Pacific Northwest Weather -June 2023

[SilverFallsAndrew]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies...

 

Could be worse. 

[Phil]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

New ECMWF weeklies...

 

The weeklies seem to default to warmth in the LR.

See below. Completely missed the upcoming cool pattern. Need to use clustering/EOF analysis for predictability at longer ranges.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim is now a columnist.

https://thespectator.com/topic/wildfire-apocalypse-canada-climate-change/

Our friend Shawnigan actually wrote that article.    

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

The weeklies seem to default to warmth in the LR.

See below. Completely missed the upcoming cool pattern. Need to use clustering/EOF analysis for predictability at longer ranges.

Yeah... I am not sure how much the weeklies are really worth after about 2 weeks.   Always seems to blend towards climo as the disparity amongst individual members grows with time.  

[TT-SEA]

81 in North Bend with a dewpoint of 64.  Also 80 with a dewpoint of 65 at the station closest to my house.   I am guessing it's related to moisture left over from the recent rain and a lack of wind since that event.    

[Omegaraptor]

3 hours ago, Phil said:

I’ll wager the 12z CMC is closer to reality than the 12z GFS. And it probably won’t be close.

Looks remarkably wet on the eastside. Would put a good couple week delay on fire season out there

[ShawniganLake]

33 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Our friend Shawnigan actually wrote that article.    

I haven’t read it but most of the fires this year are in Canada’s vast boreal forests and they commonly burn in pretty frequent cycles.  Mother Nature is likely making up for our heavy handed fire suppression.  Also, it’s not uncommon for fire season to peak earlier up north.  A lot of the big fires over the years have been early in the season. 

[Tyler Mode]

Quite a bit of smoke overspreading quite a bit of ice still on Hudson's Bay.

[TacomaWx]

80 here for #6 this year. 

[LowerGarfield]

17 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Back from a few lovely days off the grid on the northern CA coast. I see it rained a half inch while I was gone, what a treat! And more coming next weekend! 

This beach looks so familiar. Where in CA did you camp? What beach is this?

[Phil]

12z Euro QPF for today: 1/2” to 1”.

Outcome: 0.02”.

Can’t f**king win.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting when we look ahead on the CFS. It is indicating a large center of warmth over the upper mid-west in January. FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Interesting when we look ahead on the CFS. It is indicating a large center of warmth over the upper mid-west in January. FOOD FOR THOUGHT.

Cold midwestern winter coming, then?

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z Euro QPF for today: 1/2” to 1”.

Outcome: 0.02”.

Can’t f**king win.

Models sucks.   GEM and ECMWF both showed 77 at SEA today.  Current temp is 81.   GFS showed 84 and will be the closest.   

GEM definitely has the same cool bias as the ECMWF in the Puget Sound area.  In fact it might be even more pronounced. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

12z Euro QPF for today: 1/2” to 1”.

Outcome: 0.02”.

Can’t f**king win.

You know the worm will turn.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Models sucks.   GEM and ECMWF both showed 77 at SEA today.  Current temp is 81.   GFS showed 84 and will be the closest.   

GEM definitely has the same cool bias as the ECMWF in the Puget Sound area.  In fact it might be even more pronounced. 

12z GFS actually busted 7°F too cool here today despite projecting the lowest QPF and more sunshine. I just don’t understand that model.

I’ve been following the GFS 2m output in the Puget Sound region since early May. That model is INSANELY warm biased up there, consistently overmixed/warm during diurnal maximum. Always has those rogue mid/upper 80s in the mid/long range, all of which turn out to be bullshit.

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know the worm will turn.

But when?

[Meatyorologist]

Oh my gawd

[Meatyorologist]

And this is a gorgeous trough, which is absolutely coming. Should last a few days too. A BLESSING

[Eugene-5SW]

Came home to Eugene and it's 87º at my house. That's warmer than anything I encountered in 2,000 miles of travel through all of California's major climate zones except the low desert.

[Eugene-5SW]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z Euro QPF for today: 1/2” to 1”.

Outcome: 0.02”.

Can’t f**king win.

At least we know the Euro is consistent across locations. It routinely overdoes precip amounts here by a substantial factor, even on the day of the event. I can't seem to adjust mentally -- I'm always excited by how much I'm supposed to get, and always disappointed by the ensuing under-performance.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

And this is a gorgeous trough, which is absolutely coming. Should last a few days too. A BLESSING

Rare to see the GFS without an 80+ high at SeaTac in the medium/long range. That’s when you know it’s the real deal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

But when?

Eventually. 

[TT-SEA]

35 minutes ago, Phil said:

12z GFS actually busted 7°F too cool here today despite projecting the lowest QPF and more sunshine. I just don’t understand that model.

I’ve been following the GFS 2m output in the Puget Sound region since early May. That model is INSANELY warm biased up there, consistently overmixed/warm during diurnal maximum. Always has those rogue mid/upper 80s in the mid/long range, all of which turn out to be bullshit.

GFS is best in the Puget Sound area in the short range when the 500mb pattern is settled.   Like today.   Way better than the GEM and ECMWF.   

The issue after about day 5 with the GFS temp output is not a warm or cold bias... it just has no idea what the 500mb pattern will be.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

GFS is best in the Puget Sound area in the short range when the 500mb pattern is settled.   Like today.   Way better than the GEM and ECMWF.   

The issue after about day 5 with the GFS temp output is not a warm or cold bias... it just has no idea what the 500mb pattern will be.

The GFS has a demonstrable warm diurnal-max 2m bias. It’s already been identified by NCEP and detailed in the published literature/verification analyses. Largely this is because it overmixes/dries the boundary layer.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

41 minutes ago, Phil said:

Rare to see the GFS without an 80+ high at SeaTac in the medium/long range. That’s when you know it’s the real deal.

I’m worried about my garden Sunday/Monday. Lows in my area are typically 7-8 degrees colder than forecasts if it is a clear or foggy night

[TigerWoodsLibido]

90F burger for EUG

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

The GFS has a demonstrable warm diurnal-max 2m bias. It’s already been identified by NCEP and detailed in the published literature/verification analyses. Largely this is because it overmixes/dries the boundary layer.

For the Puget Sound area... its the best model for temp output within 5 days in the warm season.   Hands down.    Not even close.   Different story after day 5.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For the Puget Sound area... its the best model for temp output within 5 days in the warm season.   Hands down.    Not even close.   Different story after day 5.

It is absolutely not, but if it makes you feel better to believe that, go right ahead.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m worried about my garden Sunday/Monday. Lows in my area are typically 7-8 degrees colder than forecasts if it is a clear or foggy night

Crazy how different your location is than here at the same elevation.  Really glad you joined the forum because I am learning so much about that area.

I have zero concerns about anything close to frost here.   Do you have a pic of your garden?   Here is ours this afternoon...

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

It is absolutely not, but if it makes you feel better to believe that, go right ahead.

Ohhh there is literally no question. Specifically for the Puget Sound area and within 5 days in the warm season.   Of course I track all the model output religiously every day.  For years.   And then actually live it.   

 

 

[Doinko]

Looks like PDX narrowly avoided 90

[TacomaWx]

82 here…might hit 83 in the next hour or so. 

[SnowWillarrive]

24 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

90F burger for EUG

Totally different climate down there in California 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Crazy how different your location is than here at the same elevation.  Really glad you joined the forum because I am learning so much about that area.

I have zero concerns about anything close to frost here.   Do you have a pic of your garden?   Here is ours this afternoon...

 

All my cold weather stuff except broccoli/cauliflower is doing well (we messed that up this year somehow). Half my tomatoes and all my peppers are still in pots being hardened off, waiting for the last trough. Beans, dahlias and squash/zucchini got hit hardest by last frost. I am most worried about them. Potatoes look great. My garden is huge. 50 ft by 200 ft. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

 

All my cold weather stuff except broccoli/cauliflower is doing well (we messed that up this year somehow). Half my tomatoes and all my peppers are still in pots being hardened off, waiting for the last trough. Beans, dahlias and squash/zucchini got hit hardest by last frost. I am most worried about them. Potatoes look great. My garden is huge. 50 ft by 200 ft. 

Holy crap... you have a massive garden area!    Do you have issues with animals or slugs?   

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Holy crap... you have a massive garden area!    Do you have issues with animals or slugs?   

My orchard (75 trees) and garden are in a 2 acre enclosed area with a 8 ft fence so no deer. Slugs are bad when spring is wet, so not this year. Voles come and go, I can usually trap them. Rats were bad my first year, but I eliminated them.

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ohhh there is literally no question. Specifically for the Puget Sound area and within 5 days in the warm season.   Of course I track all the model output religiously every day.  For years.   And then actually live it.   

 

 

The sky is pink with purple and white polkadots too.

[TT-SEA]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

The sky is pink with purple and white polkadots too.

The ECMWF and GEM are wrong almost every day in the short range (within 5 days) for the Seattle area in the warm season.

Today's scorecard:

ECMWF - 77

GEM - 77

GFS - 84

Actual high - 84.  

 

Tomorrow the ECMWF shows 69, the GEM has 68, and the GFS shows 71.  

 

 

[MossMan]

Warm out. Grass is growing like crazy again.