April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs and the euro show about an inch of rain through the first week of May. That would make this May wetter than 4 out of the last 5. Were also at 5.89” for the meteorological spring...a lot better than the 4.25” we had for all of last spring. 19.40” YTD.

[MossMan]

.44” on the day, 2.84” for the month, 27.42” for the year.

Currently raining and 47 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Had some heavy showers here during the night... received almost an inch of rain since yesterday evening which is much more than I was expecting.   

 

Sun is coming out now.

[TacomaWaWx]

This weekend looks like it could be fairly active weather wise...decent bit of rain...breezy conditions and some thunderstorms possible.

[TacomaWaWx]

Getting some light rain here...53 degrees.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Been dry all night here after a trace before bed. Currently 56F.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yesterday Baker City had 1" hail. Now if some of that hail can be further west.

[Jesse]

Some big improvements on the 12z GFS, in the long range. It would be fun to get a spike of ridging in week two and see some temps in the 80s, just would be nice if it didn’t last all month.

[Jesse]

0.27” of rain with this system. Not bad. Currently cloudy and 47.

I ended up with .16” which is more than I was expecting, Andrew.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

B4C0C3B1-138C-4953-9E23-773432948674.jpeg

 

From the beginning of the month...

Just goes to show you how hard long range forecasting is.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like EUG is going to end the month close to 2" below normal precip. Trying to figure out our deficit since Jan 1 but I'm going to assume we are about 10" below normal to this point.  A dry May and June mean a Silent Hill scenario is more likely.

[Jesse]

Just goes to show you how hard long range forecasting is.

Yeah even a week ago we were convinced the end of the month could be well into the 80s!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I ended up with .16” which is more than I was expecting, Andrew.

 

Good to hear it Jesse. The greenery has just exploded here. This is definitely one of my favorite times of the year. These warm nights have been the real kicker. 

[Jesse]

Potential for a fun roller coaster type pattern on the 12z ensembles.

 

[Jesse]

Good to hear it Jesse. The greenery has just exploded here. This is definitely one of my favorite times of the year. These warm nights have been the real kicker.

 

Yeah I was really expecting things to stay mostly bare for another month or so with all the frosts.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah I was really expecting things to stay mostly bare for another month or so with all the frosts.

 

Seems unrealistic.

[Jesse]

Nice day!

[GHweatherChris]

Hail!

[Jesse]

12z Euro shows some nice May variability for the first 7-10 days of the month. Also wetter than previous runs for the Portland area.

[Jesse]

Hail!

Kind of like frost but delivered in cute little packages!

[Kayla]

Good to hear it Jesse. The greenery has just exploded here. This is definitely one of my favorite times of the year. These warm nights have been the real kicker. 

 

Grass is still dormant though right??

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is pretty warm overall.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Grass is still dormant though right??

Will be by July.

[El_Nina]

Picked up 0.05" overnight. 1.99" for April.

[Jesse]

Picked up 0.05" overnight. 1.99" for April.

 

I don't know how to break this to you but you probably won't make it to 2"

[TacomaWaWx]

Picked up 0.05" overnight. 1.99" for April.

We’ve picked up 0.03” here today to go to 2.01”. Looks like we’ve got some more showers coming so it’ll probably get bumped up a bit more.

[El_Nina]

I don't know how to break this to you but you probably won't make it to 2"

I'm not even going to reach less than 50% of normal.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'm not even going to reach less than 50% of normal.

Hopefully next month is wet!

[Jesse]

[Jesse]

Pop up showers!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z EPS is pretty warm overall.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

Looks like the operational is faster with moving the ridge out.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z GFS was nice. 

[Jesse]

12z GFS was nice. 

 

We all know we're staring down the barrel of a mostly ridgy month, don't we.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We all know we're staring down the barrel of a mostly ridgy month, don't we.

 

 

Of course, but it won't be as bad as say, May 2018. At least I hope not. 

[Jesse]

Of course, but it won't be as bad as say, May 2018. At least I hope not. 

 

Last May wasn't great around here either. Although I didn't experience the whole thing since we spent the last 1/3 in Germany. It ended up being mainly dry and like 5th warmest on record at PDX, though. I think 2018 was 2nd.

 

1992 still managing to hold onto the #1 spot for now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Last May wasn't great around here either. Although I didn't experience the whole thing since we spent the last 1/3 in Germany. It ended up being mainly dry and like 5th warmest on record at PDX, though. I think 2018 was 2nd.

 

1992 still managing to hold onto the #1 spot for now.

 

Yeah it wasn't great, honestly all I remember from last May is my daughters birthday party. It was nice that day. 

[bainbridgekid]

Can't say I expected 30 mph winds here today. KPAE just gusted to 31 mph.

[BLI snowman]

Last May wasn't great around here either. Although I didn't experience the whole thing since we spent the last 1/3 in Germany. It ended up being mainly dry and like 5th warmest on record at PDX, though. I think 2018 was 2nd.

 

1992 still managing to hold onto the #1 spot for now.

 

 

The thing is we topped out at a pedestrian 90 degrees between the last two Mays, so we are actually still rather due for a really historic heat event in that month.  

 

Both 2018 and 2019 featured the standard stuck ridging as opposed to the sharp thermal troughs that really correspond with our big spring heat numbers. I would say those years tend to lead to higher spikes but sharp crashes, as well, which the last couple Mays have both lacked.

[Jesse]

The thing is we topped out at a pedestrian 90 degrees between the last two Mays, so we are actually still rather due for a really historic heat event in that month.

 

Both 2018 and 2019 featured the standard stuck ridging as opposed to the sharp thermal troughs that really correspond with our big spring heat numbers. I would say those years tend to lead to higher spikes but sharp crashes, as well, which the last couple Mays have both lacked.

Yup, I would easily be ok with seeing some spikes well into the 90s this May if it meant we saw a more dynamic wave train overall.

 

Stuck ridging has been a recurring theme in almost every warm season lately. And it’s got to be one of the most mind numbingly dull patterns possible for any weather enthusiast. It even makes the big heat numbers harder to come by. Last summer was a nice shake up with things staying changeable overall at 500mb, even though it still lead to a warm final result.

[Timmy Supercell]

Viewer pic on NWS Boise's Facebook page, shelf cloud and dust storm.

 

Also a 1.75" hail report in Owyhee County out of the storms so far.