December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

Snow totals so far...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

00z is pretty dull so far. 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z is pretty dull so far. 

Sub 990mb low off the Coast on Friday. No changes in terms of offshore flow it looks to develop Monday evening and persist all week. No significant changes upstream Day 6-9.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

00Z showing the trough moving inland instead of staying offshore and pumping up a ridge or warm rain. Here is the high resolution 10 day snow total:

 

[MossMan]

00Z showing the trough moving inland instead of staying offshore and pumping up a ridge or warm rain. Here is the high resolution 10 day snow total:

 

snodpc_acc.us_nw (1).png

Looks good for your area! We are heading to Leavenworth a week from tomorrow, hopefully it will be a winter wonderland!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks good for your area! We are heading to Leavenworth a week from tomorrow, hopefully it will be a winter wonderland!

I hope so too! We have some snow on the ground, got about 4.5 inches last night more than predicted. So you will be there for the weekend? Lots of people will be there for Christmas lighting, I am surprised you got lodging for the weekend at such a late date. December weekends are usually all booked 6 months in advance. Where are you staying? PM me if you have any questions. A few pics from this AM.

 

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think everyone fell asleep during the 00z lol

[MossMan]

I hope so too! We have some snow on the ground, got about 4.5 inches last night more than predicted. So you will be there for the weekend? Lots of people will be there for Christmas lighting, I am surprised you got lodging for the weekend at such a late date. December weekends are usually all booked 6 months in advance. Where are you staying? PM me if you have any questions. A few pics from this AM.

 

20191212_080639.jpg

 

 

20191212_073355.jpg

Looks amazing! We decided to just make it a day trip, going to get there around 9am and spend the day, then head back in the early evening.

 

BTW is that your place?

[Deweydog]

These showers are clearly BLOB infused.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I hope so too! We have some snow on the ground, got about 4.5 inches last night more than predicted. So you will be there for the weekend? Lots of people will be there for Christmas lighting, I am surprised you got lodging for the weekend at such a late date. December weekends are usually all booked 6 months in advance. Where are you staying? PM me if you have any questions. A few pics from this AM.

 

20191212_080639.jpg

 

 

20191212_073355.jpg

 

Gorgeous. I stayed there in December 2011, around the 15th or so I believe. We got a hotel like maybe 6 weeks out...But that was still the tail end of the recession so it probably was not as busy back then. 

 

Last time we were up there was November 2016, that was a fun trip, we camped at some campground up Icicle Creek on a very raw snowy/rainy night. Even though the campground was obviously closed for the season we were not the only people camping up there. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Oh man, I'd love to see those. Eugene was still the bullseye until I get proven different.

Greatest snow event in our history. 2nd place was the one we just had in Feb and it was like half as much.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Models are backing off the cold with the weekend trough. Mark said that seems to be a theme with the new GFS. It has a mid-range cold bias. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Greatest snow event in our history. 2nd place was the one we just had in Feb and it was like half as much.

 

Eugene had 36" in January 1950. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks amazing! We decided to just make it a day trip, going to get there around 9am and spend the day, then head back in the early evening.

BTW is that your place?

My home away from home, I spend 5 nights a week there at an AFJ for guys with down syndrome. Our real home is a few miles away, I spend days and weekends there.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Gorgeous. I stayed there in December 2011, around the 15th or so I believe. We got a hotel like maybe 6 weeks out...But that was still the tail end of the recession so it probably was not as busy back then. 

Last time we were up there was November 2016, that was a fun trip, we camped at some campground up Icicle Creek on a very raw snowy/rainy night. Even though the campground was obviously closed for the season we were not the only people camping up there.

 

Yeah I know people who love winter camping. Close to town but a bit cooler with a bit more snow. Love the sound of the creek, very scenic there.

[Dave]

Greatest snow event in our history. 2nd place was the one we just had in Feb and it was like half as much.

I don't know about that. In the last 50 years, probably. There were some very good winters around 1916, 1917, 1918, 1936, 1949-50, and some others. I'm probably off on some of those years, just going from memory.

[Jesse]

Models are backing off the cold with the weekend trough. Mark said that seems to be a theme with the new GFS. It has a mid-range cold bias.

 

I’ve noticed if anything, at least with the series of cold troughs in the fall, it would often back off in the mid range only to trend colder again in the homestretch.

 

Glad to see the ensembles trending wetter again in the mid range, too.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks amazing! We decided to just make it a day trip, going to get there around 9am and spend the day, then head back in the early evening.

 

BTW is that your place?

So here is a link to what is happening on the 20th.  Good to get there early, BTW.  https://leavenworth.org/calendar/2019-12-20/   

https://2ganwc3heo6y2kcytm13s0hf-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019-Weekend-3-Color.pdf

 

It will be busy as the day goes on, but not as busy as Saturday.  Though there will be a lot of people there in the evening.  

 

BTW, this pic is not of my house, but taken from my house looking around the neighborhood. 

 

[ShawniganLake]

These showers are clearly BLOB infused.

It has warmed up since this afternoon when the airmass turned showery. Up to 40F after a late afternoon low of 37F.

[jakeinthevalley]

Stairway to Heaven is on the radio right now. As I listen to the words I’m suddenly struck by the possibility it was written about the 1968 Sudden Stratospheric Warming...[/quote

 

Current weather...."Rain Song"

 

Models..."Lemon Song"

 

My status...."Dazed and Confused"

 

Led Zeppelin references notwithstanding

[Dave]

I’ve noticed if anything, at least with the series of cold troughs in the fall, it would often back off in the mid range only to trend colder again in the homestretch.

Glad to see the ensembles trending wetter again in the mid range, too.

You are normally very good at providing stats from previous interesting weather events. I was hoping to see your contributions during this weather lull.

[MossMan]

myhouse.jpg

So here is a link to what is happening on the 20th. Good to get there early, BTW. https://leavenworth.org/calendar/2019-12-20/

https://2ganwc3heo6y2kcytm13s0hf-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019-Weekend-3-Color.pdf

 

It will be busy as the day goes on, but not as busy as Saturday. Though there will be a lot of people there in the evening.

 

BTW, this pic is not of my house, but taken from my house looking around the neighborhood.

 

myhouse.jpg

This is great info, thanks! I’m about to PM you a question.

[Jesse]

You are normally very good at providing stats from previous interesting weather events. I was hoping to see your contributions during this weather lull.

Thanks. I am pretty sure you are correct about Eugene having historically seen bigger snow months than January ‘69. And definitely more than last February.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I don't know about that. In the last 50 years, probably. There were some very good winters around 1916, 1917, 1918, 1936, 1949-50, and some others. I'm probably off on some of those years, just going from memory.

I was referring to individual events not entire months.

[Jesse]

Saw this at Freddy’s today. I’m buying everyone on the forum one for Christmas on the off chance we don’t score this year.

 

[Blizzard777]

Saw this at Freddy’s today’s. I’m buying everyone on the forum one for Christmas on the off chance we don’t score this year.

 

14F6E011-1B54-451A-B40D-E33B6E9F0F3F.png

As seen on TV.....SCORE!

[Dave]

I was referring to individual events not entire months.

I like you TWL, but there is no way a 12" snowfall was the 2nd best Eugene has ever seen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I think there is some potential between Christmas and New Year's. 

[Dave]

And to TWL, what is your connection to Rutgers, I'm curious.

[Jesse]

I was referring to individual events not entire months.

I like you as well. But you should try to break the habit of seemingly making up stats as you go. Seems to happen a lot. If you don’t know just say you don’t know, and if you want to know, there are some really good resources here with which to find out.

[Jesse]

I think there is some potential between Christmas and New Year's.

 

Basic climo?

[BLI snowman]

I think there is some potential between Christmas and New Year's. 

 

I think it might be a couple weeks into January before we're out of this rut.

[Deweydog]

I think it might be a couple weeks into January before we're out of this rut.

MLK

[ShawniganLake]

Euro is looking very wet end of next week

[GHweatherChris]

Saw this at Freddy’s today. I’m buying everyone on the forum one for Christmas on the off chance we don’t score this year.

 

14F6E011-1B54-451A-B40D-E33B6E9F0F3F.png

Already have one.

[MossMan]

Up to .70” on the day, 2.46” on the month.

[ShawniganLake]

Up to .70” on the day, 2.46” on the month.

If the euro verifies it will be a good test for your drainage system

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Euro is looking very wet end of next week

And warm, unfortunately.  This looks almost like a pineapple express.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I am eager to see how models look by Saturday or Sunday 00z. It does appear what we thought might be a bigger pattern change with a consolidated jet is yet again going to be brief and blocking returns after Day 8 with a central US/Southeast US ridge. I like the potential. Before we look that far out this could be an AR event/wind storm pattern too.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 28 minutes

[MossMan]

And warm, unfortunately. This looks almost like a pineapple express.

Nooooo! Hope it stays cool enough over your way to keep the snow around!