January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[westMJim]

As we wind down the last few days of January 2020 here is where Grand Rapids stands. The mean temperature is now at 31.1° if that were to hold this would become the 6^th warmest January of record. With no cold in the cards this will be a top 10 warmest January of record (records go back to 1892) The high for the month will be 49 and the low will be +11. For this winter season the coldest it has been so far is just +7 If that holds for the next 2 months the winter of 2019/20 will join the winters of 1920/21 and 1930/31 where it has not gotten any colder this +7. So far this month there have only been 6 days that stayed at 32 or colder. As for snow fall for the month 11.4” since December 1^st 25.7” and for the season 32.5”  We would have to have record snow falls in either February or March just to make it to average for this winter. If that were to happen the month I feel would have the best chance is March.

[james1976]

As others have mentioned, RIP Kobe Bryant, his daughter and the others that passed. I've been a Lakers fan my whole life and watched Kobe play his entire career. What a sad and shocking day.

 

@St Paul Storm, I was in your town all weekend. Still have a solid snowcover up there!

[Andie]

We've had a lot of fog this winter. This morning is no exception.

 

48*. Heavy fog. High of 51*.

[Beltrami Island]

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look where I ended up....at NOAA!

What the heck did you find?  Not sure what NOAA affilitation that office may be.  The NWS office is actually in Hermantown up by the airport, you can see the radar tower next to it driving past it on highway 53.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Regarding the snow around here in next couple of days.  Looks like my county is on the eastern edge of the band as it moves to the Southeast.  NWS Hastings is not to bullish on amounts.  I might score 1-2" if lucky, but I'd probably side lower towards an inch.  Looks more like a Southwest Nebraska into Kansas system.

[Hawkeye]

It's awesome that Pivotal now has snow and mid/upper air temp maps, et al.  

[Niko]

34F w cloudy skies.

[Hawkeye]

It's awesome that Pivotal now has snow and mid/upper air temp maps, et al.  

 

However, there's no guarantee Pivotal will be able to keep all this new stuff free.  It costs them $ to provide it.  There's a reason the pay sites (wxbell, weathermodels.com, etc) charge for all the good Euro maps.

[jaster220]

Stepped out this morning to a surprise 0.3" coating of snow. Just enough to brighten up what would otherwise have been a depressing commute after 4 days above freezing combined with 3/4" of rain has pretty much decimated the nice snow cover we had. Amazing how difficult it is any more to keep a blanket of snow for even one solid week! 

[St Paul Storm]

What the heck did you find?  Not sure what NOAA affilitation that office may be.  The NWS office is actually in Hermantown up by the airport, you can see the radar tower next to it driving past it on highway 53.

 

I have no idea what office that was. I looked up the NWS office address up there and it definitely was not the ‘official’ office. The office in this pic was in one of the harbors. Seemed more like a research facility than an actual office.

[Beltrami Island]

I have no idea what office that was. I looked up the NWS office address up there and it definitely was not the ‘official’ office. The office in this pic was in one of the harbors. Seemed more like a research facility than an actual office.

My curiosity got the best of me so I googled "NOAA research office duluth, mn".  The 3rd result links to a page with a logo alongside the noaa logo that looks to match the one on the right side of the building in your picture.  Definitely a research office.

 

https://seagrant.noaa.gov/Program-Locations/MN  

[Niko]

Cloudy w temps at 35F.

[Niko]

Stepped out this morning to a surprise 0.3" coating of snow. Just enough to brighten up what would otherwise have been a depressing commute after 4 days above freezing combined with 3/4" of rain has pretty much decimated the nice snow cover we had. Amazing how difficult it is any more to keep a blanket of snow for even one solid week! 

The great Winter of 2019-20

 

Its impossible this Winter.

[Plowguy-dupage county]

Interesting.. ill just leave this here.

[Niko]

35F w cloudy skies

[Stormhunter87]

Interesting read. https://www.zerohedge.com/health/future-us-weather-prediction-will-be-decided-during-next-month

[Tom]

Interesting read. https://www.zerohedge.com/health/future-us-weather-prediction-will-be-decided-during-next-month

#epic

 

I’d love to see EPIC become an individual center, outside from NOAA buracracy, to develope the best wx models in the world. It’s nice to hear this administration is taking huge steps in the right direction.

[jaster220]

The great Winter of 2019-20

 

Its impossible this Winter.

 

Truly remarkable isn't it. Exact same thing that happened back in 2011-12 which was billed as "worst winter in history" level nasty. Guess what? PV got super strong and a raging PAC Jet hosed NAMER with warm air and little storminess. Sound familiar? At least that time it was a little easier to doubt, since we JUST had 4 awesome winters in a row, and the odds that a 5th (and even worse??) snowy winter would happen were beyond astronomical. After these last 2 have been so-so around here I was willing to give it at least a chance this winter..

[jaster220]

A little late on this from the WPC yesterday..

 

[Niko]

A little late on this from the WPC yesterday..

 

2020126 WPC 42nd Anniv Twitter post.JPG

WOW..how awesome was that amigo! We can only dream to get another one of these storms here again (god forbid we do this Winter) <_>

[Niko]

Truly remarkable isn't it. Exact same thing that happened back in 2011-12 which was billed as "worst winter in history" level nasty. Guess what? PV got super strong and a raging PAC Jet hosed NAMER with warm air and little storminess. Sound familiar? At least that time it was a little easier to doubt, since we JUST had 4 awesome winters in a row, and the odds that a 5th (and even worse??) snowy winter would happen were beyond astronomical. After these last 2 have been so-so around here I was willing to give it at least a chance this winter..

Its pathetic I tell ya. The only saving grace from this Winter to Winter of 2011-12 was that this Winter season, surprisingly, more snow has fallen, but not by much at all. In fact, we are still running BN snowfall for the season and way AN tempwise.

[jaster220]

Its pathetic I tell ya. The only saving grace from this Winter to Winter of 2011-12 was that this Winter season, surprisingly, more snow has fallen, but not by much at all. In fact, we are still running BN snowfall for the season and way AN tempwise.

 

I don't have daily data for 11-12 (I started that in 13-14) so I can't compare season-to-date. I just measured and added it all up for a seasonal total. As I posted before, I currently have a looong way to go to catch 11-12 for here. Pretty sad if we indeed are looking at least snowy winter since the 97-98 super nino.

[jaster220]

After getting down to 32F overnight, we've been above freezing the last 12 hrs (high of 35F). Snow cover now consists of "snow cone" ingredients. 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

This map shows 4+ inch depth all through Chicagoland. Is that what you have/see around town there? Just wondering how accurate this is.

 

[Niko]

I don't have daily data for 11-12 (I started that in 13-14) so I can't compare season-to-date. I just measured and added it all up for a seasonal total. As I posted before, I currently have a looong way to go to catch 11-12 for here. Pretty sad if we indeed are looking at least snowy winter since the 97-98 super nino.

I remember that Winter as if it was yesterday. That Winter season, NYC only received 4 to 5 inches all season.

[Niko]

Attm, it is a balmy 35F under cloudy skies. Keep in mind, the norm is 29F for high temp. AN temps continue, in fact, it gets warmer early next week w temps approaching the mid to upper 40s w sunshine. Yikes. By that time, it will be early Feb.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

This map shows 4+ inch depth all through Chicagoland. Is that what you have/see around town there? Just wondering how accurate this is.

 

20200127_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

Not at all.  I currently have about 2" OTG with some grassy patches showing up where there was drifting from the 1st storm we had about 2.5 weeks ago on the 17th.  In fact, to my surprise, when I drove my Mom to the airport a few days ago, there is nothing but grass.  Prob explains why they reported 1.5" less than my backyard for the 17th-18th storm.  I was lucky enough from place on north to get under those initial first bands that snowed pretty hard for a while before the entire area filled up with radar returns.  I think the snow that I have OTG will last through Fri, but the weekend is looking warm and that might put an end to it.

[Clinton]

Getting some frz drizzle this morning that wasn't in the forecast, things are a little slick..  The Hi-Res models and Ukmet show around an inch to inch and a half of snow tonight so at least a little winter weather before the weekend torch.

[Beltrami Island]

@ Tom

 

This map shows 4+ inch depth all through Chicagoland. Is that what you have/see around town there? Just wondering how accurate this is.

 

20200127_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

Not at all.  I currently have about 2" OTG with some grassy patches showing up where there was drifting from the 1st storm we had about 2.5 weeks ago on the 17th.  In fact, to my surprise, when I drove my Mom to the airport a few days ago, there is nothing but grass.  Prob explains why they reported 1.5" less than my backyard for the 17th-18th storm.  I was lucky enough from place on north to get under those initial first bands that snowed pretty hard for a while before the entire area filled up with radar returns.  I think the snow that I have OTG will last through Fri, but the weekend is looking warm and that might put an end to it.

 

I have found that these maps are pretty terrible for snow depth accuracy, especially if there is any melting occurring, it underestimates melting pretty horrible.  It is useful to tell where fresh snowfall was heaviest, but needs to be correlated with actual reported measurements on the ground.

I think the system was designed for tracking snowpack and water content in the mountain west for hydrology purposes and for that it works pretty well I would guess.  But I think the relatively small snowfalls for most of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS isn't really in the designed range of the system, hence the poor accuracy.   

[Stacsh]

I read today we've been between 32 and 36 degrees for over 96 straight hours... Perpetual blahness with clouds.  

[Thunder98]

January has been very warm for much of the Northern Hemisphere. 

 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Inland penetration of the north pacific upper jet late this week
will initiate a more progressive and potentially energetic northern
stream flow late in the forecast period. Shortwave energy anchored
within the exit region of the inbound jet axis will arrive across
the great lakes within the Friday night and Saturday window. This
period does bear watching, as the underlying pattern could allow for
a more dynamic mid level response as these height falls potentially
engage favorable upper jet and frontal positioning. A more
meaningful clipper system would subsequently offer a period of
accumulating snow during this time. Temperatures will continue to
reside on the warmer side of average through next weekend.

[Niko]

Attm, 34F under cloudy skies.

[Andie]

We got some nice rain last night, maybe a return this afternoon late.

 

Our week will be in the 50's and low 60's. Lows high 30's.

Sunday will see 71 freakin' degrees.

 

I know it's winter somewhere, but here, it's more like spring.

Flowers blooming and some tree buds swelling.

 

I mean, it would be nice to have a little winter, yes?

[Niko]

Some light wet snow attm w temps at 34F.

[Clinton]

Light snow falling here, wasn't set to begin until midnight.

[jaster220]

I have found that these maps are pretty terrible for snow depth accuracy, especially if there is any melting occurring, it underestimates melting pretty horrible.  It is useful to tell where fresh snowfall was heaviest, but needs to be correlated with actual reported measurements on the ground.

I think the system was designed for tracking snowpack and water content in the mountain west for hydrology purposes and for that it works pretty well I would guess.  But I think the relatively small snowfalls for most of the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS isn't really in the designed range of the system, hence the poor accuracy.   

 

Perhaps true wrt original purpose, however I have been using it for years here and it's been quite accurate even when I'm borderline say between 2-4" and 4-10" depth. But knowing Chicagoland got shafted by the ULL system, It seemed a bit off for that region. I do think that if this tool is going to have a problem with accuracy it would indeed be in a major city where there is so much uneven coverage between all the plowed pavement plus melted-off roof tops interspersed with plow banks along streets and piles around parking lots and businesses. That's going to look strange from a satellite's perspective. 

 

The 2-4" range it shows around here is accurate. Lower end in open areas where strong winds caused depth to be shallow, and the higher end where accum's ended up most even. 

[jaster220]

Light snow falling here, wasn't set to begin until midnight.

 

Storm looks pretty sweet per radar. Good Luck down there. Would be nice if OKwx could score a hit too?

 

 

Interestingly, exactly 3 months ago:

 

 

 

3 months from Vet's Day is coming up...

[Hawkeye]

Terry Swails has a blog post about the 1967 late January tornadoes and blizzard.

 

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2020/01/28/GOAT-THE-GREATEST-48-HRS-OF-WEATHER-ALL-TIME

[Niko]

Light snow falling here, wasn't set to begin until midnight.

Good luck buddy. Hope ya score some white gold.