snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Some really serious model improvement over the last few runs! Hard to not be pleased by the much better ensemble tonight as well. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 A good snow setup with -7C anomalies and not much of a continental fetch to dry things outDo you have a snow map handy from the 00z GFS? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 It'll cost at least $20K to move to ME or NH, and then if what you said about property tax there is true, in 6 years or so there goes another $20K. Something's gotta be done to cut carbon emissions, and residential heating is a big part of it. And New England has the highest heating costs outside of Alaska; don't think you'll get lower utility bills by moving there. I do share your skepticism about tearing out dams; as bad as the dams are, hydro is carbon-free power. Oh...don't tell me you have swallowed the man made global warming crap! 2 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I can only guess how much belly aching there was on here over the last two days. I have known all along this was going to pan out. The table is just too perfectly set this winter. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 5 Euro cut-off bias in full effect Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I can only guess how much belly aching there was on here over the last two days. I have known all along this was going to pan out. The table is just too perfectly set this winter. Don't count your chickens before they hatch1 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Do you have a snow map handy from the 00z GFS?The only one I have available goes to 240 hours and most of our snow is coming after that. Others have the snow maps that cover the entire run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 The winter of 2009-10 was great in NE Oklahoma. Top 5 snowiest and about a -6F temp departure DJF. Coldest October on record too. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 “January was amazing!” -12/31/19 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 At this time ten years ago I was in Bartlesville, OK and had just gotten married to my first wife a couple weeks before. There was snow on the ground and the next day would be cold with a 32/11 split. I had two wives and 4 kids in the past decade. lol10 years ago today I was still in college uncertain what my career path was going to be like. Had some ups and downs but it was all worth it and the decade ended well. Excited for what this next decade will bring! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Don't count your chickens before they hatch1I've been studiously avoiding either pessimism or optimism. The interesting stuff is still in deep clown range. OTOH, we usually do see accumulating snow in the lowlands at least once a winter, and I remember how much whining there was late last January about it being a bust of a winter. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 6 Look much improved from last night's 00z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 As I've been saying....this is going to happen. By far he best ensemble in quite some time. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 It's interesting to note even the shorter term stuff is trending colder. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 As I've been saying....this is going to happen. By far he best ensemble in quite some time. http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.pngThat looks fantastic! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 All it took for the GFS runs to get better was for it to catch onto the stronger Maritime Continent MJO wave, which it did today. All major models agree on that wave now. Combined with everything else this has a very high chance of success. The big picture has become pretty clear, but the details are always very hard to pin down of course. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Oh...don't tell me you have swallowed the man made global warming crap!Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists... I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past. You all see the irony in this, right? 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I think it was determined that the new GFS runs too cold at the 850mb level in the mid and long range... just something to keep in mind. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists... I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past. You all see the irony in this, right? It is hardly a crisis though. Our lives have never been less impacted by weather. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I find it quite interesting that the winter 1953-54 has been coming up as an analog for many weeks now and it might just play out very much like that winter. Awful December followed by a great January. We have also had a lot in common with 1936-37 since late October and that was another bad December great January winter. Another one following that path was 1979-80 and all three had warm neutral ENSO. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 9 Euro op not there yet. It'll come around. EPS might improve for all we know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists... I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past. You all see the irony in this, right? They have no way of proving the weather is any different now than if man wasn't even here. Nothing we are seeing is outside of the envelope of what has happened in the past. I know the younger generations have been brain washed into believing in AGW, and that is sad. Also....this climate is susceptible to major fluctuations that have much to do with solar cycles and other cyclical influences. Just last winter we had our most solidly wintry February since 1989. Before that you have to go back to ones like 1929 and 1923 to find as good or better for combination of snow and cold. 1 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Einsteinjr, I need to know if you are going to accept that mod position or not. Also, what should we do with these people?is your only form of communication sarcasm? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 9 Euro op not there yet. It'll come around. EPS might improve for all we know. I'll take it for now. Pretty solid. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 For what its worth, I believe in the "global warming stuff" but this is an obs discussion thread for December leading in January, not a place to argue about the impact or lack of by man made factors. Agreed. It's a topic that always seems to cause strife when discussed one way or another. I guess that goes for many topics though, especially in this sort of political climate. Let's see how the EPS is doing! Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 I'll take it for now. Pretty solid.No real cold air even close. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Black carbon isn't a good thing. Look it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 It is hardly a crisis though. Our lives have never been less impacted by weather. I have heard speculation the climate is only as favorable as present 5% of the time. Pretty much nowhere to go but downhill from here. That's what kills me about this whole debate. Sea levels rise 50 feet or more without man being a factor whatsoever and then everybody freaks out over a one inch rise in a century. Very short sighted. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 10 That is actually quite good. A lot of above normal heights in the high latitudes along the with GOA ridge. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 10 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 For what its worth, I believe in the "global warming stuff" but this is an obs discussion thread for December leading in January, not a place to argue about the impact or lack of by man made factors.Fair point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 EURO will come around soon. Canadian ensembles not quite on par with GEFS, but definitely improved. Yakima shows nice chunk of cold members. Friday night 00z runs or Saturday 12z is when the jaw dropping stuff begins. 6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes Happy New Year everyone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Day 10 No cold air. Too bad. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 Black carbon isn't a good thing. Look it up It's only essential for life. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 EURO will come around soon. Canadian ensembles not quite on par with GEFS, but definitely improved. Yakima shows nice chunk of cold members. Friday night 00z runs or Saturday 12z is when the jaw dropping stuff begins. 6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes Happy New Year everyone It's not like the ECMWF is bad. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 1, 2020 Report Share Posted January 1, 2020 What do we care.. at least the east coast is baking. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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