Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS 10-15 day mean... 

 

 

 

 

But right at day 15... the cold signal becomes stronger to our east.  

 

[TT-SEA]

As Fred pointed out... looks like its going to be epic cold soon.

 

Ignore my posts about the ECMWF, EPS, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean. Those are not meaningful models and I am struggling to find a single map that does not show epic cold and snow. But I am posting the only troll maps I can find. Like the GFS and ECMWF snowfall maps for the one period that lowland snow is possible.

 

The people over-hyping cold have a much better handle on the situation. I am just messing with everyone as usual.

[BLI snowman]

It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well. 

 

1980-81.

[umadbro]

Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter.

Waiting until next winter is the most realistic option now.

[umadbro]

It is becoming comical what a dud this winter is. Oh well.

But low solar!!!

[BLI snowman]

The real story is that the Friday/Saturday period has some potential for serious warmth. Thinking some 60s from SEA south and definitely some 50+ lows as well. 

[TT-SEA]

I love how analysis has to always be one-sided or the forum moderator jumps all over you.   

 

So I am only supposed to post the EPS maps that show retrogression like I did the last 2 days... but not post the run this morning because it does not feed the fantasy as much?     Really stupid.  

[Jesse]

The real story is that the Friday/Saturday period has some potential for serious warmth. Thinking some 60s from SEA south and definitely some 50+ lows as well.

 

Yeah. I was thinking that the AR getting aimed so far north could give a little time for some inversiony east winds to develop and save the Portland area from anything too crazy. But there is potential for it to get ridiculous elsewhere.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah. I was thinking that the AR getting aimed so far north could give a little time for some inversiony east winds to develop and save the Portland area from anything too crazy. But there is potential for it to get ridiculous elsewhere.

 

 

Don't see much of a mechanism for SE winds to persist with this go around. The southerlies should break through sometime on Thursday or Friday and be really warm once they do. 

[TT-SEA]

Don't see much of a mechanism for SE winds to persist with this go around. The southerlies should break through sometime on Thursday or Friday and be really warm once they do. 

 

Not that warm...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not that warm...

 

 

That is near record warmth PDX-south.

[BLI snowman]

Not that warm...

 

 

 

Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that.

 

60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday.

[TT-SEA]

Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that.

 

60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday.

 

Troll.  

 

Going to be much colder.   

[Jesse]

Uh, yeah, try adding about 5 degrees to that.

 

60 degrees in Seattle and 65 in Eugene is record territory for this time of year. Toss in some extra warm lows and you're talking a probable +15 departure day at least on Friday.

Yeah. That map shows some serious warmth.

[BLI snowman]

Troll.  

 

Going to be much colder.   

 

Sure, Tim. Looks promising for some chilly temps that day.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah. That map shows some serious warmth.

 

The 108 hour weather maps are also renowned for their warm bias. Particularly in warm sector scenarios with screaming baroclinic bands.

[Jesse]

The 108 hour weather maps are also renowned for their warm bias. Particularly in warm sector scenarios with screaming baroclinic bands.

Late January’s answer to 10/21/03?

[TT-SEA]

Sure, Tim. Looks promising for some chilly temps that day.

 

Take it up with Fred.

 

I mentioned that the GEM trended warmer for next week and sometimes that is an indication of how the other models will trend.... and then the ECMWF followed suit.   But I was just trolling and feeling invincible.     

 

Friday will be quite chilly.   That is my official prediction.

[BLI snowman]

Late January’s answer to 10/21/03?

 

Sans the goodies a week later.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1980-81.

 

The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse.

[BLI snowman]

Take it up with Fred.

 

I mentioned that the GEM trended warmer for next week and sometimes that is an indication of how the other models will trend.... and then the ECMWF followed suit.   But I was just trolling and feeling invincible.     

 

Your issue as always is more with your delivery method than with the potential validity of what you're saying. Your manic and obnoxiously repetitive posting style effectively negates the accuracy of what you're saying. You're sort of like the anti-salesman. 

 

That and the fact that we're currently talking about two different things, since Friday's baroclinic shitshow is now well established and technically has no bearing on the plateful of crap that we're likely to be served later on.

[BLI snowman]

The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse.

 

The climate called and just asked you to hold its beer.

[MossMan]

As Fred pointed out... looks like its going to be epic cold soon.

 

Ignore my posts about the ECMWF, EPS, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean. Those are not meaningful models and I am struggling to find a single map that does not show epic cold and snow. But I am posting the only troll maps I can find. Like the GFS and ECMWF snowfall maps for the one period that lowland snow is possible.

 

The people over-hyping cold have a much better handle on the situation. I am just messing with everyone as usual.

Yay! Can’t wait, thanks Tim!!

[Timmy Supercell]

The silver lining is it is probably not possible for next winter to be worse.

 

Yeah it's impossible to get -1 inch at PDX 

[TT-SEA]

Your issue as always is more with your delivery method than with the potential validity of what you're saying. Your manic and obnoxiously repetitive posting style basically negates the accuracy part behind what you're saying. You're sort of like the anti-salesman. 

 

That and the fact that we're currently talking about two different things, since Friday's baroclinic shitshow technically has no bearing on the plateful of crap that we're likely to be served later on.

 

I have been posting as objectively as I can and have scaled back the number of posts... and made numerous posts about the potential for snow on Sunday and long range retrogression.     

 

We have been through all this crap before.    I listened... and I am taking a different approach.   

[Timmy Supercell]

Some weather is approaching!!

 

[TT-SEA]

It is if you remember the Euro's surface temp cold bias and add the +3 degrees you mentioned during the last event.

 

Or does that bias only occur when it's showing cold temperatures?! 

 

 

Good Lord.    I did not even post that map when I saw it and made no mention of the warmth those days.  I just posted it because Justin was talking about it.     The rest of what I said is a sarcastic response to Fred.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The climate called and just asked you to hold its beer.

 

After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close. 

[Requiem]

After the last 3 winters it was probably inevitable we would see this level of dud. In fact it was essentially what I predicted. In the back of my mind however, I was hoping we paid our dues last December and January. It happens. Would you rate this one worse than 2014-15 and 2002-03 if it plays out at this pace? It would have to be close.

Personally I think it’s far worse down here than 2014-2015. That winter had a decent strong East wind/cold snap at PDX in November, and several great windstorms.

[MossMan]

So glad I live where I do! (Except for 2016/17)

[TT-SEA]

Good Lord... Touchy today, are we?

 

It was just a clarification question. I wanted to make sure I had the Euro's well-documented biases correct and how they apply in certain scenarios. Figured I would go straight to the source.

Whatever.

[Timmy Supercell]

I liked the wind and rain events that continuously battered the PNW in '14-'15. I haven't had a >65 gust since that season, not counting t'storm winds.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Personally I think it’s far worse down here than 2014-2015. That winter had a decent strong East wind/cold snap at PDX in November, and several great windstorms.

 

I am starting to lean that way. November 2014 was a big event. I do not care about wind evens, but the November event was better than the November chilly snap this year, and the cool episode around New Year's was cooler than anything we have had in December/January this year. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Given the last couple Februaries though I will refrain from sticking a fork in winter just yet. 

[Timmy]

Two strange takeaways from this morning. The EPS isn’t consistent and Jim is gone! Our inevitable arctic blast must be in jeopardy?!?!

[Omegaraptor]

The word to describe this winter in the western Portland metro is most certainly “boring”. No windstorms, no heavy rain, no cold, no snow besides a tiny amount of snow on 11/30 that didn’t stick.

[BLI snowman]

I have been posting as objectively as I can and have scaled back the number of posts... and made numerous posts about the potential for snow on Sunday and long range retrogression.     

 

We have been through all this crap before.    I listened... and I am taking a different approach.   

 

Hmm... interesting.

 

I do desire a little more clarification on whether or not the weather has been quite whet lately before I inform my opinion there.

[Timmy Supercell]

From a regional perspective we should use another winter as an anal-log. Maybe 2002-2003? One of the winters that didn't snow at PDX but was decent for the mountains.

[MossMan]

Two strange takeaways from this morning. The EPS isn’t consistent and Jim is gone! Our inevitable arctic blast must be in jeopardy?!?!

And Matt has completely disappeared...Perhaps he was DomeBuster Josh all along...