April 2020 Weather discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12z ain't bad. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For all the Alaska vortex lovers on this forum, it looks like Utqiaġvik, Alaska dropped to -20°F this AM. First record low there since December 2007, less than a year before the inception of the -PMM/cold phase cycle (which terminated in 2013).

 

Also appears to be the coldest temperature observed there this late in the season by 11°F.

 

WOW

[MossMan]

We had a few inches of overrunning snow mid month, I think. Not much but it was white

Same here. One evening where we got a half inch and that was it. Though I was in Moses Lake at the time and had a little more over there.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was living in Oklahoma in December 2009, we had a blizzard on Christmas Eve. 

[Jesse]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Death ridge doesn’t stick around as long.

 

Hard to imagine a May where the ridging breaks down, so I’m not buying it yet

 

Yup, we've seen this movie plenty of times over the past 7 yrs.

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEFS stays ridgy in the long range... here is the 7-day mean for days 9-16.

 

[TT-SEA]

Commence operation "Stain the Deck" in T-minus 10...

 

 

I would not count on the old GFS ensembles.   

[Jesse]

Commence operation "Stain the Deck" in T-minus 10...

Didn’t get time during the three weeks of dry weather in April?

[Jesse]

A good example of the difference between misleadingly smoothed maps and what the ensembles actually show to be had here. In reality, the GFS ensembles have a ton of spread in the long range, and a troughy signal before the very end.

 

[TT-SEA]

A good example of the difference between misleadingly smoothed maps and what the ensembles actually show to be had here. In reality, the GFS ensembles have a ton of spread in the long range, and a troughy signal before the very end.

 

DA459788-4F2C-4763-998D-4087D01B03B0.png

 

 

The maps are way better than those charts for a specific location that give you no clue about the overall pattern.   

 

The 12Z GEFS is actually ridgy right through day 16... and is still warm on day 16.   The mean is important because the most likely solution is a blend of all the members.

 

 

 

But the GEFS is not that reliable anyways so it probably does not matter.

[Jesse]

Oh, I had the time. But my priorities were elsewhere, mainly being outside and enjoying the sun with my family. You'd be amazed at the mental gymnastics I can do to rationalize delaying staining the deck. My deck isn't stained, but my son can now absolutely rip around on his Strider bike.

 

I guess we better turn to Yuma so people have more time to put off their dry weather projects.

[TT-SEA]

Never tell Jesse you want to take advantage of nice weather.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF does not show much ridging at all. GEFS will be wrong which is quite common.

[MossMan]

Never tell Jesse you want to take advantage of nice weather.

You can stain your deck in 48 degree heavy drizzle! You can do anything in 48 degree heavy drizzle and you better like or else!!

 

Sincerely, Jesse

[Jesse]

Really nice looking Euro run.

[Jesse]

You can stain your deck in 48 degree heavy drizzle! You can do anything in 48 degree heavy drizzle and you better like or else!!

Sincerely, Jesse

That’s silly. My only point is that we’ve had no lack of long, dry sunny periods this spring. Obviously that’s not a project you would want to do in the rain.

 

I am glad to hear he was able to enjoy the sunshine in other ways, though. We actually got the bikes out early this month as well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is actually warmer and drier than the ECMWF so far... here is day 10.

 

[TT-SEA]

66 and mostly sunny here... dewpoint creeping up into the mid 50s.

 

Might be some convection with that negatively tilted front coming through this evening.

[Jesse]

First time it has actually felt both warm and a little humid outside so far this spring. Currently 68, DP 54.

[weatherfan2012]

That kinda sucks. I like gray, drizzly days a lot. They add moody flavor to what would otherwise be bland regularity.

Late May to August here is also very southern..it’s all convective precip, no cloudy days/stratiform stuff. But it’s a shorter severe season with a lower tornado risk compared to the Plains. March and April are very active in the Plains but essentially dormant here.

alot of our summer storms tend to be the slow movers due to the lack of anything to push them anywhere no wind flow above.unless its a stronger then normal storm system.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS actually stays warm in the long range...

 

 

 

FWIW... its still warm at day 15 too.  

[Jesse]

10th 70 degree day this month at PDX

 

#coldspring

[Deweydog]

Nice day!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

Clouding up out there. 69F.

[Jesse]

Front off the coastline looks pretty weak. Perhaps it will pick up some dynamics moving over the warm airmass in place later today.

[Jesse]

Euro show close to an inch of rain for the Portland area over the next 10 days. A little drier than the last few runs.

 

Also delays the start of the ridgy period that has been advertised in week two. Hopefully the start of a trend.

[TT-SEA]

71 here and still mostly sunny.

[GeorgeWx]

We set a new record high temp yesterday of 75F which broke the old record of 74F set in 2013. Pretty impressive for April at 6300'. We will finish this lousy winter with about 50% of normal snowfall and 60% of normal precip. Hopefully the Monsoon will deliver this summer.

Lake Tahoe can get big lightning storms if the monsoon is good. Are you on the California or Nevada side?

[Jesse]

Lake Tahoe can get big lightning storms if the monsoon is good. Are you on the California or Nevada side?

We were down there on a family trip in August of 2003 and I remember some pretty spectacular storms. Then every night it would clear out and drop down around 40. Pretty interesting climate.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 70 here for the first time this year. Filtered sunshine and breezy SW winds.

[Jesse]

Up to 70 here for the first time this year. Filtered sunshine and breezy SW winds.

Up to 74 here. Honestly feels pretty sweaty out. Reminds me why I don’t like balmy, overcast warm days in the warm season.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 74 here. Honestly feels pretty sweaty out. Reminds me why I don’t like balmy, overcast warm days in the warm season.

yeah feels like summer actually...up to 71 now here.

[Phil]

[Jesse]

yeah feels like summer actually...up to 71 now here.

Hard to believe we are already at early to mid August sun angles!

[GeorgeWx]

We were down there on a family trip in August of 2003 and I remember some pretty spectacular storms. Then every night it would clear out and drop down around 40. Pretty interesting climate.

Last time I went down there was in 2015 during July 4th weekend. They had to clear Incline beach where we were swimming due to the thunderstorms. Seems like a nice place for retirement.

[TT-SEA]

73 here now.

[Jesse]

Looks like marine air has already reached much of the Willamette valley, capping afternoon temps there. Lots of warm season features to today’s pattern.

[AlTahoe]

Lake Tahoe can get big lightning storms if the monsoon is good. Are you on the California or Nevada side?

South Lake Tahoe on the California side about 2 miles west of the Nevada state line. We benefit from being in the middle of the Sierra Nevada crest and the Carson Range so storms tend to follow both of those ridges giving us a good light show. We also get monster hail storms in summer. Sometimes they have to bring the snow plows out to clear the hail from the highways. I recorded hail 4" deep on the level during a July 2015 storm.