.  Chance increase through the evening. Some really good rain. 60*

[westMJim]

After a brief warm up with temperatures near average today and jus below average on Friday and Saturday there will be a return to colder temperatures. The first few days of May look to be very cold with highs just in the 40’s

[Tom]

This could set the stage for a record low max for some locals around the GL's next Monday...

[Tom]

One of these days in May, it will get warm...not soon enough for a lot of you!  @Madtown

[Stormy]

On 4/26/2023 at 11:06 AM, Madtown said:

Stop this already

Do I see trees greening up with snow on the ground or are those some evergreens trees like spruce or something? 

[Madtown]

6 hours ago, Sparky said:

Do I see trees greening up with snow on the ground or are those some evergreens trees like spruce or something? 

Evergreens. Trees have buds, but not opening yet. talk of shoveled snow Sunday into Monday on the news tonight

[Stormy]

8 hours ago, Madtown said:

Evergreens. Trees have buds, but not opening yet. talk of shoveled snow Sunday into Monday on the news tonight

I just thought they trees look freshly green like new growth, but that could be color enhancement or the sun shining though the trees. 

We also have evergreens which haven't budded yet. 

[westMJim]

23 hours ago, Tom said:

This could set the stage for a record low max for some locals around the GL's next Monday

Here in Grand Rapids the record coldest maximum for May 1st is 37 set in 1909 but the forecasted high of 44 would be the 2nd coldest on record. Over all a very cold start to May.

[Black Hole]

Pretty quiet pattern until May 4th or 5th, then we may get back into some activity. However, I don't see a good set up for any sig severe potential for my area until around May 9-10th at the earliest. 

[Iceresistance]

There is a severe weather signal for May 4th for @Andie, even though that I, @Black Hole, and @OKwx2k4 are under the risk area. Andie's location is at the highest.

[Andie]

7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a severe weather signal for May 4th for @Andie, even though that I, @Black Hole, and @OKwx2k4 are under the risk area. Andie's location is at the highest.

Oh swell.  
Although this doesn’t surprise me, May can be a very hard month for No Tx. 
Our worst hailstorm came in early May in the 90’s.  Monster hail stones did damage that took almost a year to recover from.  It trashed my skylight, roof, some trees.  
I hope you aren’t hinting at that.  We aren’t fully recovered from the deep freeze kill from a couple yrs ago.  

[Tom]

Just wild to see a snow map like this one in early May for the Yooper's!  I know its prob not gonna materialize as such, but nonetheless, very impressive to see this much snow.  Could somehow get 2 FEET?  I think there is a good shot.  With a multi-day snow event in the works, you just never no what Mother Nature will show...

 

[Tom]

Hang in there guys and gals, a warmer and wetter pattern is going to materialize for the central CONUS that'll bring some smiles to many faces.  IMHO, this will be a common theme going forward as we head into the summer months.  I got that good gut feeling about a banner grow season....worried about too much of a good thing, however, for the MW ag belt, as I see many many frontal boundary scenario's playing out that will dump significant rains.

 

 

[Iceresistance]

AMM is finally rising, this means that May is going to be wetter than normal!

[Clinton]

 

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

 

The trusted warm NPO will force any omega block to have the ideal phase for active severe weather in the Plains this May. Never stop chasing

[westMJim]

A look back at April the mean at Grand Rapids was 49.3 the high for the month was 83 on the 14th and the low was 24 on the 2nd There was 3.99″ of rain fall and 2.0″ of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean was 49.3, At Holland the mean was 49.4 and at Lansing the mean was 50.0.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/39 there was 0.04″ of rain fall the same as here in MBY. There was 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature was 39. For today the average H/L is 64/43 the record high of 88 was set in 1942 and the record low of 21 was set in 1903

[Tom]

3 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

 

The trusted warm NPO will force any omega block to have the ideal phase for active severe weather in the Plains this May. Never stop chasing

Boom!  Another good MET that agrees the tables will turn for the central Plains and reep the rewards of much needed precip.

[tStacsh]

Looks like real spring arrives for good by this weekend/next week.  I guess I can't count on "real" spring before May anymore around here.  

[Tom]

New Month, New Pattern...Better Central Plain Vibes!

 

[CentralNebWeather]

You would think this will be the last freeze warning of the Spring.  Of course I said that on a previous post last week, and since then we've had 3 more freeze warnings.  What an odd Spring so far.

[Black Hole]

It's looking more interesting now starting mid week. Some definite storm chances with a marginal severe potential Wed-Fri. Storm chances continue over the weekend with some models showing some better severe potential. 

[Hawkeye]

Today has been better than expected.  Instead of cloudy and mid 50s, we are full sun and 60º.  The full sun has, however, aided in even higher wind than expected.  At 60º it's not cold, though.

[Tom]

I don't think I've ever seen such a disaster in Illinois caused by blowing dust off of the freshly plowed fields near Springfield, IL....I'm not sure if, or how many casualties but this looks to be bad.  

 

 

[Andie]

Just as a brief warning. Some Midwest states are topping the skin cancer list. Note the dark blues. 
Utah, Vermont, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Iowarounded out the top 5 states. Arizona, home of the Valley of the Sun, ranked a mere No. 12, with 27.8 out of 100,000 residents reporting new cancer.

[Clinton]

Drought busting days ahead.  Hopefully!

 

Reed Timmer, PhD

 

@ReedTimmerAccu

 

 

This early half of May pattern looks nuts. Just like 2015 with energized subtropical jet. This pattern will be good for busting drought in the southern Plains. Never stop chasing

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 45/36. That 45 was the 2nd coldest maximum for any May 2nd at Grand Rapids. That high was reached during a brief period of sunshine most of the day was in the very low 40’s There was 0.22” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall. That trace of snow fall was only the 5th time there has been snow fall on May 1st since 1893. It was a cold day across Michigan it was also the 2nd coldest maximum at Muskegon with a high of 42 and the Holland with a high of 41 and the 3rd with a high of 43 at Kalamazoo. At Lansing where it has been warmer than in the past since the updated 30 year averages have came out the high was 48 and was the 6th coldest maximum there. Records at Lansing go back to 1863. For today the average H/L is 64/44 the record high of 86 was set in 1959 and the record low of 22 was set in 1903 the record snow fall amount of 3.0” was set in 1929 so yes it can still snow in May.

[Tom]

The next 2 weeks are increasingly turning very wet for the heartland of the nation...Bullseye for those who need it most!  @gabel23 @CentralNebWeather @Bryan1117

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro had quite a bit more CAPE available for the Plains this weekend vs last couple runs.

[Madtown]

We done with snow now?!?!

[Tom]

Just another Day in Good ol' May up in Yooper-land....

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 44/37, That 44 was the 5th coldest maximum for any May 2nd 44 was also the high at Lansing and Holland and it was a warmer 46 at Muskegon. For Lansing that high was the 6 coldest maximum, at Holland it was the 3rd coldest and at Lansing it was the 9th coldest. The is the coldest first two days of May snice 1909. There was a trace of snow fall and that is only the 5th time snow has been reported on any May 2nd. While there were showers of rain and snow all day yesterday only 0.05” of precipitation fell. For today the average H/L is now up to 65/44 the record high of 87 was set in 1938 and 1955 the record low of 26 was set in 1971. The record rain fall amount of 2.03” fell in 1919. The record snow fall of 1.3” fell in 1954.

Today it should be about 10° warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 50’s. There is a chance of frost tonight but the temperatures should stay above 32. The week ahead looks to have a nice warm up and it should be in the mid 70’s but the end of the weekend.

[Andie]

We’ll be in the 80’s for the next 7 days except for Saturday/93 

Chances for scattered thunderstorms in there. We’re in a typical late Spring cycle.  High of 82 today. 86 tomorrow. 

[westMJim]

In looking back at April at Grand Rapids there were 15 days above average and 15 days below average. At Muskegon, Holland and Lansing there were 16 days above and 14 days below average. Note that at Detroit there were 15 days above and 15 days below. So while the month was above average there were also a good number of days below average as well.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 44/37, That 44 was the 5th coldest maximum for any May 2nd 44 was also the high at Lansing and Holland and it was a warmer 46 at Muskegon. For Lansing that high was the 6 coldest maximum, at Holland it was the 3rd coldest and at Lansing it was the 9th coldest. The is the coldest first two days of May snice 1909. There was a trace of snow fall and that is only the 5th time snow has been reported on any May 2nd. While there were showers of rain and snow all day yesterday only 0.05” of precipitation fell. For today the average H/L is now up to 65/44 the record high of 87 was set in 1938 and 1955 the record low of 26 was set in 1971. The record rain fall amount of 2.03” fell in 1919. The record snow fall of 1.3” fell in 1954.

Today it should be about 10° warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 50’s. There is a chance of frost tonight but the temperatures should stay above 32. The week ahead looks to have a nice warm up and it should be in the mid 70’s but the end of the weekend.

That's an interesting stat and I'm getting a feeling that the summer in and around the GL's will be cooler than what we've experienced over the past several years.  Maybe not as many HOT and Humid days??  Volatile wx is prob the way to go with plenty of troughs rolling through or getting blocked up.

[Tom]

I'd say the Euro did a dang job 3 days out showing the U.P. getting clobbered...

[Tom]

The pattern later this weekend into next week looks like one that could deliver a "Taste" of the summer pattern.  I'm seeing some good potential for "Ridge Riders".  I like last night's 00z Euro run which is showing clearly the GOM moisture getting tapped as the CAPE values surge North through TX/OK into the MW.

 

Next 10 days...

[tStacsh]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd say the Euro did a dang job 3 days out showing the U.P. getting clobbered...

Herman, MI in the UP set the single day snowfall record for any day in May with 27" of snow.  Anywhere east of the Rockies that is.   

[hawkstwelve]

We were thinking about keeping things fresh with a seasonal theme change for the site so I present to you...

The Weather Forums - Spring Edition!

At the start of each season we will change to a new color scheme that gives off the vibes of that season. So we will be sticking with this spring version until the end of June or so. Figure this will keep the website timely and also add a bit of fun to the kind of mundane blue/white/gray color scheme we usually go for. 

Please let me know if any portion of the site looks funky color wise and I will correct it. Also feel free to drop some constructive criticism/comments if you have any. Kind of a new venture so open to feedback.

[hawkstwelve]

 

[Grizzcoat]

as Tom mentioned-- this was nuts- ( heaviest snow event in MAY East of the Rockies)

 

https://www.fox2detroit.com/news/michigan-upper-peninsula-winter-storm-smashing-snowfall-records

[Andie]

Today's forecast is giving us a 20-30% chance of rain over the next 6 days. 

So, I don't know where they get their weather!  Highs 84-93 Pretty usual for now.  The map looks like rain to me. And this time of year is notorious for doing a 180* on forecasters.  So, I'll just be ready for both!  That's the rule here in May anyway. 

P.S. - The STate Power generators are warning us of potential brownouts during peak summer heat. 

Seems all these out-of-state people moving in and building these big houses are going gobble up the energy  Solar and wind will help some but Texas wind dies in deep summer.  Just when we need it!

[Clinton]

Looking forward to some beneficial rain tomorrow and Friday.  My place could receive 1+ inches which has become badly needed in the last month.

[westMJim]

The official H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 58/40 there was a reported trace of rain fall. There was a good amount of sun, but no percentage was give for yesterday. The overnight low at GRR looks to be 39. Here in MBY the low was 36. For today the average H/L is now up to 66/44 the record high of 88 was set in 1949 and the record low of 26 was set in 1971 and 2005. The most rain fall of 1.06” fell in 1902 and the record snow fall amount of 0.4” fell in 1954.

We are on tap for a much needed warm up and the next week looks to see highs in the low 70’s lows in the upper 40’s to low 50’s with several chances of rain and maybe even a thunderstorm or two.

[chescowxman]

It looks like today will be our 11th straight below normal day. In fact these 1st 3 days of May have been the coldest start to this month since 1945. It is the 3rd coldest start since 1894. Behind only 1945 and 1939. It looks like we have at least 2 more below normal days before warming to near normal by Saturday.

Records for today: High 91 (1913) / Low 31 (1909) / Rain 1.75" (1954)

[Clinton]

Rainfall amounts are decreasing rapidly for today and tomorrow, these amounts look optimistic compared to the latest data.

 

[Clinton]

May 4th has had some wild weather in the KC area.

@NWSKansasCity

Today marks the 20 year anniversary of the May 4th, 2003 tornado outbreak across the Kansas City area. You can find more images here:

 

10 years ago today 4-6 inches of snow fell causing alot of damage.

[Hawkeye]

Models are looking more active, but generally spotty with rain around here over the next week.  Iowa needs a good soaking rain event.  Our rainfall is well below average over the last two months.

[james1976]

In the middle of a 9 day tour with my band. Currently in Pittsburgh. The weather has been crap the entire time. 40s and rainy. This big Low has been following us from the midwest. Looks like things start improving today and for the remainder of the trip. We'll return to Iowa Sunday.