December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Esquimalt]

EUG Ensemble 12-13 12z.png

 

Indeed more cold members.

We had a couple of members here this morning that went full arctic.  One bottomed 850s at -19. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Areas around Pacific City had seagulls all huddled up in front of the Pelican pub in Feb 2014. 10” all the way down to the beaches.

[Deweydog]

We had a mannequin head we got as a white elephant gift at Christmas get buried by snow in the front yard in February 2014.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

More widespread mountain snow on this run, especially Oregon.  Those ridiculous snow totals from last night for the North Cascades were probably at very high elevations, a higher resolution model would have had a smaller area of those really high totals.  

 

 

Last nights total snowfall:

[Phil]

I know I should not be looking this far ahead, but what do you think the ENSO will be for next winter?

I have no clue, man. A multi-year La Niña is likely to initiate during the early 2020s, but that might not come into play next year. The weak solar cycle appears to have dampened the amplitude of the IPWP cyclicality which has helped predict ENSO so well since the 1950s. Similar to the late 1970s except worse, lol.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

 

 

And at day 15 for Jared:

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

12Z EPS for the 10-15 day period:

 

 

 

 

 

 

And at day 15 for Jared:

 

 

More shitt flow.

[El_Nina]

Some big flakes falling in Southern Oregon

[Jesse]

More shitt flow.

Actually much improved compared to previous runs.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Actually much improved compared to previous runs.

Let’s hope the trend continues.

[TT-SEA]

Let’s hope the trend continues.

 

 

Its more just the passage of time rather than a trend.  

 

It finally shows the trough being sent inland in the long range now.... which of course is not the same period as it was 5 days ago. 

[ShawniganLake]

Its more just the passage of time rather than a trend.

 

It finally shows the trough being sent inland in the long range now.... which of course is not the same period as it was 5 days ago.

Bring on January. Nothing cold will come out of that.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Its more just the passage of time rather than a trend.  

 

It finally shows the trough being sent inland in the long range now.... which of course is not the same period as it was 5 days ago. 

But it has shifted East from previous runs for the same day.  In the overall pattern, not a big shift, but it could make a big difference for the mountains.

 

And looking at weather.us, the EPS is definitely cooler and snowier than last nights in the long range.  Not a big shift overall like I said, but it makes a difference.  And a bigger difference in the 4-5 day range, as both the EPS and the operational show a much weaker ridge over us than previous runs.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TT-SEA]

But it has shifted East from previous runs for the same day.  In the overall pattern, not a big shift, but it could make a big difference for the mountains.

 

And looking at weather.us, the EPS is definitely cooler and snowier than last nights in the long range.  Not a big shift overall like I said, but it makes a difference.  And a bigger difference in the 4-5 day range, as both the EPS and the operational show a much weaker ridge over us than previous runs.

 

 

Yeah... shifting the AR event southward was a really nice improvement.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

It was quite wintry 3 years ago today... that was a decent cold snap.

 

Lovely photo.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Week 2 temperature departures from BAMwx. Looks like they are ignoring weather models but you have to be a subscriber to see their reasoning. Low confidence in their forecast though.

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

12-13-19 Long-range: Ignoring weather models at this rate & here is why. M.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1205471990305492992

[HighlandExperience]

Week 2 temperature departures from BAMwx. Looks like they are ignoring weather models but you have to be a subscriber to see their reasoning. Low confidence in their forecast though.

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

12-13-19 Long-range: Ignoring weather models at this rate & here is why. M.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1205471990305492992

East coast biased

[MossMan]

Week 2 temperature departures from BAMwx. Looks like they are ignoring weather models but you have to be a subscriber to see their reasoning. Low confidence in their forecast though.

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

12-13-19 Long-range: Ignoring weather models at this rate & here is why. M.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1205471990305492992

Massive east coast bias right there.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago

More

Models have been all over the place as of late. Here's a look at temperature departures from normal for #Christmas Eve from the ECMWF EPS. T-shirt weather for some you might say.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

East coast biased

Massive east coast bias right there.

Yeah, wish I could see their reasoning.

[MossMan]

Facebook reminded me that I lost a bet on this day 10yrs ago...Apparently I was a little premature and called for a snowstorm and my co workers said nope...I bet an order of pizza that it would...I had to buy pizza for all of my co workers.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Facebook reminded me that I lost a bet on this day 10yrs ago...Apparently I was a little premature and called for a snowstorm and my co workers said nope...I bet an order of pizza that it would...I had to buy pizza for all of my co workers.

Who did you order the pizzas from?

[Blizzard777]

Week 2 temperature departures from BAMwx. Looks like they are ignoring weather models but you have to be a subscriber to see their reasoning. Low confidence in their forecast though.

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

12-13-19 Long-range: Ignoring weather models at this rate & here is why. M.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1205471990305492992

Confidence meter low

[Gradient Keeper]

As others mentioned definitely happy to see today's 12z EURO breaking down the ridging much sooner thus leading to a cooler, wetter scenario and far more mountain snow. Unfortunately in the long range not really seeing a strong signal for blocking. As we know anything beyond Day 7 can change quickly.

 

18z GFS in 3 minutes

18z GEFS in 1 hour 33 minutes

00z GFS in 6 hours 3 minutes

00z GEM in 6 hours 23 minutes

00z ECMWF in 8 hours 18 minutes

00z EPS in 11 hours 2 minutes

[Omegaraptor]

Druncle!!!!

[Deweydog]

Game changer!

[MossMan]

Who did you order the pizzas from?

Sahara!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 50F. Ugh...

[Omegaraptor]

47 at HIO and 49 at PDX. HIO winds just switched to southerly.

[Jesse]

Up to 50F. Ugh...

 

Gonna totally kill today's snow chances.

 

Donkey kong shaking head.

[Timmy Supercell]

Wow, loving this constant flow of moisture here. Rained for hours straight and turned to wet snow around 11-ish. So far it's only accumulated on grass or roofs. Can't be more than 1/10th inch in those spots.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wow, loving this constant flow of moisture here. Rained for hours straight and turned to wet snow around 11-ish. So far it's only accumulated on grass or roofs.

The king says you’ll be having a lot more goodies in the 120 hr range.

[Timmy Supercell]

The king says you’ll be having a lot more goodies in the 120 hr range.

 

I'll keep the ruler beside me.. I'm sure more inches are coming this month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I'll keep the ruler beside me.. I'm sure more inches are coming this month.

DomeJosh approves this message.

[ShawniganLake]

Week 2 temperature departures from BAMwx. Looks like they are ignoring weather models but you have to be a subscriber to see their reasoning. Low confidence in their forecast though.

 

BAMWX @bamwxcom

 

12-13-19 Long-range: Ignoring weather models at this rate & here is why. M.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1205471990305492992

Could always end up inversiony and cooler in the lowlands out west.

[Guest CulverJosh]

DomeJosh approves this message.

If you’re talking about snow then I’m all in.

 

Btw, pretty distinct sticking snow level around here from the east slopes to the higher hills here in Central OR out to the Ochocos and beyond. And not hyperbole. It was very consistent regionwide. About 3750’ is where the white stripe was, pretty cool actually. In bend it started about halfway up Pilot Butte and Awbrey Butte which are about 4100 to 4200’ respectively, about halfway up Powell Butte, and it was a recurring theme everywhere. Just kind of cool looking around today.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z is another yawn fest. 

[Timmy Supercell]

It was quite wintry 3 years ago today... that was a decent cold snap.

 

 

Nice view you got. I had a half foot on 12/14 that year but nothing super cold until the next January. After the huge snowstorm I had a -19 low on 01/07. Believe Pendleton and Portland CWA's had a cooler December than southern OR.

[Tyler Mode]

One of my best friends from high school moved to Christchurch last year, so I’m always seeing pictures on Facebook now. Looks really nice.

 

From a purely climate standpoint, there are also some places in Patagonia that would be pretty decent if we are talking Southern Hemisphere.

 

I loved Christchurch, though a little touristy for me.  Still, the scenery around there is amazing!