December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Some really serious model improvement over the last few runs!   Hard to not be pleased by the much better ensemble tonight as well.

[MossMan]

A good snow setup with -7C anomalies and not much of a continental fetch to dry things out

Do you have a snow map handy from the 00z GFS?

[snow_wizard]

It'll cost at least $20K to move to ME or NH, and then if what you said about property tax there is true, in 6 years or so there goes another $20K. Something's gotta be done to cut carbon emissions, and residential heating is a big part of it. And New England has the highest heating costs outside of Alaska; don't think you'll get lower utility bills by moving there.

 

I do share your skepticism about tearing out dams; as bad as the dams are, hydro is carbon-free power.

 

Oh...don't tell me you have swallowed the man made global warming crap!

[snow_wizard]

I can only guess how much belly aching there was on here over the last two days.  I have known all along this was going to pan out.  The table is just too perfectly set this winter.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 Euro cut-off bias in full effect

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I can only guess how much belly aching there was on here over the last two days.  I have known all along this was going to pan out.  The table is just too perfectly set this winter.

 

Don't count  your chickens before they hatch1

[Winterdog]

Do you have a snow map handy from the 00z GFS?

The only one I have available goes to 240 hours and most of our snow is coming after that. Others have the snow maps that cover the entire run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The winter of 2009-10 was great in NE Oklahoma. Top 5 snowiest and about a -6F temp departure DJF. Coldest October on record too.

[Deweydog]

“January was amazing!”

 

-12/31/19

[Frontal Snowsquall]

At this time ten years ago I was in Bartlesville, OK and had just gotten married to my first wife a couple weeks before. There was snow on the ground and the next day would be cold with a 32/11 split.

 

I had two wives and 4 kids in the past decade. lol

10 years ago today I was still in college uncertain what my career path was going to be like. Had some ups and downs but it was all worth it and the decade ended well. Excited for what this next decade will bring!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Don't count  your chickens before they hatch1

I've been studiously avoiding either pessimism or optimism. The interesting stuff is still in deep clown range. OTOH, we usually do see accumulating snow in the lowlands at least once a winter, and I remember how much whining there was late last January about it being a bust of a winter.

[Cloud]

Day 6

 

 

 

Look much improved from last night's 00z. 

[snow_wizard]

As I've been saying....this is going to happen.  By far he best ensemble in quite some time.

 

[snow_wizard]

It's interesting to note even the shorter term stuff is trending colder.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

 

[MossMan]

As I've been saying....this is going to happen. By far he best ensemble in quite some time.

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

That looks fantastic!

[snow_wizard]

All it took for the GFS runs to get better was for it to catch onto the stronger Maritime Continent MJO wave, which it did today.  All major models agree on that wave now.  Combined with everything else this has a very high chance of success.  The big picture has become pretty clear, but the details are always very hard to pin down of course.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

Oh...don't tell me you have swallowed the man made global warming crap!

Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists...

 

I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past.  You all see the irony in this, right?

[TT-SEA]

I think it was determined that the new GFS runs too cold at the 850mb level in the mid and long range... just something to keep in mind.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists...

 

I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past.  You all see the irony in this, right?

 

It is hardly a crisis though. Our lives have never been less impacted by weather. 

[snow_wizard]

I find it quite interesting that the winter 1953-54 has been coming up as an analog for many weeks now and it might just play out very much like that winter.  Awful December followed by a great January.  We have also had a lot in common with 1936-37 since late October and that was another bad December great January winter.  Another one following that path was 1979-80 and all three had warm neutral ENSO.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9 Euro op not there yet. It'll come around. EPS might improve for all we know.

 

[snow_wizard]

Him/her and 97% of the world's scientists...

 

I'll believe NASA before randos on the internet who are constantly complaining about never seeing snow events like from the past.  You all see the irony in this, right?

 

They have no way of proving the weather is any different now than if man wasn't even here.  Nothing we are seeing is outside of the envelope of what has happened in the past.  I know the younger generations have been brain washed into believing in AGW, and that is sad. 

 

Also....this climate is susceptible to major fluctuations that have much to do with solar cycles and other cyclical influences.  Just last winter we had our most solidly wintry February since 1989.  Before that you have to go back to ones like 1929 and 1923 to find as good or better for combination of snow and cold.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Einsteinjr, I need to know if you are going to accept that mod position or not. Also, what should we do with these people?

is your only form of communication sarcasm?

[snow_wizard]

Day 9 Euro op not there yet. It'll come around. EPS might improve for all we know.

 

 

I'll take it for now.  Pretty solid.

[Requiem]

For what its worth, I believe in the "global warming stuff" but this is an obs discussion thread for December leading in January, not a place to argue about the impact or lack of by man made factors.

 

Agreed. It's a topic that always seems to cause strife when discussed one way or another. I guess that goes for many topics though, especially in this sort of political climate.

 

Let's see how the EPS is doing!

[TT-SEA]

I'll take it for now. Pretty solid.

No real cold air even close.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[Weiner Warrior]

Black carbon isn't a good thing. Look it up

[snow_wizard]

It is hardly a crisis though. Our lives have never been less impacted by weather. 

 

I have heard speculation the climate is only as favorable as present 5% of the time.  Pretty much nowhere to go but downhill from here.  That's what kills me about this whole debate.  Sea levels rise 50 feet or more without man being a factor whatsoever and then everybody freaks out over a one inch rise in a century.  Very short sighted.

[snow_wizard]

Day 10

 

 

That is actually quite good.  A lot of above normal heights in the high latitudes along the with GOA ridge.

[TT-SEA]

Day 10

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

For what its worth, I believe in the "global warming stuff" but this is an obs discussion thread for December leading in January, not a place to argue about the impact or lack of by man made factors.

Fair point. 

[Gradient Keeper]

EURO will come around soon. Canadian ensembles not quite on par with GEFS, but definitely improved. Yakima shows nice chunk of cold members. Friday night 00z runs or Saturday 12z is when the jaw dropping stuff begins.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes

 

Happy New Year everyone

[MossMan]

 

Day 10

 

No cold air. Too bad.

[snow_wizard]

Black carbon isn't a good thing. Look it up

 

It's only essential for life. 

[snow_wizard]

EURO will come around soon. Canadian ensembles not quite on par with GEFS, but definitely improved. Yakima shows nice chunk of cold members. Friday night 00z runs or Saturday 12z is when the jaw dropping stuff begins.

 

6z GFS in 2 hours 26 minutes

 

Happy New Year everyone

 

It's not like the ECMWF is bad.

[Winterdog]

What do we care.. at least the east coast is baking.