December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What we know: Solid ensemble agreement for pattern change on January 3rd. That's in just 5 1/2 days. Timing has moved forward instead of pushing everything back as we so often see. Massive supply of cold air to our north. PNA, EPO to be heavily in our favor. Looking at Day 5 to 6 we are quite close to seeing a ridge merger take place and if that happens along with a kona low we'll go into an arctic pattern quickly. No sign of split flow. Doing jumping jacks make me fart. Frosty the Snowman smokes meth in his pipe that's what makes him magically come alive and dance around. The story claims its his hat, but we know better than that. Santa might not be real. Epstein didn't kill himself

 

What we don't know: Heading through the first two weeks of January do we just see cold onshore flow that progressively turns colder enough for snow to 500' and to the valley floor at times with slushy accumulations. Do snow levels remain 1000-2000'+. Do we see a historic January with snow and reloads. Will Tim and Andrew be snowed in. Who killed Epstein.

 

I didn't realise Red Sox fans were still so bitter about Theo going to the Cubs all those years ago.

[Jbolin]

Call me crazy...But the ensembles continue to improve as the operational gets worse...interesting. Oh and I am working on something that will either make for a full winter go...or winter cancel...Stay tuned!

Now I'm scared

[Gradient Keeper]

I didn't realise Red Sox fans were still so bitter about Theo going to the Cubs all those years ago.

Haha! Nicely played..... Go Blue Jays!

 

00z GFS in 3 hours!!!! Be ready for greatness

[Blizzard777]

Why wait? Here's a fork to go with the tissues.Screenshot_20191228-163209.png

This also could secretly be the analog for the ridge amplifying in a HUGE way....if you can just give it a wee bit of a tilt we’re in business!!! Think positive!!! 

[Blizzard777]

Call me crazy...But the ensembles continue to improve as the operational gets worse...interesting. Oh and I am working on something that will either make for a full winter go...or winter cancel...Stay tuned!

Which one is right more often?   Anyone? 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

48/32 for a +0.8 departure.

[Phil]

In Miami. What a horrible climate..it’s like I teleported back to September.

[TT-SEA]

In Miami. What a horrible climate..it’s like I teleported back to September.

 

Surprising... its warm in a warm climate?    Did you know this was going to happen?

 

Heavenly.   That is why millions of people vacation in tropical places during the winter every year.    

 

I already miss those warm, gentle trade winds and humidity and the sand between my toes.  

[MossMan]

I went ahead and put all of the pieces together this evening and my mower is now officially converted to a snow mover! It’s going to happen folks!!

[Front Ranger]

Have been pretty busy and been in the (toasty) Midwest. Thoughts are as follows:

 

1. It's going to be January.

2. 3rd-4th trough has never looked like anything interesting below 1000'.

3. That leads us to 7th-8th before next downstream response with potential for any arctic air. 11-13 days out simply doesn't warrant too much discussion.

4. Nothing has pointed to major blast potential, IMO. This doesn't seem to be the progression for it to happen and significant amplification is hard to come by. I sense January 2012 is perhaps the best case scenario and that was with a more solid background setup.

5. It's going to be January.

 

As long as you ignore yesterday's runs, yes.

[TT-SEA]

I’m with you Tim. Most people love that kind of weather, and I, much like yourself, hate it when people talk down about warmer climates with their irrational love for colder or unsettled weather that causes millions of dollars or damage and weather that will impact the lives and millions in untold and evil ways. Not only should people temper their expectations for anything more than a few flakes, but we need a full on attitude change.

 

What kind of a******* even like cooler weather?

I did not say anything about someone liking a cooler climate. I was just saying not all people think a warm climate is "horrible".

 

Ironically... many people describe the climate of western WA as "horrible". I hear it all the time. Many say that on this forum. I defend our climate as well.

[High Desert Mat?]

Not based on anything but I think tonight’s 00z will either give us what we’re looking for or it won’t. I’m betting on that it gives all what we want. Truthfully tho the models won’t nail anything down until Monday or so for the consistency we’re all looking for and that’s based on the models leading up to the massive bombing storm just before thanksgiving. Who knows, maybe Josh is just drunk.

[Blizzard777]

I went ahead and put all of the pieces together this evening and my mower is now officially converted to a snow mover! It’s going to happen folks!!

Confidence level elevated 

[TT-SEA]

Randy's post showing our conversation in late January was revealing. Operational runs went to crap but the EPS on board. EPS ended up being very right.

[Front Ranger]

This month has been total trash.

 

More mountain snow than November, at least.

[snow_wizard]

The 18z EPS digs the day 6 trough into the NW more solidly than the 12z and the GOA block is a bit sharper as well.  That run only goes to day 6 so that's all I know.

[BLI snowman]

As long as you ignore yesterday's runs, yes.

 

Even the coldest runs have been about -7c at 850mb with onshore flow. A definite improvement over the recent weather but a far cry from a lock for anything significant below 1000'.

[Front Ranger]

Yeah, that’s the part I’m having trouble understanding. The models always just showed a good pattern for mountain/foothill snow at best in the believable range. And a handful of runs hinted at more potential down the road, but that was never consistent.

 

Maybe for PDX area, but several runs yesterday showed lowland snowfall for western WA. Within 8-9 days.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I had a chance to go to Miami in late April for a work thing, but I am skipping it and taking the wife and kids to the Jazz festival in NOLA. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm. This is interesting.

On Days/Nights where I take a shower we have poor model runs, trends. On Days/Nights I do not shower we have really good to exceptional runs, trends. I guess that means I'll be sleeping out in the barn tonight.

Update: I don't have a barn

Building a barn. Be back later.

Believe in Cold and SNOW!!!! even if it means sacrificing everything, mainly body odor, and the growing lack of friends or family wanting to be near me. C'MON!!!!

[Front Ranger]

Even the coldest runs have been about -7c at 850mb with onshore flow. A definite improvement over the recent weather but a far cry from a lock for anything significant below 1000'.

 

Of course, I don't think anyone claimed anything significant below 1000' was a lock at this point.

[Omegaraptor]

I did not say anything about someone liking a cooler climate. I was just saying not all people think a warm climate is "horrible".

 

Ironically... many people describe the climate of western WA as "horrible". I hear it all the time. Many say that on this forum. I defend our climate as well.

 

This climate has comfortable outdoor temps for 8 months of the year, and the other 4 are not that cold.

 

If the Earth spun the other way and we got the Oyashio current, Western WA would probably have a climate similar to Hokkaido or Sakhalin. People just like to complain.

[TT-SEA]

Hmmm. This is interesting.

 

On Days/Nights where I take a shower we have poor model runs, trends. On Days/Nights I do not shower we have really good to exceptional runs, trends. I guess that means I'll be sleeping out in the barn tonight.

 

Update: I don't have a barn

 

Building a barn. Be back later.

 

Believe in Cold and SNOW!!!! even if it means sacrificing everything, mainly body odor, and the growing lack of friends or family wanting to be near me. C'MON!!!!

 

[snow_wizard]

This climate has comfortable outdoor temps for 8 months of the year, and the other 4 are not that cold.

 

If the Earth spun the other way and we got the Oyashio current, Western WA would probably have a climate similar to Hokkaido or Sakhalin. People just like to complain.

 

I think you are bit off on the 4 month thing.  We have plenty of chilly weather even in the spring and mid fall sometimes.

[Front Ranger]

For some perspective, there's been very little cold air recently anywhere on a global scale. Europe and Asia have been massively torching.

 

We really need a strong -ENSO response at this point to shake up the system.

 

The mid latitudes have been torching because of the strong PV. Once that changes, a lot will change for the mid latitudes as well.

 

Fairbanks hit -40 yesterday. Coldest December temp in quite awhile. Barrow hit -32, their coldest December temp since 1974.

[snow_wizard]

I kind of reject the notion there is no real signal for major blocking.  Pretty much every run is showing that.  It's more of a detail thing.

[GHweatherChris]

I went ahead and put all of the pieces together this evening and my mower is now officially converted to a snow mover! It’s going to happen folks!!

What have you done you monster...

[BLI snowman]

The mid latitudes have been torching because of the strong PV. Once that changes, a lot will change for the mid latitudes as well.

 

Fairbanks hit -40 yesterday. Coldest December temp in quite awhile. Barrow hit -32, their coldest December temp since 1974.

 

Eh, pretty run-of-the-mill stretch for most of AK as well even with the PV near them the past couple weeks. Fairbanks hitting -40 in late December isn't a big deal. Their record low highs are around -50 at this time of year.

 

And I have no idea where you saw that Barrow stat. Their coldest December temp since 1974 is -49 in 1994. The -32 reading there is not a significant benchmark.

[Front Ranger]

Call me crazy...But the ensembles continue to improve as the operational gets worse...interesting. Oh and I am working on something that will either make for a full winter go...or winter cancel...Stay tuned!

 

It's not crazy, especially considering the GFS ensembles are run off the old GFS, and the operational is the new GFS. 

 

Different models, different results.

[Front Ranger]

Surprising... its warm in a warm climate?    Did you know this was going to happen?

 

Heavenly.   That is why millions of people vacation in tropical places during the winter every year.    

 

I already miss those warm, gentle trade winds and humidity and the sand between my toes.  

 

<_>

 

Negative weenie points. No one wants to talk about boring tropical climates on here.

[Front Ranger]

Eh, pretty run-of-the-mill stretch for most of AK as well even with the PV near them the past couple weeks. Fairbanks hitting -40 in late December isn't a big deal. Their record low highs are around -50 at this time of year.

 

They still haven't done it for awhile. 

 

And way to ignore the Barrow stat. 1974 is almost 50 years ago.

[TT-SEA]

<_>

 

Negative weenie points. No one wants to talk about boring tropical climates on here.

So negative weenie points means I am less of a weenie now??

 

I assume weenie points are bad.

[BLI snowman]

They still haven't done it for awhile. 

 

And way to ignore the Barrow stat. 1974 is almost 50 years ago.

 

See my edit. It's odd that you would find that "stat" when it's so far from being a reality

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?ak0546

 

And Alaska has been utterly torching for years now, since the cold 2006-13 stretch.

[Jesse]

Maybe for PDX area, but several runs yesterday showed lowland snowfall for western WA. Within 8-9 days.

Surprised you consider days 8-9 the believable range. Don’t you refuse to even look at the GFs past day 10.

[Andrew.]

[TT-SEA]

At least we can't blame the blob.  It was totally and completely destroyed back in September... ripped to shreds by cold troughing and NW flow.   It never stood a chance.

 

[Front Ranger]

Eh, pretty run-of-the-mill stretch for most of AK as well even with the PV near them the past couple weeks. Fairbanks hitting -40 in late December isn't a big deal. Their record low highs are around -50 at this time of year.

 

And I have no idea where you saw that Barrow stat. Their coldest December temp since 1974 is -49 in 1994. The -32 reading there is not a significant benchmark.

 

Oops, was looking at max temps. 

 

Still, the coldest December weather in Alaska for quite awhile. Due to the strong PV that has been bottling up cold away from the mid latitudes. But that's changing.

[Front Ranger]

So negative weenie points means I am less of a weenie now??

 

I assume weenie points are bad.

 

We are all weather weenies. 

[Jesse]

[Front Ranger]

Surprised you consider days 8-9 the believable range. Don’t you refuse to even look at the GFs past day 10.

 

Semi-believable, especially the Euro. The GFS past day 10 is completely unbelievable.

 

Either way, some model runs yesterday were showing snow levels well below 1000' in the PNW lowlands for next weekend. Justin claimed nothing had shown that for that period, which was incorrect.