Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Man I’m depressed tonight. Been surrounded by death since New Years and this just continues the theme.

 

I don’t really believe in this stuff, but I’m thinking back to that dead bird on the deck yesterday. Three times that has happened, and each time, the next day we received word that someone died (the previous two being my grandfather and my friend Monica). So I guess I was only half joking when I inquired as to whether it was a bad omen.

 

I do not believe in that kind of stuff. I am a fairly religious person, but I do not believe in superstitions like that.  

[Phil]

Good lord. Feb 5th - 6th (D9-10) is at least a full week before the window of potential even starts. And the long wave pattern won’t be modeled perfectly beyond D7, let alone D17.

 

Big picture > small picture in the clown range.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s not that different in the long run.

 

Seems a lot different than last nights run.

[Phil]

Seems a lot different than last nights run.

It’s not unless you’re fixated on one singular, tiny area of the globe. Again, big picture. The pattern *progression* (IE: the evolution of the waveguide(s) and pattern) is very similar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It’s not unless you’re fixated on one singular, tiny area of the globe upstream.

 

Again, big picture. The pattern progression and structure is very similar.

 

Well all I really care about is one tiny area of the globe . 

[Requiem]

Last February and March all you had was a dusting?! 

 

Oh, I thought you meant two weeks ago haha

 

Last February I had about 3 inches on the 9th, 2 inches on the 10th (w/ some thundersnow) and 4 inches on March 6th. It wasn't bad, but considering the potential it bugged me for sure. 

[Phil]

[Phil]

[Cloud]

[TT-SEA]

Feel asleep at 9... now awake.   

 

Sort of funny when you read back.   The potential is really about 2 weeks away... when the cold might retrograde.   The entire ECMWF run is obviously before that period so not sure how it can be so horrible.    And there is some potential for snow on SB Sunday still.  

 

Here is the 00Z EPS at day 15... getting there but obviously the cold focused to our east.   No guarantee that this ends up being focused over the PNW.    But we probably won't know that for another 7-10 days as Phil mentioned.

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Feel asleep at 9... now awake.   

 

Sort of funny when you read back.   The potential is really about 2 weeks away... when the cold might retrograde.   The entire ECMWF run is obviously before that period so not sure how it can be so horrible.    And there is some potential for snow on SB Sunday still.  

 

Here is the 00Z EPS at day 15... getting there but obviously the cold focused to our east.   No guarantee that this ends up being focused over the PNW.    But we probably won't know that for another 7-10 days as Phil mentioned.

 

Night Shift!

[Cloud]

6z GFS focused the weekend AR way north into BC pretty much sparing W.Wa of any major rainfall.

[Cloud]

Very decent 6z run through day 10. Significantly cooler at 850mb.

[TT-SEA]

Very decent 6z run through day 10. Significantly cooler at 850mb.

 

Now that it appears we might avoid the bulk of the AR event... this has been much for Snoqualmie than I anticipated.

[Jesse]

Clear skies and down to 40 here.

[TT-SEA]

My Seattle Times update this morning in my inbox... looks like a landslide on Hwy 18.

 

 

 

[TT-SEA]

OLM was at 12.27 inches of rain for the month as of midnight and HQM was at 14.87 inches.

 

Both of those are about 6 inches above normal. Most impressive rain totals this month are towards the coast.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 43F briefly last night. Now up to 48F.

[bainbridgekid]

Clear skies and 45 here. Pretty impressive warmth for a clear morning in January.

[GHweatherChris]

OLM was at 12.27 inches of rain for the month as of midnight and HQM was at 14.87 inches.

 

Both of those are about 6 inches above normal. Most impressive rain totals this month are towards the coast.

Almost to 22" here, not often we are that far ahead of Hoquiam if at all, the heaviest precip almost every storm has tracked here.

[TacomaWaWx]

Got down to 41 this morning...currently mostly sunny. This is the coolest we’ve been since 1/17. Picked up 0.08” this morning...7.55” of rain for January now.

[jcmcgaffey]

My Seattle Times update this morning in my inbox... looks like a landslide on Hwy 18.

 

 

 

 

it was nice seeing mostly sunny skies this morning for once. Had a stint of an hour where the sun periodically came in and out of clouds yesterday too. It was nice.

[TacomaWaWx]

Sunday could be a little interesting...just not a snowstorm by any means.

[TT-SEA]

Total snow through next Monday morning per the 12Z GFS... that c-zone snow is on Sunday evening.

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Feel asleep at 9... now awake.   

 

Sort of funny when you read back.   The potential is really about 2 weeks away... when the cold might retrograde.   The entire ECMWF run is obviously before that period so not sure how it can be so horrible.    And there is some potential for snow on SB Sunday still.  

 

Here is the 00Z EPS at day 15... getting there but obviously the cold focused to our east.   No guarantee that this ends up being focused over the PNW.    But we probably won't know that for another 7-10 days as Phil mentioned.

 

Definitely too early to write this winter off.

[bainbridgekid]

Total snow through next Monday morning per the 12Z GFS... that c-zone snow is on Sunday evening.

 

12z also shows a hard freeze Monday and Tuesday nights and highs in the mid 30's Everett North both those days.

 

850mb temps bottom out at -10 for Seattle and are -9 or lower for 36 straight hours. Definitely a solid window for something interesting.

[TT-SEA]

12z also shows a hard freeze Monday and Tuesday nights and highs in the mid 30's Everett North both those days.

 

 

Probably would be frosty... but we know the GFS temp output is basically worthless.

[bainbridgekid]

Probably would be frosty... but we know the GFS temp output is basically worthless.

Would all depend on skies clearing and calming winds. There is also a chance convergence would keep some snow showers around into early next week like what happened with the last round.

 

Moving into the heart of the convergence zone has really changed my outlook on patterns like this.

[Cloud]

26 out of 27.

That is the number of rainy days for January for SEA

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I doubt Feb will amount to much in the Willamette Valley. Historic dud for here.

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Jesse]

Not much to be positive about here weather wise right now. It is what it is.

 

The landscape is lush, beautiful and well-watered. Mountain snowpack has turned around in a huge way in the last month and that looks to continue. There is potential for an interesting pattern starting in the next 5-7 days and we really don't know how that will turn out. You are alive and breathing and able to enjoy the whole ride regardless of what happens.

 

All how you look at it.

[El_Nina]

Another pretty sunny morning with mild temps.

[Jesse]

Another pretty sunny morning with mild temps.

 

We're due for a big soaker today after so many of these sunny mornings.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS is much warmer in the long range compared to the 00Z run.    Hype might have been premature.  

[MossMan]

12Z GFS is much warmer in the long range compared to the 00Z run. Hype might have been premature.

2/14/20...Unfortunately.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is much warmer for next week as well compared to its 00Z run.

 

Sometimes that is an indication of which way the other models will trend.

[Jesse]

GFS ensembles continue to look good.

[Cloud]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM is much warmer for next week as well compared to its 00Z run.

 

Sometimes that is an indication of which way the other models will trend.

I’m still not buying into cold stuff for this weekend. With less than a week left, seems like typical run of the mill chilly weather that’s capable of producing 500’ snow levels. Longer than that, it’s questionable at best since there has not been any consistency at all, even the EPS.

 

Not buying the hype anyone is trying to sell.