Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[MossMan]

I remember it was snowing here on Sunday morning and calm... and then the wind just roared in during the afternoon and all the snow melted and it was raining. Then the snow came back and just dumped on us that evening.

 

I think the path was south of this projected path of this low... you must have been on the north side of the track and stayed all snow.

Yeah I was down in Olympia that Sunday, it was upper 40’s and raining. Nothing special was forecasted in my area so I wasn’t thinking too much about it until my dad called me when I was leaving Olympia around 2pm and said it started snowing around 9am and by noon the power was already out with such heavy snow falling. Took me nearly an hour that evening to get from Smokey Point to Lake Goodwin, each route I tried to take was blocked by downed trees and nearly a foot of snow on the roads...It was insane. Never really stopped until the following evening then the Arctic front finally passed through. That was something else!

[TT-SEA]

The 0z ECMWF shows a massive North Sound snowstorm next Saturday.

 

 

That is a new feature.

 

The Wed-Sat period is just so different on the ECMWF compared to the GFS... and so much more dynamic.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

Yeah the GFS and Euro are really different there. GFS really wants to keep that Columbia Basin cold pool in place for as long as possible while Euro wants to make it a quick hitter and done. Phil said this earlier:

 

"I do think the trends toward -EPO/additional amplification over the NE-Pacific are real..I’m definitely against the zonal/blah solutions in the longer range."

 

 

I would love to see sustained cold

[Skagit Weather]

The 0z ECMWF shows a massive North Sound snowstorm next Saturday.

 

Yeah, that's a lot of snow in Bellingham 

 

[snow_wizard]

I'm almost stunned right now.  Pretty much all of us are going to get decent snowfall and quite cold in January!  Really good model runs tonight.

[HighlandExperience]

Another snow event next Friday.

 

Really liking this better than the GFS

[GHweatherChris]

Another snow event next Friday.

 

I wouldn't consider that an event.

[bainbridgekid]

I remember it was snowing here on Sunday morning and calm... and then the wind just roared in during the afternoon and all the snow melted and it was raining.   Then the snow came back and just dumped on us that evening. 

 

I think the path was south of this projected path of this low... you must have been on the north side of the track and stayed all snow.  

I believe that low tracked between Seattle and Everett.

 

On Bainbridge we got a wet inch or two early that Sunday morning, had it warm up into the mid-upper 30's around Noon, and then turned back to snow in the afternoon. 

 

SEA spiked into the low 40's for a couple hours around Noon but was back down to freezing by 4 PM. Everett never got above 36 and it was all snow North of about Marysville.

[TT-SEA]

Second ECMWF run in a row to lift the cold air to the north for a day and then bring it right back down into us the next day.

 

[Requiem]

I'm almost stunned right now.  Pretty much all of us are going to get decent snowfall and quite cold in January!  Really good model runs tonight.

 

Hmm...hopefully!

[HighlandExperience]

I'm almost stunned right now. Pretty much all of us are going to get decent snowfall and quite cold in January! Really good model runs tonight.

I wonder if this might turn out better than last Feb

[TT-SEA]

Really liking this better than the GFS

 

 

Just sooooooo much more dynamic on the ECMWF.

[GHweatherChris]

I would love to see sustained snow!

[MossMan]

Yeah, that's a lot of snow in Bellingham

 

whoa.png

Need that to trend south by a few more miles!

[snow_wizard]

Big improvement on the ECMWF late next week.  you can even see improvement in the strength of the block while the really cold pattern is still in place.  I'm smelling an extension to the fun and games.

[MossMan]

Perhaps a Dec 2008 type duration in the works!

[TT-SEA]

Big improvement on the ECMWF late next week.  you can even see improvement in the strength of the block while the really cold pattern is still in place.  I'm smelling an extension to the fun and games.

 

 

Yeah... ECMWF has me thinking that as well.     Its been bouncing all over the place though.

 

The EPS has been consistent in a fairly quick end and disagrees with the operational run.   But who knows... this is a very complex pattern.

[Cloud]

I wonder if this might turn out better than last Feb

It's probably more favorable for a more uniform snow spread. 

[snow_wizard]

And the Euro ends on a fabulous note!  Yee haw!!!

[TT-SEA]

I need to catch up on sleep.    I am running a sleep deficit and it looks like its going to get worse!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I think I am done for the day... I need to catch up on sleep.    I am running a sleep deficit and its going to get worse!

Gettin old!!!

[bainbridgekid]

Because of the strong low racing inland and the roaring onshore flow behind it which pounds the Cascades.

 

Its pulling down arctic air... so you can call it an arctic front.   But 11/27/06 is a great example of a true arctic front.   The low that came through the day before is very much like what is shown for Sunday in the foothills and Cascades   Then the arctic front followed the next day and there was very little snow out here and lots of snow closer to the Sound.

That's exactly my point though.

 

That was a much more extreme version of what I am referring to with the arctic front getting hung up longer than modeled and giving heavier snow than expected. Same thing happened on 12/18/08. The front was supposed to move through and leave Seattle dry by late on the night of the 17th, but it ended up getting hung up for 8-10 hours longer than expected and giving them snow well into the morning of the 18th.

 

Those are both more extreme examples than what I would expect Sunday, but even a slight delay in the front moving South would make a big difference to extending the snow opportunities.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I need to catch up on sleep.    I am running a sleep deficit and it looks like its going to get worse!

Last February was horrible for me. Felt like I didn't sleep for 2 weeks.

[snow_wizard]

I've been talking a lot about 1936-37.  It looks like we might see at least some similarity if this new trend toward keeping it cold longer is for real.

[MikeInEverett]

At work can’t check the euro.. is that snowstorm for the north sound next weekend an overrunning event or does that bring in more cold air with it?

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah, that's a lot of snow in Bellingham 

 

It has 25" in 24 hours for Victoria, that would be insane.

[snow_wizard]

That's exactly my point though.

 

That was a much more extreme version of what I am referring to with the arctic front getting hung up longer than modeled and giving heavier snow than expected. Same thing happened on 12/18/08. The front was supposed to move through and leave Seattle dry by late on the night of the 17th, but it ended up getting hung up for 8-10 hours longer than expected and giving them snow well into the morning of the 18th.

 

Those are both more extreme examples than what I would expect Sunday, but even a slight delay in the front moving South would make a big difference to extending the snow opportunities.

 

Backwash will set us free!

[OysterPrintout]

00z GFS really ran out of members that skunk us and upped the average 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I'm almost stunned right now. Pretty much all of us are going to get decent snowfall and quite cold in January! Really good model runs tonight.

Yeah, will probably end up being the biggest regional snow event since December 2008.

[Cloud]

I need to catch up on sleep.    I am running a sleep deficit and it looks like its going to get worse!

Yeah me too. I've been staying up for the 06z runs for the past few weeks and it's wearing on me. Now that cold seems to be a lock, focusing on the details where snow will for for each individual isn't worth it at the moment. I'll probably get back on it again this weekend. 

[snow_wizard]

At work can’t check the euro.. is that snowstorm for the north sound next weekend an overrunning event or does that bring in more cold air with it?

 

More cold!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[GHweatherChris]

I need to catch up on sleep. I am running a sleep deficit and it looks like its going to get worse!

Why? No way its the weather coming up...

[HighlandExperience]

Big improvement on the ECMWF late next week. you can even see improvement in the strength of the block while the really cold pattern is still in place. I'm smelling an extension to the fun and games.

Really great potential

[TT-SEA]

That's exactly my point though.

 

That was a much more extreme version of what I am referring to with the arctic front getting hung up longer than modeled and giving heavier snow than expected. Same thing happened on 12/18/08. The front was supposed to move through and leave Seattle dry by late on the night of the 17th, but it ended up getting hung up for 8-10 hours longer than expected and giving them snow well into the morning of the 18th.

 

Those are both more extreme examples than what I would expect Sunday, but even a slight delay in the front moving South would make a big difference to extending the snow opportunities.

 

11/26/06 was the low.   That is what I envision for this Sunday... or something like that.

 

11/27/06 was the arctic front.

 

That c-zone on 11/26 that dumped snow on my area would have happened even if the arctic front never made it here.   I consider them separate events.

 

11/27 was the arctic front and that pounded Seattle and Issaquah while we got almost nothing.    That front could have done exactly the same thing without the low and c-zone the day before... assuming it had a push from the north.

[Cloud]

At work can’t check the euro.. is that snowstorm for the north sound next weekend an overrunning event or does that bring in more cold air with it?

Looks to be more cold. It lifted for a little bit then drop back down again. 

interesting times ahead for sure. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

00z GFS really ran out of members that skunk us and upped the average 

 

Is EUG as ghastly as I imagine?

[snow_wizard]

850s bottom out at -16 over SEA on the ECMWF and the GFS ensemble!  I am thrilled by day 10 on the ECMWF.  850s back down to -10.  The vodka cold is still in place over southern BC so it quickly moves back over us.

[Deweydog]

I need to catch up on sleep. I am running a sleep deficit and it looks like its going to get worse!

Have you tried meth?

[OysterPrintout]

Is EUG as ghastly as I imagine?

 

unplug the bathroom toaster