Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[TT-SEA]

It's not that there is a warm message I am trying hide from with a security blanket, it is that it feels like someone is smacking me over the head over and over and over again as if playing the role of the contrarian or showing a warm GEM run is a way to stick it to some forum member for expressing their dire for a cold May.

 

Also... what was this crap about? This whole attack was so unnecessary.

 

I did not even post any maps from the GEM... just mentioned that it was trending warmer. ECMWF followed suit and that I was I was thinking would happen. I would say it again... and would say the same thing it it trended colder.

 

I had to look back at what you are even referring to here because I missed the post about May... my post was certainly not about Jesse. Supposedly he has me on ignore but he is constantly trolling for attention from me with his 'we are due for rain' posts. I don't even pay attention to that stuff. I never reference it. Its just baked into the cake with him and things usually work out differently than he thinks anyways. In general... Jesse always wants it to be cold and wet. Its a given. I have no problem with that fact... I think he is pretty sincere about that wish.

[Omegaraptor]

Looking more and more like the trough next week will finally disrupt the jet and bring some sunshine to the PNW. Good news especially for the Puget Sound region.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Heading down to Redondo beach for my bit of exercise! Lovely out

46*

I grew up very close to that area.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Nice looking convergence zone for King/Snohomish County Sunday evening/night on the 18z.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_26 (1).png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_27 (2).png

That is rain for the swamp. Lol!! So typical!

[luvssnow_spokane]

[bainbridgekid]

That is rain for the swamp. Lol!! So typical!

Definitely not a pattern that favors the area South of Seattle. NW flow shadows you guys as you know all too well.

 

At this point I'm starting to like the chances for 1-3" North of Seattle Sunday night though. Obviously a lot can change in a week, but I like the potential here.

[TT-SEA]

Looking more and more like the trough next week will finally disrupt the jet and bring some sunshine to the PNW. Good news especially for the Puget Sound region.

 

 

Seems almost inevitable at this point... only question is will be cold and sunny.  

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Wow! Can you imagine hitting a mountain at 161 knots? Ugh. It's no wonder why lowly / boring fog is the most deadly weather type statistically speaking.

Here’s the comm between 2EX and ATC. With the flight tracker. It would appear they hung up at Burbank tower for 20mins or so waiting for weather to clear. Very chilling at the end.

 

Also, if anyone followed the golf tourney this weekend would notice that SoCal has been socked in dense fog all weekend.

I couldn't even imagine what they were all going through on the helicopter. TMZ is saying the pilot misjudged the terrain and thought he cleared all the mountains that's why he descended back down to clear the fog. I could see him getting disoriented up there with all that was going on. Just sad all around.

 

"As we reported, the pilot was way too low -- at 1,250 feet. The pilots we spoke with say it's clear based on the abrupt change on the flight tracker ... the pilot panicked and quickly ascended to 2,000 feet. We're told he cleared a mountain range by 100 feet, and the pilots we spoke with say he was so low he almost certainly saw the tops of the mountain.

 

The pilots we spoke with -- all of whom have extensive experience -- say based on the flight tracker and the accident scene, they believe the pilot felt he had cleared all of the mountains and was proceeding to head back when he hit another mountain. The pilot clearly did not know there were mountains ahead because he actually descended from 2,000 feet to 1,700 feet ... presumably to go under the fog.

 

Even more baffling, we've been told the pilot was extremely experienced flying in that area -- and was even a flight instructor. One seasoned helicopter pilot told TMZ, he could not understand why Kobe's pilot would have maintained a speed of 161 knots in such dense fog. One of the benefits of a helicopter is you can go much slower -- even 15 mph -- to gingerly avoid terrain if you're uncertain.

 

Our sources say the chopper was sophisticated and had an altitude warning signal to pull up, but it was too late. As we said, he was doing 161 knots and didn't slow down. The helicopter hit the mountain at that speed.

 

Several of the pilots we spoke with say the pilot should have gone up to clear the fog, rather than down. To that end, we're told the pilot could have slowed down to almost a stop as he turned, but didn't."

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/01/27/kobe-bryant-helicopter-pilot-misjudged-terrain-slow-down/

[ItBurnsOregon]

Definitely not a pattern that favors the area South of Seattle. NW flow shadows you guys as you know all too well.

 

At this point I'm starting to like the chances for 1-3" North of Seattle Sunday night though. Obviously a lot can change in a week, but I like the potential here.

Looks like a Clearview/Everett/Lake Stevens special. Maybe a secondary up in Stanwood/Mt. Vernon.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I couldn't even imagine what they were all going through on the helicopter. TMZ is saying the pilot misjudged the terrain and thought he cleared all the mountains that's why he descended back down to clear the fog. I could see him getting disoriented up there with all that was going on. Just sad all around.

 

"As we reported, the pilot was way too low -- at 1,250 feet. The pilots we spoke with say it's clear based on the abrupt change on the flight tracker ... the pilot panicked and quickly ascended to 2,000 feet. We're told he cleared a mountain range by 100 feet, and the pilots we spoke with say he was so low he almost certainly saw the tops of the mountain.

 

The pilots we spoke with -- all of whom have extensive experience -- say based on the flight tracker and the accident scene, they believe the pilot felt he had cleared all of the mountains and was proceeding to head back when he hit another mountain. The pilot clearly did not know there were mountains ahead because he actually descended from 2,000 feet to 1,700 feet ... presumably to go under the fog.

 

Even more baffling, we've been told the pilot was extremely experienced flying in that area -- and was even a flight instructor. One seasoned helicopter pilot told TMZ, he could not understand why Kobe's pilot would have maintained a speed of 161 knots in such dense fog. One of the benefits of a helicopter is you can go much slower -- even 15 mph -- to gingerly avoid terrain if you're uncertain.

 

Our sources say the chopper was sophisticated and had an altitude warning signal to pull up, but it was too late. As we said, he was doing 161 knots and didn't slow down. The helicopter hit the mountain at that speed.

 

Several of the pilots we spoke with say the pilot should have gone up to clear the fog, rather than down. To that end, we're told the pilot could have slowed down to almost a stop as he turned, but didn't."

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/01/27/kobe-bryant-helicopter-pilot-misjudged-terrain-slow-down/

Sorry about my bittching today. Been a rough Couple of days.

 

Glad the mtns have had better snow than 91-92 and 02-03.

[Omegaraptor]

Sorry about my bittching today. Been a rough Couple of days.

 

Glad the mtns have had better snow than 91-92 and 02-03.

 

To be fair, we lucked out hard in early January with that big storm. If not for it, snowpack would likely be as bad as it was during the infamous duds. At the start of the month it was 25% of normal.

[Jesse]

To be fair, we lucked out hard in early January with that big storm. If not for it, snowpack would likely be as bad as it was during the infamous duds. At the start of the month it was 25% of normal.

Yeah, this month would have been terrible for mountain snow if we hadn’t gotten any mountain snow. Really great point.

[Canadian guy]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Long range looks chilly. Nothing epically cold looking now but hopefully that will change and get colder.

[ItBurnsOregon]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Long range looks chilly. Nothing epically cold looking now but hopefully that will change and get colder.

Not bad. Better than this above average garbage.

[Shawn]

Just hit 10" for the month.

 

[Timmy Supercell]

Finally I'm able to use my legs out there. Not to worry the drought mongers on here too much, it will probably snow in February again! 

 

Lovely 46 degree day with light sprinkles.

 

 

And here are the biggest blobs or at least within walking distance. There might be a bigger one at the Walmart parking lot. lol

 

[Blizzard777]

I grew up very close to that area.

One of the reasons I put up with the weather here is because of the Redondo area.  

When anyone visits the house I always take them down there to show off how beautiful it is here!  

Great place to grow up!!! 

By the way I’ve been here since 97

[Cloud]

Who besides Jim has been hyping this up.

Bless his heart for trying.

[Cloud]

The one thing that’s been real striking to me this fall and winter is the lack of regional windstorms we’re used to seeing 2-3 times a year. The Puget Sound region had one New Year’s Eve but that one wasn’t even that impressive.

 

Last week there was a model run that showed a 950mb low into BC on Feb. 1 and that one is nonexistent.

[Requiem]

Yeah, this month would have been terrible for mountain snow if we hadn’t gotten any mountain snow. Really great point.

Oh man, you and Omega do not get along lol

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like Portland is right on 6" for the month. 7" is pretty much a lock by the end of Jan, maybe a run at 8" as well.

[Jesse]

Oh man, you and Omega do not get along lol

Oh cut it out. The post didn’t really make any sense. I would have pointed that out if anyone had said it.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I couldn't even imagine what they were all going through on the helicopter. TMZ is saying the pilot misjudged the terrain and thought he cleared all the mountains that's why he descended back down to clear the fog. I could see him getting disoriented up there with all that was going on. Just sad all around.

"As we reported, the pilot was way too low -- at 1,250 feet. The pilots we spoke with say it's clear based on the abrupt change on the flight tracker ... the pilot panicked and quickly ascended to 2,000 feet. We're told he cleared a mountain range by 100 feet, and the pilots we spoke with say he was so low he almost certainly saw the tops of the mountain.

The pilots we spoke with -- all of whom have extensive experience -- say based on the flight tracker and the accident scene, they believe the pilot felt he had cleared all of the mountains and was proceeding to head back when he hit another mountain. The pilot clearly did not know there were mountains ahead because he actually descended from 2,000 feet to 1,700 feet ... presumably to go under the fog.

Even more baffling, we've been told the pilot was extremely experienced flying in that area -- and was even a flight instructor. One seasoned helicopter pilot told TMZ, he could not understand why Kobe's pilot would have maintained a speed of 161 knots in such dense fog. One of the benefits of a helicopter is you can go much slower -- even 15 mph -- to gingerly avoid terrain if you're uncertain.

Our sources say the chopper was sophisticated and had an altitude warning signal to pull up, but it was too late. As we said, he was doing 161 knots and didn't slow down. The helicopter hit the mountain at that speed.

Several of the pilots we spoke with say the pilot should have gone up to clear the fog, rather than down. To that end, we're told the pilot could have slowed down to almost a stop as he turned, but didn't."https://www.tmz.com/2020/01/27/kobe-bryant-helicopter-pilot-misjudged-terrain-slow-down/

He went up because ATC told him to. He needed to be higher so they could either see him on radar and/or be able to maintain radio contact. Also, he may have been transitioning to IFR, another reason to climb. We need to let the NTSB do it's job. Interesting to speculate, but still too early to know.

[Cloud]

I couldn't even imagine what they were all going through on the helicopter. TMZ is saying the pilot misjudged the terrain and thought he cleared all the mountains that's why he descended back down to clear the fog. I could see him getting disoriented up there with all that was going on. Just sad all around.

 

"As we reported, the pilot was way too low -- at 1,250 feet. The pilots we spoke with say it's clear based on the abrupt change on the flight tracker ... the pilot panicked and quickly ascended to 2,000 feet. We're told he cleared a mountain range by 100 feet, and the pilots we spoke with say he was so low he almost certainly saw the tops of the mountain.

 

The pilots we spoke with -- all of whom have extensive experience -- say based on the flight tracker and the accident scene, they believe the pilot felt he had cleared all of the mountains and was proceeding to head back when he hit another mountain. The pilot clearly did not know there were mountains ahead because he actually descended from 2,000 feet to 1,700 feet ... presumably to go under the fog.

 

Even more baffling, we've been told the pilot was extremely experienced flying in that area -- and was even a flight instructor. One seasoned helicopter pilot told TMZ, he could not understand why Kobe's pilot would have maintained a speed of 161 knots in such dense fog. One of the benefits of a helicopter is you can go much slower -- even 15 mph -- to gingerly avoid terrain if you're uncertain.

 

Our sources say the chopper was sophisticated and had an altitude warning signal to pull up, but it was too late. As we said, he was doing 161 knots and didn't slow down. The helicopter hit the mountain at that speed.

 

Several of the pilots we spoke with say the pilot should have gone up to clear the fog, rather than down. To that end, we're told the pilot could have slowed down to almost a stop as he turned, but didn't."

 

https://www.tmz.com/2020/01/27/kobe-bryant-helicopter-pilot-misjudged-terrain-slow-down/

I’m pretty sure they’ll be more details coming out in the coming weeks but from what I’ve been gathering this is absolutely a combination weather and human related error. The fact that they were flying VFR, which requires good weather conditions is very striking and a massive mistake.

 

There also may be a pressured factor involve because of who’s on board. It would seem the Burbank Tower gave them SVFR to clear the tower and proceed but flight tracker showed they scooted around the Van Nuys Tower, assumingely not wanting to wait for clearance there too.

[Cloud]

He went up because ATC told him to. He needed to be higher so they could either see him on radar and/or be able to maintain radio contact. Also, he may have been transitioning to IFR, another reason to climb. We need to let the NTSB do it's job. Interesting to speculate, but still too early to know.

It’ll be interesting to see. Like you said, it’s interesting to speculate but I thought he climbed into the cloud, became disoriented and proceeded to descend and it was a steep descent, assuming to get back to where the pilot can see, that was when Flight Following tells them they needed to go higher for tracking, then crashed.

[Omegaraptor]

Cut it out. The post didn’t really make any sense. I would have pointed that out if anyone had said it.

 

All right let me explain what I meant in my post.

 

Snowpack was anemic at the beginning of January. The Hood basin was at 25% of normal. During early-mid January, there was about a seven-day period where it was cold in the mountains, there were potent storm systems, and thus very large amounts of snowpack built up in the basin and notably on the ski resorts. Had that storm not occurred, and given the way this winter is going we're lucky it occurred, we would still likely be well below average for snowpack, and the current warm/wet pattern would not be helping in the slightest. That singular storm system is what is setting us apart from infamous "winters" like 1991-92 and 2014-15 in the snowpack department.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just saw Denver recorded 0.01" of precip today. First precip that has fallen there this month!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like Fairbanks is going to have a -20/-39 day today. Really cold month up there. Though it has not had a lot of extreme cold. 

[MossMan]

Looks like a Clearview/Everett/Lake Stevens special. Maybe a secondary up in Stanwood/Mt. Vernon.

Works for me!

[Timmy Supercell]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Long range looks chilly. Nothing epically cold looking now but hopefully that will change and get colder.

 

I'd bet on a moderately cold setup, two top 5's in a row is very unlikely.

[MossMan]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

 

Long range looks chilly. Nothing epically cold looking now but hopefully that will change and get colder.

Actually looks pretty darn good!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Thrilling.

 

I remember my brother had a lot of baseball games rained out that spring. 

 

Looks like Silver Falls had precip on 56 of 61 days in March and April that spring. 

 

You would LOVE a March 2005 redux though. That was incredibly nice. I went fishing every day during the firs half of that month. Though the latter half of the month and April 2005 were quite wet and cool I drove up to Silver Falls in mid-April and they had just gotten about 5" of snow. It was probably the only snow they had that cold season.

[Jesse]

All right let me explain what I meant in my post.

 

Snowpack was anemic at the beginning of January. The Hood basin was at 25% of normal. During early-mid January, there was about a seven-day period where it was cold in the mountains, there were potent storm systems, and thus very large amounts of snowpack built up in the basin and notably on the ski resorts. Had that storm not occurred, and given the way this winter is going we're lucky it occurred, we would still likely be well below average for snowpack, and the current warm/wet pattern would not be helping in the slightest. That singular storm system is what is setting us apart from infamous "winters" like 1991-92 and 2014-15 in the snowpack department.

Yeah, but this simply isn’t true. It was not just a single system. There were a parade of cold and wet systems in the early to mid January timeframe that lasted for longer than a week. We caught up very gradually, and continue to add to totals even this week. And a pattern that is generally favorable for more Cascade snow looks to continue into the future.

 

It’s not like we have been in a bone dry 1991-92 or 2014-15 type pattern with one freak snowstorm. That’s just not an accurate representation of this season. By next week, we will have been adding to the snowpack for about a month.

[SnarkyGoblin]

One of the reasons I put up with the weather here is because of the Redondo area.  

When anyone visits the house I always take them down there to show off how beautiful it is here!  

Great place to grow up!!! 

By the way I’ve been here since 97

Ha!  Then you'll remember when they had to redo the boardwalk the first time around.  That boardwalk did/does not do well with very strong winds.  Hopefully the latest rebuild will last longer.  My dad still lives there so I visit often (Marlbrook neighborhood).

 

I remember going down via Redondo on my bike in the summer and getting some snacks at the Salty's outside patio area.  Busted my knee playing bball at that park.  Watch locals  catch suspect fish.  And, rather sadly, my brother and his friend passed away from a car accident going down that Redondo road in 1996.

 

So the area is a little bittersweet for me - but you couldn't beat it on a nice sunny day when all you had was a bike and 2 legs!

[Timmy Supercell]

Let's not forget the late November storms? Without the mid January storms I'd be sitting at multiple times my 14-15 snowfall that entire winter.

 

Didn't Bend have 1-2 feet depths come Thanksgiving week?

[Omegaraptor]

Let's not forget the late November storms? Without the mid January storms I'd be sitting at multiple times my 14-15 snowfall that entire winter.

 

Didn't Bend have 1-2 feet depths come Thanksgiving?

 

The bomb cyclone was a southern OR and far north CA special. Not much happened above 44ºN that I recall. In fact, when I drove up from Portland to Seattle on Thanksgiving it was clear skies all the way through while blizzard warnings were being issued on Siskiyou Summit.

[Cloud]

It’s raining

[Omegaraptor]

[Timmy Supercell]

It’s raining

 

Music to my ears (or eyes?)!

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

At least I had 1/4" of snow on November 30th, and then on January 17th? I think I had just under 1" of snow. Briefly fun. Growing up I can remember quite a few Winters where we could only manage a rain/snow mix or nothing at all.