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May 2023 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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As we continue on our treck towards Summer, will it start to feel more like Summer or Spring this month?  The last month of met Spring is going to feel and look more like Winter for our friends up north as the "Yooper's" shall see some Lake Effect snow!   #MayGrey

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Not a nice way to open up the Merry Month of May...

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I do foresee an active pattern for the central ag belt into the southern Plains as a boundary will set up more often than not this month.  The blocking to the north will aid in suppressing the troughs to come out into the central states instead of cutting north.  I expect a lot of volatility in the middle part of the month, but I'm afraid that the eastern Sub (esp GL's/MW) will generally be held in a more trough-like pattern, while the C & S Plains/Upper MW sees more chances of a ridge to build in that'll warm up quickly.

Let's discuss...

 

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62. Heavy cloud cover with scattered rain moving across the state all day.  
Nice to get a soaker. Much needed.  

This is the balance of the day and very grateful for this moisture as is much of the state.  
Rain will pick up around 4 till about midnight

Edit:  4 hrs later.  Rain developing.  Chance increase through the evening. Some really good rain. 60*

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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8 hours ago, Madtown said:

Evergreens. Trees have buds, but not opening yet. talk of shoveled snow Sunday into Monday on the news tonight

I just thought they trees look freshly green like new growth, but that could be color enhancement or the sun shining though the trees. 

We also have evergreens which haven't budded yet. 

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23 hours ago, Tom said:

This could set the stage for a record low max for some locals around the GL's next Monday

Here in Grand Rapids the record coldest maximum for May 1st is 37 set in 1909 but the forecasted high of 44 would be the 2nd coldest on record. Over all a very cold start to May.

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Pretty quiet pattern until May 4th or 5th, then we may get back into some activity. However, I don't see a good set up for any sig severe potential for my area until around May 9-10th at the earliest. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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7 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

There is a severe weather signal for May 4th for @Andie, even though that I, @Black Hole, and @OKwx2k4 are under the risk area. Andie's location is at the highest.

Oh swell.  
Although this doesn’t surprise me, May can be a very hard month for No Tx. 
Our worst hailstorm came in early May in the 90’s.  Monster hail stones did damage that took almost a year to recover from.  It trashed my skylight, roof, some trees.  
I hope you aren’t hinting at that.  We aren’t fully recovered from the deep freeze kill from a couple yrs ago.  

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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Just wild to see a snow map like this one in early May for the Yooper's!  I know its prob not gonna materialize as such, but nonetheless, very impressive to see this much snow.  Could somehow get 2 FEET?  I think there is a good shot.  With a multi-day snow event in the works, you just never no what Mother Nature will show...

 

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Hang in there guys and gals, a warmer and wetter pattern is going to materialize for the central CONUS that'll bring some smiles to many faces.  IMHO, this will be a common theme going forward as we head into the summer months.  I got that good gut feeling about a banner grow season....worried about too much of a good thing, however, for the MW ag belt, as I see many many frontal boundary scenario's playing out that will dump significant rains.

 

 

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A look back at April the mean at Grand Rapids was 49.3 the high for the month was 83 on the 14th and the low was 24 on the 2nd There was 3.99″ of rain fall and 2.0″ of snow fall. At Muskegon the mean was 49.3, At Holland the mean was 49.4 and at Lansing the mean was 50.0.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/39 there was 0.04″ of rain fall the same as here in MBY. There was 6% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY and current temperature was 39. For today the average H/L is 64/43 the record high of 88 was set in 1942 and the record low of 21 was set in 1903

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3 hours ago, Clinton said:
 
The trusted warm NPO will force any omega block to have the ideal phase for active severe weather in the Plains this May. Never stop chasing

Boom!  Another good MET that agrees the tables will turn for the central Plains and reep the rewards of much needed precip.

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It's looking more interesting now starting mid week. Some definite storm chances with a marginal severe potential Wed-Fri. Storm chances continue over the weekend with some models showing some better severe potential. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Today has been better than expected.  Instead of cloudy and mid 50s, we are full sun and 60º.  The full sun has, however, aided in even higher wind than expected.  At 60º it's not cold, though.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I don't think I've ever seen such a disaster in Illinois caused by blowing dust off of the freshly plowed fields near Springfield, IL....I'm not sure if, or how many casualties but this looks to be bad.  

 

 

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Just as a brief warning. Some Midwest states are topping the skin cancer list. Note the dark blues. 
Utah, Vermont, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Iowarounded out the top 5 states. Arizona, home of the Valley of the Sun, ranked a mere No. 12, with 27.8 out of 100,000 residents reporting new cancer.

A4DC6B22-204C-4B74-B0D3-7764A644A683.webp

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 45/36. That 45 was the 2nd coldest maximum for any May 2nd at Grand Rapids. That high was reached during a brief period of sunshine most of the day was in the very low 40’s There was 0.22” of rain fall and a trace of snow fall. That trace of snow fall was only the 5th time there has been snow fall on May 1st since 1893. It was a cold day across Michigan it was also the 2nd coldest maximum at Muskegon with a high of 42 and the Holland with a high of 41 and the 3rd with a high of 43 at Kalamazoo. At Lansing where it has been warmer than in the past since the updated 30 year averages have came out the high was 48 and was the 6th coldest maximum there. Records at Lansing go back to 1863. For today the average H/L is 64/44 the record high of 86 was set in 1959 and the record low of 22 was set in 1903 the record snow fall amount of 3.0” was set in 1929 so yes it can still snow in May.

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Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 44/37, That 44 was the 5th coldest maximum for any May 2nd 44 was also the high at Lansing and Holland and it was a warmer 46 at Muskegon. For Lansing that high was the 6 coldest maximum, at Holland it was the 3rd coldest and at Lansing it was the 9th coldest. The is the coldest first two days of May snice 1909. There was a trace of snow fall and that is only the 5th time snow has been reported on any May 2nd. While there were showers of rain and snow all day yesterday only 0.05” of precipitation fell. For today the average H/L is now up to 65/44 the record high of 87 was set in 1938 and 1955 the record low of 26 was set in 1971. The record rain fall amount of 2.03” fell in 1919. The record snow fall of 1.3” fell in 1954.

Today it should be about 10° warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 50’s. There is a chance of frost tonight but the temperatures should stay above 32. The week ahead looks to have a nice warm up and it should be in the mid 70’s but the end of the weekend.

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We’ll be in the 80’s for the next 7 days except for Saturday/93 

Chances for scattered thunderstorms in there. We’re in a typical late Spring cycle.  High of 82 today. 86 tomorrow. 

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Record Rainfall - 62.65"   Record High Temp. 120.0*F
Record 
Low Temp. - 8.4*F

 

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In looking back at April at Grand Rapids there were 15 days above average and 15 days below average. At Muskegon, Holland and Lansing there were 16 days above and 14 days below average. Note that at Detroit there were 15 days above and 15 days below. So while the month was above average there were also a good number of days below average as well.

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1 hour ago, westMJim said:

Yesterday’s official H/L at Grand Rapids was 44/37, That 44 was the 5th coldest maximum for any May 2nd 44 was also the high at Lansing and Holland and it was a warmer 46 at Muskegon. For Lansing that high was the 6 coldest maximum, at Holland it was the 3rd coldest and at Lansing it was the 9th coldest. The is the coldest first two days of May snice 1909. There was a trace of snow fall and that is only the 5th time snow has been reported on any May 2nd. While there were showers of rain and snow all day yesterday only 0.05” of precipitation fell. For today the average H/L is now up to 65/44 the record high of 87 was set in 1938 and 1955 the record low of 26 was set in 1971. The record rain fall amount of 2.03” fell in 1919. The record snow fall of 1.3” fell in 1954.

Today it should be about 10° warmer than yesterday with highs in the mid 50’s. There is a chance of frost tonight but the temperatures should stay above 32. The week ahead looks to have a nice warm up and it should be in the mid 70’s but the end of the weekend.

That's an interesting stat and I'm getting a feeling that the summer in and around the GL's will be cooler than what we've experienced over the past several years.  Maybe not as many HOT and Humid days??  Volatile wx is prob the way to go with plenty of troughs rolling through or getting blocked up.

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The pattern later this weekend into next week looks like one that could deliver a "Taste" of the summer pattern.  I'm seeing some good potential for "Ridge Riders".  I like last night's 00z Euro run which is showing clearly the GOM moisture getting tapped as the CAPE values surge North through TX/OK into the MW.

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Next 10 days...

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3 hours ago, Tom said:

I'd say the Euro did a dang job 3 days out showing the U.P. getting clobbered...

Screen Shot 2023-05-03 at 5.58.25 AM.png

Herman, MI in the UP set the single day snowfall record for any day in May with 27" of snow.  Anywhere east of the Rockies that is.   

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We were thinking about keeping things fresh with a seasonal theme change for the site so I present to you...

The Weather Forums - Spring Edition!

At the start of each season we will change to a new color scheme that gives off the vibes of that season. So we will be sticking with this spring version until the end of June or so. Figure this will keep the website timely and also add a bit of fun to the kind of mundane blue/white/gray color scheme we usually go for. 

Please let me know if any portion of the site looks funky color wise and I will correct it. Also feel free to drop some constructive criticism/comments if you have any. Kind of a new venture so open to feedback.

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