TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Wednesday afternoon... main band has spun inland. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Thursday morning... **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Still quite a bit of snow though. Hope this is the last of the gutting situation-- interestingly EURO seems to have intensified easterly flow. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Cold onshore flow by hour 162... I'd rather see the GFS solution verify. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 How do you figure? Looks like a fairly similar setup as other Arctic Front/CZ's we've seen recently (11/27/06, 1/10/07, 12/18/08, 11/22/10, etc.) I can't remember a single time when an incoming arctic blast set off a CZ around or South of Seattle without giving snow to Skagit or Snohomish County first and I remember many times when it took longer to slip South than modeled. No guarantee that will be the case this time, but I'm just interested in your rationale. The ECMWF has historically been pretty terrible in modeling precipitation in Arctic events here, tends to overdue how quickly things dry out and doesn't pick on the small scale features that give us most of our snow in transitions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Thursday 4PM, just showery stuff. It's a decent snowfall for PDX but nowhere near previous runs. Just much less precip. Hopefully it does't continue to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The ECMWF has historically been pretty terrible in modeling precipitation in Arctic events here, tends to overdue how quickly things dry out and doesn't pick on the small scale features that give us most of our snow in transitions.I just checked and all of our most recent Arctic fronts that the previous poster mentioned yielded 10+ cm. Really good signs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Total snow from 10AM Sunday-10AM Monday... Certainly better for the central Puget Sound than the 12z and 18z. Massive improvements for central sound Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Additional runs ahead! 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Good lord 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 How do you figure? Looks like a fairly similar setup as other Arctic Front/CZ's we've seen recently (11/27/06, 1/10/07, 12/18/08, 11/22/10, etc.) I can't remember a single time when an incoming arctic blast set off a CZ around or South of Seattle without giving snow to Skagit or Snohomish County first and I remember many times when it took longer to slip South than modeled. No guarantee that will be the case this time, but I'm just interested in your rationale. Because of the strong low racing inland and the roaring onshore flow behind it which pounds the Cascades. Its pulling down arctic air... so you can call it an arctic front. But 11/27/06 is a great example of a true arctic front. The low that came through the day before is very much like what is shown for Sunday in the foothills and Cascades Then the arctic front followed the next day and there was very little snow out here and lots of snow closer to the Sound. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Weirdly our night model runs seem to be far more disappointing than our day runs. Just a little observation from the past few weeks. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Jesus hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 And the 12z Euro will look totally different precip wise. Too early to tell yet. 2 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 There’s no way we see that much snow in southerly flow lol. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 925 and 850 winds are now S,SW tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Cold onshore flow by hour 162... I'd rather see the GFS solution verify. Yeah the GFS and Euro are really different there. GFS really wants to keep that Columbia Basin cold pool in place for as long as possible while Euro wants to make it a quick hitter and done. Phil said this earlier: "I do think the trends toward -EPO/additional amplification over the NE-Pacific are real..I’m definitely against the zonal/blah solutions in the longer range." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 And the 12z Euro will look totally different precip wise. Too early to tell yet. I hope the timing is a little different at least. I want to watch the game. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Hello Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The ECMWF has historically been pretty terrible in modeling precipitation in Arctic events here, tends to overdue how quickly things dry out and doesn't pick on the small scale features that give us most of our snow in transitions.Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Because of the strong low racing inland and the roaring onshore flow behind it which pounds the Cascades. Its pulling down arctic air... so you can call it an arctic front. But 11/27/06 is a great example of a true arctic front. The low that came through the day before is very much like what is shown for Sunday in the foothills and Cascades Then the arctic front followed the next day and there was very little snow out here and lots of snow closer to the Sound. Ahhh...November 2006...Nearly 18” of very wet heavy snow that started the day before the Arctic front moved through at Lake Goodwin...Still my #1 event in my lifetime! Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Another low spins up on Friday afternoon... The first low actually does move inland an up into BC and then another low comes in. That is very different than a stagnant low spinning the same place. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 00z and 12z snow maps look similar by late Friday despite differences with that low. This includes the transition event at the end of the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Tim is in a mood today... hi tier form! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 This about as good a CZ signature as you'll ever see across the Central Sound. Important not to get caught up in details because the models can never nail down the exact strength and location of these in this setup. The fact it's even shown this clearly is what matters. 4PM Friday-10PM Friday. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Ahhh...November 2006...Nearly 18” of very wet heavy snow that started the day before the Arctic front moved through at Lake Goodwin...Still my #1 event in my lifetime! I remember it was snowing here on Sunday morning and calm... and then the wind just roared in during the afternoon and all the snow melted and it was raining. Then the snow came back and just dumped on us that evening. I think the path was south of this projected path of this low... you must have been on the north side of the track and stayed all snow. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Ahhh...November 2006...Nearly 18” of very wet heavy snow that started the day before the Arctic front moved through at Lake Goodwin...Still my #1 event in my lifetime! It's been awhile, I'd say we're due for a repeat. That was a very dynamic event, short but sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Another low spins up on Friday afternoon... The first low actually does move inland an up into BC and then another low comes in. That is very different than a stagnant low spinning the same place. This is super critical and we'll have to see how it trends. If it does show signs of making it inland, then there'll obviously be more snow for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Lol zero chance that verifies here. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Weirdly our night model runs seem to be far more disappointing than our day runs. Just a little observation from the past few weeks. I dont see why your disappointed. With your elevation you would do great with gfs and euro. I think you will be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 This about as good a CZ signature as you'll ever see across the Central Sound. Important not to get caught up in details because the models can never nail down the exact strength and location of these in this setup. The fact it's even shown this clearly is what matters. 4PM Friday-10PM Friday. qpf_006h.us_nw.png Absolutely a c-zone. Even if there was no cold air with this system... that is right where the c-zone would be behind this low. And it would just be dumping rain along the I-90 corridor... except this time it will be snow. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I dont see why your disappointed. With your elevation you would do great with gfs and euro. I think you will be fine. I'm personally not disappointed, but I know others have been in comparison with model runs. IMO the runs tonight were fine, and we won't know exacts until later. A strong low with offshore flow is a recipe for at least some snow. 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 I'm personally not disappointed, but I know others have been in comparison with model runs. IMO the runs tonight were fine, and we won't know exacts until later. A strong low with offshore flow is a recipe for at least some snow.Nice try, go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 00Z ECMWF is getting a little phallic on us tonight. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Nice try, go to bed. Maybe later. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 The 0z ECMWF shows a massive North Sound snowstorm next Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Quite ridiculous west-east and north-south gradient for snow fall across PDX on the GFS. 3 vs 8-10 inches. Must be some real impressive outflow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 10, 2020 Report Share Posted January 10, 2020 Holy crap. 32 inches here by the end of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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