December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Requiem]

You can't let poor model runs or what seems like a "bust" or things are falling apart to dictate your mood, trust me, and others shouldn't either. I see that's occurring though. It is what it is. We can't control what we can't control.

 

00z ECMWF beginning now. Root for a miracle

Absolutely. I think last February was where I really let it control my mood— in conjunction with OCD and anxiety it didn’t do me any favors.

 

Onto better runs!

[El_Nina]

I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are.

[TT-SEA]

I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are.

 

 

Unless you don't care about cold weather... then its a great time to be young!  

[BLI snowman]

I mean, other people cheer for snow incessantly. Am I really any different from any of those posters? Sure, I’ll try to “break new ground” as you claim I should do, but I’m hardly the only person who’s guilty of this pattern. I’m not the most well-versed in weather as a whole, and have been called out in the past over faulty information. So typically I stay out of that stuff because I know there are smarter people on here.

 

I agree that I sometimes use my posts as a way to b*tch about the weather. Guilty as charged.

 

Most of us know just enough to armchair read the models, which you seem to know how to do, so I don't think your knowledge is any more rudimentary than the rest of us. We're all guilty of being repetitive, I think you just get a little more grief both because of your age and the woe-is-me tone to a lot of your posts. I would just encourage you to study and root for what you like and try to understand it as much as possible so that you're not repeating the same points too often. I think we've established that Portland hasn't had a lot of wind since 2017, for example.

[Gradient Keeper]

Absolutely. I think last February was where I really let it control my mood— in conjunction with OCD and anxiety it didn’t do me any favors.

 

Onto better runs!

Ahhh, that adds a more element to it. Doesn't make it any easier. Yep Onto better runs, whether that's in January or February.

[ShawniganLake]

I think it's a lot more upsetting to live in a warming climate the younger you are.

We are on the edge of a cliff. About to descend into an ice age. Enjoy these warm snow free days while we have them.

[El_Nina]

Unless you don't care about cold weather... then its a great time to be young!

 

Let's trade ages!

[Requiem]

Most of us know just enough to armchair read the models, which you seem to know how to do, so I don't think your knowledge is any more rudimentary than the rest of us. We're all guilty of being repetitive, I think you just get a little more grief both because of your age and the woe-is-me tone to a lot of your posts. I would just encourage you to study and root for what you like and try to understand it as much as possible so that you're not repeating the same points too often. I think we've established that Portland hasn't had a lot of wind since 2017, for example.

Noted with enthusiasm. I think it’s the aforementioned “weather effecting my mood” phenomenon (or rather, letting any mental health issues play out in my zeal for the weather) that leads me into that rut. I’ll try not to let it happen too often in the future.

[TT-SEA]

Let's trade ages!

 

 

I thought you were moving to Florida??  

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF Day 1

 

[Phil]

Yes, you were. I don't make stuff up.

 

It's not a big deal. Just don't make inaccurate statements like that and you won't get called out.

No, I wasn’t.

 

You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent.

[El_Nina]

I thought you were moving to Florida??  

Always can. This state has my heart though

[Weiner Warrior]

Euro day 1 look 1000x better

[MossMan]

Down to 45 degrees...The arctic front must be nearing Bellingham!

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS finally completed. Meh. 850mb ensembles Chilly to marginally chilly onshore flow at times. That's it. No sign of cold. Can only hope tomorrows runs reverses course. Maybe it will.

[BLI snowman]

Noted with enthusiasm. I think it’s the aforementioned “weather effecting my mood” phenomenon (or rather, letting any mental health issues play out in my zeal for the weather) that leads me into that rut. I’ll try not to let it happen too often in the future.

 

We definitely live in a climate where you will be on edge a lot of the time if you let the bad breaks impact your moods too much. We've all had to learn that at some point. I think studying the climate and its tendencies more helped me with keeping my expectations in check, which helps negate the emotional side to it somewhat. 

[MossMan]

Euro day 1 look 1000x better

We are golden!!

[TT-SEA]

Always can. This state has my heart though

 

Such different places.

 

You lament a warming climate... and talk of moving to a hot, humid swamp.  

[Weiner Warrior]

Lock in Day 1!

[Phil]

You went +1 at SEA for December in the forecast contest.

 

And in early December, you were absolutely talking about watching for things to turn interesting around the solstice. We both thought December would end on a lot colder note than it has. Oh well.

Not for the West. Learn how to read.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Deweydog]

Just giving you some honest advice. It doesn't add a lot to a discussion to make the same basic point over and over about us not seeing major windstorms recently. You're free to root for what you like, but I would encourage you to do a little research or break a little new ground rather than making the same despairing posts repeatedly.

It never snows and colds anymore and January sucks!

[Requiem]

We definitely live in a climate where you will be on edge a lot of the time if you let the bad breaks impact your moods too much. We've all had to learn that at some point. I think studying the climate and its tendencies more helped me with keeping my expectations in check, which helps negate the emotional side to it somewhat.

 

I stand by my assessment that 2016-2017 utterly spoilt me. I think that was the first year I really started paying attention to the weather all the time and that season lived up to its hype. So tempering those expectations is definitely wise! I’ll definitely try to do more reading up (and that was I can contribute more, too).

[BLI snowman]

It never snows and colds anymore and January sucks!

 

It does indeed. A cruel, cruel 31 days.

[Requiem]

No, I wasn’t.

You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent.

Oh...my.

[Phil]

I'm not worried at all as long as that big fat GOA block is there. I've never seen one of those in the position being shown not deliver in the end. It wouldn't shock me to see the Eastern trough diminish on future runs. Even if it remains it only spells a few days delay for us.

Technically the eastern trough is a result of the waveguide/dual forcing centers and it isn’t driving your weather. There was/is +AAM deposition in the tropics associated with the WWB, and it wasn’t initialized well by the modeling.

 

And it’s a complex MJO evolution..not a single/unified Maritime MJO wave but a destructive interference regime with at least two centers of action present..one over the WPAC the other over the EHEM. Will be tough for models to handle in the clown range.

[Winterdog]

We are golden!!

So time for a shower I’d say

[GHweatherChris]

****

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[FroYoBro]

No, I wasn’t.

 

You are completely and utterly full of s**t. A liar. A slimy little bait worm. Get bent.

You realize that this isn’t a reasonable response, right?

[Phil]

Oh...my.

My #1 pet peeve is having words put in my mouth.

 

I wouldn’t get this upset typically but Flatiron does this all the time. Claiming I said things that I didn’t say, rewriting history, moving goalposts, etc. It’s so d**n annoying.

[BLI snowman]

I stand by my assessment that 2016-2017 utterly spoilt me. I think that was the first year I really started paying attention to the weather all the time and that season lived up to its hype. So tempering those expectations is definitely wise! I’ll definitely try to do more reading up (and that was I can contribute more, too).

 

No worries, like you said, we're all guilty of being repetitive. I sense that you're keen on the analytical stuff so I encourage you to keep expanding on it.

 

The reality is that it mostly sucks being a weather weenie here. The fleeting exclamation points like 2016-17 are what draw us in, and they can serve to give us an imbalanced perspective on our climate and mostly just whet our appetites for something that rarely follows through. 

[DiBiYoSi]

This has to be the most schizophrenic corner on the entire internet during the winter, and I thoroughly enjoy watching it unfold year after year. Cheers y’all!!

[TT-SEA]

No worries, like you said, we're all guilty of being repetitive. I sense that you're keen on the analytical stuff so I encourage you to keep expanding on it.

 

The reality is that it mostly sucks being a weather weenie here. The fleeting exclamation points like 2016-17 are what draw us in, and they can serve to give us an imbalanced perspective on our climate and mostly just whet our appetites for something that rarely follows through. 

 

 

Its like a casino... win big once and you are sucked in forever and mostly losing.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'd would like to like Wee Knee's post but there's no button

[El_Nina]

Such different places.

 

You lament a warming climate... and talk of moving to a hot, humid swamp.  

I have more of a problem with it being above average, whatever that is, for the location I'm in. I would honestly feel more comfortable in 90* humidity like I do in Florida vs here because it's normal. I hate the thought of this beautiful planet burning up. I love the scenery in the PNW so much.

[Weiner Warrior]

Wee Knee sounds like a bad asian restaurant

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4 .... nope

 

[Phil]

You realize that this isn’t a reasonable response, right?

Except he does this every year, and has been for almost a decade now. It’d be one thing if it was a one-off, but we’ve long passed the straw that broke the camel’s back.

 

It’s annoying as hell and I’m tired of it.

[ShawniganLake]

My #1 pet peeve is having words put in my mouth.

 

I wouldn’t get this upset typically but Flatiron does this all the time. Claiming I said things that I didn’t say, rewriting history, moving goalposts, etc. It’s so d**n annoying.

I seem to remember you telling people to watch for things to turn blocky and cold around the holidays. But it’s possible that you were referring to your thoughts for other parts of the country because sometimes you just seem to throw all your ideas in the PNW thread and it gets confusing.