December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

Day 5 Wait. Kona still possible

 

 

 

 

GFS

 

 

Would be a great slogan for Hawaiian airlines.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF Day 5 past 2 runs

 

[OysterPrintout]

Euro holding its ground so far.

[Jesse]

Euro looks pretty D**n close to yesterday's 12Z for next Saturday morning (hour 144) as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

 

 

GFS

 

[Deweydog]

What an awesome/horrible run.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is much different than the 12Z GFS next weekend.

[Gradient Keeper]

If the block tilts Day 7 we'll go into cold quickly.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It’s over...

[GHweatherChris]

It’s over...

Can't be over if it never started.

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles are pretty decent

 

 

[Esquimalt]

It’s over...

You spoke too soon my friend

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Meh. UGH!

 

[Jesse]

Day 7 Meh. UGH!

 

Looks a lot better than yesterday’s 12z for that same time period. Ridge is in a much better spot for more energy to drop down from the NNW, as opposed to the ridge itself sliding overhead.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 is very different. Do not like that cut-off between the two ridges at all. Cut-off bias showing?

 

[Gradient Keeper]

What a rollercoaster of model riding the past 24 hours.

[Jesse]

Yesterday’s 12z for 1/6:

 

 

Today’s:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[MossMan]

I think we can all agree that the Euro is still looking way better than the big G. Also the Canadian ensembles look great...Things are looking up!

[Jesse]

Whatever details we want to fret about on the 12z Euro in the 6-10 day range..at least it didn’t trend toward the GFS. If anything it has trended better than yesterday’s 12z so far.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does show some lowland snow one week from tomorrow with a c-zone...

 

 

 

Less snow than the 00Z run through that time though.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 cold

 

[Jesse]

Things start to slide East by day 9, but a shot of some pretty cold air east side.

[Deweydog]

Backdoor!

[Jesse]

Backdoor!

You just had to say it! Now a half a dozen Puget sounders who didn’t even look at the run are going to start sticking forks in everything.

[Deweydog]

PV seems to be trending more stagnant.

 

Tic toc....

[TT-SEA]

Oh no!!   Someone does not like Matt's posts.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Backdoor!

 

Cross-Cascade gradient!!!

[MossMan]

PV seems to be tending more stagnant.

 

Tic toc....

MLK!

[Weiner Warrior]

Real snow chance for Puget Sound wasn't until hr 220-240 last run

[Gradient Keeper]

The million dollar question is, how different will 00z run be tonight? 12z GFS = Horrible. 12z GEFS = Worsened. 12z GEM = not great. 12z Canadian Ensembles = Pretty good. 12z EURO = Quite decent, but a few potential bad trends, but also close to being very good. 12z EPS ????

[Phil]

Always? A few weeks ago you were talking up the winter solstice period.

 

Look, I'll be the first to admit I thought things would turn interesting sooner this winter, so I'm not taking that angle at all with you. But let's not reframe things to try and make ourselves look better.

No I wasn’t. Stop talking out of your a**.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[TT-SEA]

Real snow chance for Puget Sound wasn't until hr 220-240 last run

 

 

Incorrect.

 

The 00Z ECMWF showed lowland snow up here around 180 hours.   The 12Z ECMWF delays that... and shows less snow overall through day 10.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[Phil]

Flatiron loves to invent imaginary Phil forecasts that never existed every time he busts a forecast.

 

I forecasted a warm December in the West. I thought the pattern would flip cold for the CONUS in late December then for the West later on. I was too fast with the flip. Oops.

[Jesse]

Nice to see the Euro holding on.

[Gradient Keeper]

Nice to see the Euro holding on.

Euro saved the day! Looks pretty cold for us.

[TT-SEA]

Disorganized block on the 12Z ECMWF.   

 

It shows a little lowland snow... but there is no arctic front "crashing down" on us like the 00Z run showed at day 10.     The 00Z run did not really show that either... but it was closer.  

 

The 12Z run is not as impressive at the end...cold is focused in the middle of the country.