December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[jakeinthevalley]

They still haven't done it for awhile.

 

And way to ignore the Barrow stat. 1974 is almost 50 years ago.

D**n you for putting that in perspective tonight. I was born in 1968.

 

Thanks for reminding me I am old!!

[Front Ranger]

At least we can't blame the blob.  It was totally and completely destroyed back in September... ripped to shreds by cold troughing and NW flow.   It never stood a chance.

 

 

The original "blob" was centered just off the west coast. Not way off in the GOA. Not the same thing.

[TT-SEA]

The original "blob" was centered just off the west coast. Not way off in the GOA. Not the same thing.

 

Not my point...  this new version has been in the same general place for months.    It was not destroyed.

[weatherfan2012]

In Miami. What a horrible climate..it’s like I teleported back to September.

  Makes it not seem like the christmas season but more like the Forth of July I bet down there 

[MossMan]

d**n you for putting that in perspective tonight. I was born in 1968.

 

Thanks for reminding me I am old!!

And I thought that I was old...1976

[Front Ranger]

Not my point...  this new version has been in the same general place for months.    It was not destroyed.

 

I know. I just think it's dumb that people have started calling any area of warm anomalies in the NE Pacific "the blob".

[BLI snowman]

Oops, was looking at max temps. 

 

Still, the coldest December weather in Alaska for quite awhile. As I said, the due to the strong PV that has been bottling up cold away from the mid latitudes. But that's changing.

 

That's like saying that 2019 was our region's coldest summer in quite awhile.

[Front Ranger]

That's like saying that 2019 was our region's coldest summer in quite awhile.

 

Not really. Parts of AK have been seeing -20 or greater anomalies. McGrath just saw a -33 anomaly day.

[BLI snowman]

Not really. Parts of AK have been seeing -20 or greater anomalies. McGrath just saw a -33 anomaly day.

Big swings and departures are very normal there. Relative to climo it's the same.

[Front Ranger]

Big swings and departures are very normal there. Relative to climo it's the same.

 

Thanks to the recent cold wave, large areas of AK including Fairbanks and McGrath will end up with a below normal December. 

 

Same could not be said for summer 2019 in the PNW.

[BLI snowman]

Thanks to the recent cold wave, large areas of AK including Fairbanks and McGrath will end up with a below normal December. 

 

Same could not be said for summer 2019 in the PNW.

 

Modestly versus the 1981-10 averages, yes. Pretty clearly not an impressive month by any means, and "coldest in awhile" isn't saying anything given the record-shatteringly warm last few years.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS rolling out now. Probably will be different than before. Like always.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 2

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is like getting close to halftime of a ballgame. Need to score a TD here.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[MossMan]

This is like getting close to halftime of a ballgame. Need to score a TD here.

“It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish!”

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5

 

[The Swamp]

Day 3.5 looks good for mountain snow.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 critical time now

 

[The Swamp]

Come on SE ridge!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4.5

 

[Esquimalt]

Ngl looking very similar to the 12Z

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Gradient Keeper]

This is the point at Day 5 where the operational was a huge outlier to the ensembles though. Keep that in mind.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Not good...

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 past 8 runs

 

[The Swamp]

ridge merger needed 

[luvssnow_spokane]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 nope

 

[The Swamp]

Day 6 nope

 

 It's all getting held up by border patrol to our north.

 

Somebody find the cold air a valid passport.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty heavy rain Friday night. 

[MossMan]

Going back and looking further at the timeframe similar to now back in January 2019 it appeared we had to endure almost two days of really crappy models. Tim posted a map on the 28th where there was no lowland snow in sight past the 5th of February...well we all know what happened starting on the 4th!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7 Block reorganizing way too far west. No ensembles show that, so no concern at this point.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Geez bad run again. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Operational runs continue to blow.  Not a good sign.

 

Good thing we got nailed in Feb.

[Cloud]

Ok I’m done watching this for now. Just too ugly for me.

[Esquimalt]

Don't forget the ensembles are run off the old GFS...can we still give them as much credibility as the op run"? 

[luvssnow_spokane]

How am I feeling about tonight’s GFS run? 
ANSWER: