December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Prairiedog]

Saw a couple flickers yesterday when I was working in the yard. I love them except when they decide to pound on the house on occasion. I had to get a couple barn cats to control the rodent population, unfortunately I had to take down all our bird feeders. 

I have flickers all year round.  I have several other species of "peckers of wood" and they all use anything that resonates like a metal gutter, telephone pole, side of a house to stake out territory and attract mates in the spring.  They can be really annoying but it's temporary.  Once they get laid, it calms down.  I have a couple of piliated woodpeckers around right now.  Really cool birds!  All of them will visit suet feeders.  Fun to have them around. 

[GHweatherChris]

All true.

 

I think many of us old-timers spend lots of time pushing buttons because we know each other so well.

Well said.

[MossMan]

All true.

 

I think many of us old-timers spend lots of time pushing buttons because we know each other so well.

We actually started on the Old Farmers Almanac forum and then moved to the Yahoo groups if I remember correctly...When was that, 2003 or 04? I would get so mad at you when you would say the MRF was full of crap and we were not about to go into an arctic plunge!

[Kayla]

We actually started on the Old Farmers Almanac forum and then moved to the Yahoo groups if I remember correctly...When was that, 2003 or 04? I would get so mad at you when you would say the MRF was full of crap and we were not about to go into an arctic plunge!

 

17 years is a long time to know someone that you don't know.

[TT-SEA]

17 years is a long time to know someone that you don't know.

So true.

[Timmy]

I must say as much as Tim pushes buttons, including mine at times. The forum wasn’t the same without him. Jesse and matt didn’t post as much which on paper doesn’t sound terrible, but what took its place was far worse. The forums were especially unreadable at too many occasions. You had josh’s meltdown, Fred’s sarcasm, Rob’s (temporary) departure. I’m glad even though winter is over, the forum is back n’sync

[TT-SEA]

We actually started on the Old Farmers Almanac forum and then moved to the Yahoo groups if I remember correctly...When was that, 2003 or 04? I would get so mad at you when you would say the MRF was full of crap and we were not about to go into an arctic plunge!

We moved here in 2003 so probably right.

 

You remember details better than me.

[TT-SEA]

I must say as much as Tim pushes buttons, including mine at times. The forum wasn’t the same without him. Jesse and matt didn’t post as much which on paper doesn’t sound terrible, but what took its place was far worse. The forums were especially unreadable at too many occasions. You had josh’s meltdown, Fred’s sarcasm, Rob’s (temporary) departure. I’m glad even though winter is over, the forum is back n’sync

I highly doubt this apparently back-loaded winter is over!

[GHweatherChris]

We moved here in 2003 so probably right.

 

You remember details better than me.

Dang, I have only been on here for 11 years, I thought that was a long time!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice night. 44F between Springfield and Tangent.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think I started reading this forum until sometime in 2006. I was in college out in Oklahoma, but I remember following along on this forum during the late November 2006 snow event. I don't remember posting until 2008, though I may have a few times. I didn't get real active until late 2009 when I moved back to Oklahoma. I like that the crowd on here is a little more hardcore than Mark's blog or the Facebook groups. Nothing wrong with any of those platforms, I enjoy Rob's FB group for instance, but the weather related talk on here tends to be more stimulating. Not as many "will it snow at my house?" posts. 

[GHweatherChris]

I don't think I started reading this forum until sometime in 2006. I was in college out in Oklahoma, but I remember following along on this forum during the late November 2006 snow event. I don't remember posting until 2008, though I may have a few times. I didn't get real active until late 2009 when I moved back to Oklahoma. I like that the crowd on here is a little more hardcore than Mark's blog or the Facebook groups. Nothing wrong with any of those platforms, I enjoy Rob's FB group for instance, but the weather related talk on here tends to be more stimulating. Not as many "will it snow at my house?" posts.

Do you think it it will snow at my house ever again?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Do you think it it will snow at my house ever again?

A new Medieval Warm Period is descending upon us. We must dress accordingly.

[BLI snowman]

I must say as much as Tim pushes buttons, including mine at times. The forum wasn’t the same without him. Jesse and matt didn’t post as much which on paper doesn’t sound terrible, but what took its place was far worse. The forums were especially unreadable at too many occasions. You had josh’s meltdown, Fred’s sarcasm, Rob’s (temporary) departure. I’m glad even though winter is over, the forum is back n’sync

 

Tim brings a lot of knowledge and usually posts in good faith, in spite of the flack he often gets. The forum is infinitely more readable with him than with someone like CulverDomebusterSnowmanJosh spamming a hundred posts a day.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Do you think it it will snow at my house ever again?

 

Only if you believe. 

[Winterdog]

We actually started on the Old Farmers Almanac forum and then moved to the Yahoo groups if I remember correctly...When was that, 2003 or 04? I would get so mad at you when you would say the MRF was full of crap and we were not about to go into an arctic plunge!

Wow I didn’t know you’ve been here that long. I’ve been here since 2007 and thought I was here longer than you, under other names of course.

[TacomaWaWx]

Tomorrows system should be enough to push us over 8 inches of rain for the month. Should be breezy-windy with a chance of thunderstorms and showers mixed in. Not exactly fireworks weather or ideal new years celebration conditions.

[Randyc321]

Good storm rolling in Tomorrow 

Rain

Blustery wind 

T-storms

Some mountain snow 

 

 

You know we have had a boring winter so far when this is exciting.

 

Tuesday

Rain, mainly before 4pm. High near 52. Breezy, with a south wind 21 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really hope the 00z runs continue the active theme. Tired of all the split flow crap we've had the past couple of months. Even if it does not snow, a more active pattern would be infinitely more interesting than what we have seen since the end of October. 

[Requiem]

Well, on the positive side, Dome Buster was getting quite annoying to deal with. Lot nicer having someone who doesn't pick drunken Internet-arguments with people every two seconds.

[GHweatherChris]

Well, on the positive side, Dome Buster was getting quite annoying to deal with. Lot nicer having someone who doesn't pick drunken Internet-arguments with people every two seconds.

Hes not the only one on mod preview right now. Not having the other is helping as well, and that person is more annoying as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

I must say as much as Tim pushes buttons, including mine at times. The forum wasn’t the same without him. Jesse and matt didn’t post as much which on paper doesn’t sound terrible, but what took its place was far worse. The forums were especially unreadable at too many occasions. You had josh’s meltdown, Fred’s sarcasm, Rob’s (temporary) departure. I’m glad even though winter is over, the forum is back n’sync

I didn't react favorably because where was no sign Fred was being sarcastic or joking. I spoke with him about that. I really enjoy sarcasm, banter and what not when such intent is understood.

 

00z ECMW in 1 hour 51 minutes

[MossMan]

Wow I didn’t know you’ve been here that long. I’ve been here since 2007 and thought I was here longer than you, under other names of course.

I was originally R-Dub, then LakeGoodwinMossMan, then just MossMan!

[Front Ranger]

I must say as much as Tim pushes buttons, including mine at times. The forum wasn’t the same without him. Jesse and matt didn’t post as much which on paper doesn’t sound terrible, but what took its place was far worse. The forums were especially unreadable at too many occasions. You had josh’s meltdown, Fred’s sarcasm, Rob’s (temporary) departure. I’m glad even though winter is over, the forum is back n’sync

 

Eh, I agree Tim brings an extra something to the forum, but a lot of those things you listed were coincidental and tied more to what was happening in the models or who knows what else going on outside this forum. 

 

Tim has been very present and accounted for during many past meltdowns, departures, unreadable interludes, etc.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very possible it could be in the low 50s up here Friday evening and be snowing by 3-4am. It happens on occasion. The most extreme example was in November 2015 when it was 63 around 11pm and was snowing and 32 by 3am. Ended up with an inch or two of wet snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow I didn’t know you’ve been here that long. I’ve been here since 2007 and thought I was here longer than you, under other names of course.

 

I remember your posts way back. Didn't you used to live/or still do, near Granite Falls? 

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS

 

Day 1.5

 

Day 2

 

Day 3

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is digging the early weekend trough even further south. Going to be a Cascade snow bonanza. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS time. I expect to see a lot of rain on it.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

Day 5

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

So week 3 of the Euro weeklies is actually a bit cooler for the PNW than the last run, which was cooler than normal. This is the difference between the two, not the actual anomalies. From Ryan Maue

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So week 3 of the Euro weeklies is actually a bit cooler for the PNW than the last run, which was cooler than normal. This is the difference between the two, not the actual anomalies. From Ryan Maue

 

ENEFZrfX0AANwJ8.png

Lots of seasonably cool onshore flow.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The Sunday firehose slams into Vancouver Island instead of Astoria. Interesting to see how that effects the overall progression of the early run. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 7h7 hours ago

More

The Day 15 upper-level pattern from the 3 ensemble systems (ECMWF, GEFS, GEPS) all generally agree. With highly positive AO, I'd expect higher than normal predictability. I actually wrote a paper diagnosing why in 2011 -- enhanced 10-day skill during extreme AO phases.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 150 heights are a bit more suppressed over the Aleutians and the GOA low is weaker. At least in the mid-range this run may not be as good. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Kayla]

Aleutian ridge looks a lot more amplified and standing up at day 7. 

[Weiner Warrior]

Time to break out the shorts

[Winterdog]

I remember your posts way back. Didn't you used to live/or still do, near Granite Falls?

 

Yeah still live there. I was Winterdog back then.