Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[bainbridgekid]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is much warmer for next week as well compared to its 00Z run.

 

Sometimes that is an indication of which way the other models will trend.

GEM also much further South with the firehose Friday/Saturday. Would be major flooding in WA, but it's a big outlier on that.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS ensemble mean for the 11-16 day period... significant shift east with the center of the cold air compared to the 00Z run.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS ensembles continue to look good.

 

Do they?

[TT-SEA]

GEM also much further South with the firehose Friday/Saturday. Would be major flooding in WA, but it's a big outlier on that.

 

 

The GEM really does struggle with the placement of AR events.    Hoping the GFS is leading the way... its been very consistent with the focus being in SW BC.

[TT-SEA]

Do they?

 

 

Good probably just means generally wet.

[Jesse]

Do they?

No earth shattering changes from previous runs, which have all been decent. Long range seems to be trending cooler overall.

[High Desert Mat?]

12Z GFS ensemble mean for the 11-16 day period... significant shift east with the center of the cold air compared to the 00Z run.

 

I hope we have a soggy and wet spring. We are due for that at least. Damp, chilly, and drizzly weather through about June 4th is looking pretty likely.

[OysterPrintout]

Conflicting reports!

[OysterPrintout]

Well if there's one thing I know for sure it's that the wildly varying GFS ensembles for the 11-16 day period have finally nailed down the solution.

[TT-SEA]

Well if there's one thing I know for sure it's that the wildly varying GFS ensembles for the 11-16 day period have finally nailed down the solution.

Just looking at trends... since we have possible retrogression in 2 weeks per the EPS.

[Jesse]

Looks like the PDX radar may have just gone down.

[TT-SEA]

Just a touch of snow on top of Mt Si this morning...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Just looking at trends... since we have possible retrogression in 2 weeks per the EPS.

I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunniest weather I’ve seen in awhile.

[MossMan]

Still gray as can be up here.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.

Again... it did better with the big picture than the ECMWF last time and much farther out. It was just bad on the details.

[Jesse]

Still gray as can be up here.

Price you pay for all your snow.

[bainbridgekid]

I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.

It nailed the overall pattern from well over a week out. The details just ended up screwing everyone South of Seattle.

[TT-SEA]

I hope we have a soggy and wet spring. We are due for that at least. Damp, chilly, and drizzly weather through about June 4th is looking pretty likely.

 

 

You mean July 4th.  

[Cloud]

I don’t trust the gfs anymore especially after 5 days lol.

Depends on what you're really looking for here on how trustworthy the GFS is. In an overall pattern change or sustain, the GFS is very good. In terms of details like how temperatures and precipitation will play out, it's still very behind the Euro. 

 

You don't look for a lot of details beyond 5 days anyway. 

[Jesse]

I’m still not buying into cold stuff for this weekend. With less than a week left, seems like typical run of the mill chilly weather that’s capable of producing 500’ snow levels. Longer than that, it’s questionable at best since there has not been any consistency at all, even the EPS.

Not buying the hype anyone is trying to sell.

[HighlandExperience]

Feels like May outside

[kokaneekidz]

I ended up with around 36” of total snowfall for last February/March. Started February 3rd and ended March 12th. Solid snow cover from February 3rd until March 16th.

This year I’m at 12” so far.

You have some catching up to do eh? February is looking to be another wonderful bounty. A little SUPER BOWL SNOW BOWL will get us started toward the goal of exceeding the 36" 2019 season total. .

 

I am really liking the trajectory of it will stiff northwesterlies at 850mB that shall provide for a lovely double CZ zone with you taking part in the Georgia straight effect and Everett - Shoreline eastward taking part in the PSCZ. // CHeers@!!!

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF... total snow through Monday morning.

 

[TT-SEA]

Wow... the 12Z ECMWF is way less amplified for early next week.    Cut-off bias was on display yesterday.

[Jesse]

Feels like May outside

Currently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May!

 

Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Currently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May!

 

Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny.

 

Perhaps more like March.

[Blizzard777]

12Z GFS is much warmer in the long range compared to the 00Z run.    Hype might have been premature.  

No Hype just Hope  

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is not even in the ballpark at day 10... warm where it should be cold and vice versa.

 

[Blizzard777]

Sunniest weather I’ve seen in awhile.

Heading  down to Redondo beach for my bit of exercise!  Lovely out

46*

[Jesse]

Yeah. Unfortunately hints the next couple weeks could have a major cooling trend were greatly exaggerated. Phil says wait until Mid-month. Most of us say wait until next winter.

 

Who besides Jim has been hyping this up.

[Omegaraptor]

Currently 47 at SEA with rain on the way later. I hope we have a lot of weather like that this May!

Default for May lately seems to be 70-75 and sunny.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tórshavn#Climate

 

I feel like Torshavn in the Faroe Islands would be an ideal climate for you. The sun shines only 20% of the time on average year-round, 275 days of drizzle per year, average summer high of 55, average winter high 42. Sounds like you’d be in paradise.

[Jesse]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tórshavn#Climate

I feel like Torshavn in the Faroe Islands would be an ideal climate for you. The sun shines only 20% of the time on average year-round, 275 days of drizzle per year, average summer high of 55, average winter high 42. Sounds like you’d be in paradise.

Great post! I’m sure I could inaccurately portray your preferences too if I felt up to it.

 

I think you have been complaining more than anyone about the recent stretch of warm and bone dry late Springs. Something approaching normal would be nice.

[Jesse]

 

I think someone’s been feeling invincible since their resurrection.

[MossMan]

The Daily Fuzz.

[MossMan]

I see 'the daily fuzz' has turned into 'The Daily Fuzz' with capitalization and a period to boot.

 

Certainly matches the prestige of the image.

Absolutely!! I had to class it up a little.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 10...

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS at day 13... considerably warmer overall compared to the 00Z run.

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Rain for the next 7 days. Usual PNW weather.