December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Front Ranger]

Day 7 Block reorganizing way too far west. No ensembles show that, so no concern at this point.

 

Hate to beat a dead horse, but the ensembles have no direct relationship to the operational here, since they're run from two separate models...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

[Gradient Keeper]

Hate to beat a dead horse, but the ensembles have no direct relationship to the operational here, since they're run from two separate models...

I know that. No previous ensembles showed that kind of 500mb progression that the 00z GFS, GEM Op did. Tonight's 00z GEFS and CMCE just proved that.

[MossMan]

Day 7

Chilly! Call me crazy again but this is looking better than the GFS so far.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[Cloud]

Day 8

 

 

Yup. Not even agreeing with the GFS here. 

[snow_wizard]

The day 7 ECMWF is worlds better than the day 7 GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 chilly

 

[Front Ranger]

I know that. No previous ensembles showed that kind of 500mb progression that the 00z GFS, GEM Op did. Tonight's 00z GEFS and CMCE just proved that.

A lot of people on here seem to be having trouble grasping how the operational could be so different than the ensembles...when the explanation is fairly simple.

[GHweatherChris]

Nothing burger

[snow_wizard]

Day 8

 

 

Nice!

[snow_wizard]

A lot of people on here seem to be having trouble grasping how the operational could be so different than the ensembles...when the explanation is fairly simple.

 

I think the GFS just completely over thought the pattern.  It was an absolute mess.

[snow_wizard]

Nothing burger

 

The run isn't even done yet.  Thanks for the insight!

[GHweatherChris]

The run isn't even done yet. Thanks for the insight!

? My comment was not specific.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 ... Not too shabby. Slide that block a bit further east.

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

A lot of people on here seem to be having trouble grasping how the operational could be so different than the ensembles...when the explanation is fairly simple.

Not reallly, because the GEPS and the EPS were also similarly different than their operationals.   If it were that simple, the GEFS would be way different than the operational way more often. 

[snow_wizard]

The Weatherbell maps show lowland snow beginning around day 6 with the ECMWF.  Even snow over the ocean nearly this far south.

[snow_wizard]

Day 9 ... Not too shabby. Slide that block a bit further east.

 

 

That position will work for snow.

[MossMan]

I get that it's been updated and the ensembles are old GFS but that is still a fairly large difference in 850 temps, regardless of that fact.

 

If it was 2c or maybe even 5c different, sure, probably upgrade related. But +10c difference? That's notable. I think that's the point to be taken away from the current situation.

And then you have the Canadian and it’s ensembles being far apart as well...Very interesting!

[snow_wizard]

Really a fabulous ECMWF run.  Better than I was expecting in fact.

[Weiner Warrior]

Real cold temps right at the border.

[snow_wizard]

And then you have the Canadian and it’s ensembles being far apart as well...Very interesting!

 

The GEM ensemble is downright excellent.  This is looking great!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[Front Ranger]

Day 9 ... Not too shabby. Slide that block a bit further east.

 

Nice to see higher heights into AK.

[Gradient Keeper]

I almost peed my pants!

 

12z GFS in 8 hours 35 miutes

[MossMan]

00z Euro definitely better for Western WA snow.

 

Closer to 00z run from last night and much better than 12z.

 

Start of step back to better solutions?

6”+ for me!

[TT-SEA]

Differences come down to how energy splits one week from today. GFS keeps it up north and ECMWF sends it southeast into the CONUS.

 

Tough situation to resolve. Minor details make for huge differences afterwards.

[Gradient Keeper]

I PEED MY PANTS

 

Day 10

 

[Cloud]

I threw that GFS run out the window half way thru. That was obviously trash, I suspect the 06z will fall back in line.

[Gradient Keeper]

Once that trough kicks out of the eastern US Day 11-15 would turn us into ice cubes.

[snow_wizard]

I PEED MY PANTS

 

Day 10

 

 

Jackpot! 

[Front Ranger]

Not reallly, because the GEPS and the EPS were also similarly different than their operationals. If it were that simple, the GEFS would be way different than the operational way more often.

Apples to oranges. The GFS operational was way different much earlier.

[Deweydog]

Extrapolaters!

 

We ride!!!!!!!!!

[MossMan]

Not to keep beating the dead late Jan 2019 comparison horse but the upswing of the horrific model runs started with the 00z Euro the evening of the 29th...If this thing actually plays out in our favor it makes me wonder if there is some sort of a mid range warm bias programed in the models. Seems to be a reoccurring theme.

[Front Ranger]

I PEED MY PANTS

 

Day 10

 

I'd marry that block.

[Weiner Warrior]

Good amount of moisture hr 200 to 240. Hoping it cools a little more for sea level snow

[Phil]

I PEED MY PANTS

 

Day 10

 

Oh my.

[Winterdog]

Day 10 looks like a snow producer

[Deweydog]

Coast to coast cold!