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Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion


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Some views of the cabin we’ve been staying at. About 12 miles west of Bend. Definitely getting my snow and cold fix out here.        

Max depth was around 19” 

A lot of thoughts tonight. First the weather. Absolutely gorgeous day in NE Oklahoma today. Awoke to dissipating high clouds and a heavy frost up in Nowata County. Skies completely cleared by mid-morn

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66/32 and blue skies today. Decent winter weather for here. Current forecast is for 78/49 and sun on Sunday before a potent front blasts through. Monday will be 57/32 and very windy with showers. 44/26 on Tuesday with a chance of morning snow :)

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Yeah I did, what are you going to do about it? It goes to 384 hours for a reason doesn’t it? When you see a solution in the models it increases the chance of that happening.

Statistically, the chance of a solution 10+ days out happening is roughly the same as if you let a monkey throw darts.

Low. Solar.

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Hello fellow Nest neighbor.

I convinced my family and gf to help chip in w/ the 30d archive “for security” but in reality I just wanted videos of storms/etc that I ordinarily wouldn’t be able to take.

That was my motivation as well!

Since I’m down in Portland so much if something big happens up here I can watch it from there and get a consolation prize.

They are awesome to have lots of fun! Currently I have my Nest camera on my iPad streaming to my Bluetooth speaker so I can hear the wind inside the house it’s scaring me though lol!

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Seems like the wind is dialing back slightly for now...had strong southerlies for about an hour gusts around 50ish mph. Definitely the strongest blow of the season here.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Seems like the wind is dialing back slightly for now...had strong southerlies for about an hour gusts around 50ish mph. Definitely the strongest blow of the season here.

I’m good with it edging off a bit but still sounding quite loud out! Funny thing is you think their done then they smack you again.  Kind of like ocean waves they come in sets.  

Sideways rain moments away 

58*

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I’m good with it edging off a bit but still sounding quite loud out! Funny thing is you think their done then they smack you again. Kind of like ocean waves they come in sets.

Sideways rain moments away

58*

yeah 58 and sideways rain here as well... we will see how much rain falls before midnight for the final monthly total.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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Forks is 31.58 ytd on rain. Amazing

I had 31.32” of rain in 2019...pretty crazy rain total. I’ll be close to 11” by midnight for the month and more rain is coming next week. It’ll have to dry out soon.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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00Z ECMWF is basically dry all day on Sunday... small band of precip moves through King County that evening but it does not look like much.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Both the NAM and HRRR like the idea of three rounds of 45mph+ gusts of wind for the Seattle and Everett areas, 1am, 5am, and 9am. That last round is when the winds turn westerly and Everett take it from the Strait.

nam-wind-0500.png

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Looks like our lake house is powerless as well. This is just down the street from there.

yeah it’s been a pretty decent storm it feels like it’s been awhile since a good storm like this.
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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-25

Coldest high-32

Freezes-16

Monthly rainfall-0.82”

Cold season rainfall-32.91”

Snowfall-15.5”

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I’ve been out of town this week. Looks wet at home. Shawnigan lake has likely passed 16” for January and probably getting close to 17”.

 

Only about 8" of rain here this month, maybe 9~10" if you include the snow melt. However, we're taking a last good run at upping the rainfall total at the moment. Seems pretty odd that we'd get so little wind here with what's happening on the other side of the Strait, it's still very calm here. I guess it must be the Olympics blocking the south wind.

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Portland’s climate has seen no significant wet or dry trend in the last eight decades.

I decided to delve deeper into the precipitation of what I consider to be our flip months of May and June.

Portland average rainfall for May is 2.50", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got (2.57") and each May since then has run a rainfall deficit of over a half inch, at the least. In 2015(0.59") and 2016(0.16") it basically didn't rain in May. 2015 was especially hard on the ecosystem I bet because it ended up staying very dry through June(0.40") as well.

Portland average rainfall for June is 1.70", we have not gone over that amount since 2014 when we got 2.32". We came close to average in 2016(1.42") but that was already following a May with nearly an inch of rainfall deficit so still quite dry there. June 2015(0.40") and June 2019(0.45") were remarkably bad.

Count in how warm it also was during this stretch and you can see how late spring is becoming summer.

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