December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Blizzard777]

december2019precipwesternus.png

 

Oregon just seems to be immune to above average precipitation in winter nowadays. Luckily there is hope in the models.

You sure can see where the AR was otherwise we would be in the 50-60% range

[BLI snowman]

Pretty anemic rainfall so far this evening.

 

Hi-res models indicate it stays that way for us, unfortunately.

[Jesse]

Hi-res models indicate it stays that way for us, unfortunately.

Good orographic pattern.

[El_Nina]

It has definitely felt that way.

I thought the stat about PDX just having experienced their two driest back to back years on record was pretty interesting. Seemed to get quickly swept under the rug by the raininistas, unfortunately.

When I saw that stat I thought it felt right. The ground is refusing to get squishy this year. Drainage is also way lower than normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hi-res models indicate it stays that way for us, unfortunately.

 

How are you feeling about January?

[MossMan]

Pretty dry for your area. I bet you average 10” or more

Probably. We were shadowed for most of the AR event, otherwise we would have been close.

[Prairiedog]

while I wait patiently for hour 240 for the possibility of cold and snow, my clock is counting for when spring training starts for anyone interested. 

http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/#sthash.bYtKXK4N.dpbs

[Jesse]

Probably. We were shadowed for most of the AR event, otherwise we would have been close.

If it weren’t for all the long dry spells PDX might have had a wetter than normal year too.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Well, this December actually torched a little at KLMT. +4.8 degrees!

KTTD will finish +4.0 or higher so I will join you in the +4 Club!

[Jesse]

When I saw that stat I thought it felt right. The ground is refusing to get squishy this year. Drainage is also way lower than normal.

The state of many of the water loving trees in the area tells most of the story. Makes sense we are in the driest two year period since before WWII if you just look at the cedars and hemlocks.

[jakerepp]

while I wait patiently for hour 240 for the possibility of cold and snow, my clock is counting for when spring training starts for anyone interested.

http://www.springtrainingcountdown.com/#sthash.bYtKXK4N.dpbs

Booking our flights down tomorrow!

[Omegaraptor]

Showers moving through from the NW.

[ttt]

I think the thing that pushed me over the edge here in Bellingham is the push to do away with natural gas in homes by 2035...15 years away.  So, in an area that most can barely afford to live, they are going to have an eventual retrofit requirement on existing homes (10-20k), and will push everyone to a resource that costs at least twice as much to get heat from....Oh yeah, and we are trying to tear down all the dams so where are we going to get this newly required electricity?

 

Its going through city council right now.

Turns out liberals are the real authoritarians.

[El_Nina]

The state of many of the water loving trees in the area tells most of the story. Makes sense we are in the driest two year period since before WWII if you just look at the cedars and hemlocks.

Luckily they pick up a lot of moisture from drizzle

[Chewbacca Defense]

Seattle is doing something similar - but just for new construction...which I can kinda understand if you're thinking long-term sustainability. I would miss my gas stovetop though.

 

However, forcing people to retrofit their existing homes is ridiculous.

 

I get what they are doing, and I can’t really dispute it, but if the economics don’t work they shouldn’t do it.  I’ve had electric heat, I know how outrageous the cost is.  I would not be able to afford heating my current house with electric heat.

 

I think the new construction would go into effect in the next 3-5 years and they are trying to get the retrofit going by around 2035 or so....

 

If they had a way to charge 2 rates, a low rate for the furnace and water heater to keep it affordable, then the standard rate for everything else, maybe that would work.  You of course still have the retrofit cost, plus what about all the unused gas lines in the ground...

 

 

Up to 1.07” on the ‘ole rain gauge.  It got pretty stormy about an hour ago with very heavy rain and wind, but it has since settled down again.

[Jesse]

Luckily they pick up a lot of moisture from drizzle

 

Unluckily this makes zero sense given the context of what we were talking about.

[Jesse]

Turns out liberals are the real authoritarians.

 

Trump:

 

Hold my beer until 2032

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Hmmm.... Day 1 past 2 runs. Energy is a few notches to the south. If that were to continue the next 4-5 runs....

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Saturday morning trough continues to look cold. Very low snow levels. A TON of Mt Snow.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 big time mountain snows through Day 5

 

[Front Ranger]

I’ve legitimately watched dozens of these crosswind videos from Düsseldorf. Amazing stuff.

 

In flew into Dusseldorf on a much smaller plane last fall. Uneventful.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[El_Nina]

Unluckily this makes zero sense given the context of what we were talking about.

Warm front drizzle.

[Front Ranger]

0z is looking like 12z at days 5-6, except stronger block forming. 

 

I think this will be a nice run. I officially have unrealistic expectations.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lookin' good so far.

 

Trump talks authoritarian, but he is not.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Warm front drizzle.

 

We don't get that much here. My average rainfall here is about 80" and as you can see in my signature we've had some dry years. Even the trees up here are showing it a little. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6.5

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0z is looking like 12z at days 5-6, except stronger block forming. 

 

I think this will be a nice run. I officially have unrealistic expectations.

 

January 2002 redux?!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some of the ensembles have been pretty biting with that 8/9th trough. Looks like the operational is following.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[Slushy Inch]

Day 7

 

Blocking by the 7th is way better than in previous runs. Looking good.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7.5 first cold trough more backdoor than anything

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ridge too far East?! lol

[Winterdog]

Backdoor sucks

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9