December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Best ensembles by a MUDSLIDE(or landslide) since late November.

[Winterdog]

I’m still browsing the Jan 2019 thread and the ensembles posted there are showing up as current runs...and to me they look lovely!

Because they are based on the old GFS. We are lamenting the FV3 which is now the operational GFS.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS Portland surface temps. Hmmm!

 

[MossMan]

Because they are based on the old GFS. We are lamenting the FV3 which is now the operational GFS.

So we need to discount the ensembles. Old junk?

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS Seattle surface temps

 

[TT-SEA]

It's one of my favorites. Just so you know the early part of S1 is the weakest - it continuously gets better. Season 3 was amazing, especially considering it was on Syfy of all channels. I'm curious to see how it does on Amazon. I've only heard great things so far and S4E1 was pretty good.

 

Anyways, I highly recommend it if you like sci-fi/political drama stuff.

 

 

Yeah... it went from 77% on Rotten Tomatoes for season 1 to 95% in season 2 and then 100% for seasons 3 and 4.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 1

 

[Winterdog]

So we need to discount the ensembles. Old junk?

Or hope the FV3 has its head up it’s a**.

[Deweydog]

The email contact is using the old GFS.

[GHweatherChris]

00Z GFS must not have been good, the usual culprits are not on here telling us how great it might be....

[TT-SEA]

The new GFS has been solid since the upgrade. I have been impressed overall. Sometimes it leads the ECMWF. For example... the GFS has been showing this weekend being fairly dry in WA for a week now. The ECMWF once looked wet and has slowly caved to the drier GFS solution. And it's a fairly dry weekend.

 

ECMWF is still king... but the GFS is getting closer.

[Deweydog]

00Z GFS must not have been good, the usual culprits are not on here telling us how great it might be....

It’s available to review ONLINE!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[ttt]

Just saw an add for The Expanse and thought I should check it out.

Expanse is good and it gets better every season (4)

[GHweatherChris]

It’s available to review ONLINE!!!

I am LAZY..

[Jesse]

At least the next 7-10 days are looking pretty dang wet.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[snow_wizard]

Holy crap!  On the 0z ensemble the operational was the absolute warmest member and the control one of the coldest with a drop to -11 at one point.  Talk about a complex pattern evolution.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 clearly better than the GFS, but won't know until Day 5

 

[snow_wizard]

Day 4 clearly better than the GFS, but won't know until Day 5

 

 

I have a better chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same day than that GFS run has of verifying.

[Deweydog]

I have a better chance of winning the lottery and being struck by lightning in the same day than that GFS run has of verifying.

It was THAT cold???

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GEFS Seattle surface temps

 

Do u have EUG?

[snow_wizard]

From a 500mb pattern perspective the 0z GFS ensemble is by far better than any previous run.  Much sharper GOA block.  I think the operational over thought the pattern.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Meanwhile, I will play the same comparison game with the Canadian vs. its' ensembles.

 

Operational, hour 240

 

 

Ensemble:

 

 

And also the GEFS at the same hour

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Meanwhile, I will play the same comparison game with the Canadian vs. its' ensembles.

 

Operational, hour 240

 

 

Ensemble:

 

 

And also the GEFS at the same hour

 

BIG January on the way

[snow_wizard]

It was THAT cold???

 

No....simply THAT unlikely.

[Winterdog]

From a 500mb pattern perspective the 0z GFS ensemble is by far better than any previous run.  Much sharper GOA block.  I think the operational over thought the pattern.

It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS?

[seattleweatherguy]

BIG January on the way

Cant wait

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles

 

[snow_wizard]

BIG January on the way

 

One thing for sure is they all have major GOA blocking including the outlandish GFS run.

[Requiem]

I think all one can really say at this point is that a very complex pattern will be unfolding and each run is most definitely going to change, sometimes in minor ways that end up having huge implications (on whether or not we have crazy cold and snow or not).

[snow_wizard]

It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS?

 

No.  The GFS ensemble looks just like the EPS has been looking for days.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 6

 

[snow_wizard]

I think all one can really say at this point is that a very complex pattern will be unfolding and each run is most definitely going to change, sometimes in minor ways that end up having huge implications (on whether or not we have crazy cold and snow or not).

 

I think the strong -PNA will trump everything in the end.

[Weiner Warrior]

Looks better

[MossMan]

Canadian ensembles

 

So are these based on the old GEM?

[Deweydog]

So are these based on the old GEM?

The old GEM is in French.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

It doesn’t concern you that the ensembles are based on the old GFS?

Although it is still based on the old GFS, it was upgraded this summer.  

[Gradient Keeper]

The old GEM is in French.

What? LOL

 

6z GFS in 3 hours