July 2020 Observations and Discussion

[bud2380]

Small cell just parked over top of me again. Already over an inch in about 15 minutes. Local high school reporting 4.13”/hour rates

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks like another miss here as all the action is pushing south, like a broken record. I am thankful for the .25 to .30 of rain that fell here this morning or else this would have been looking like a complete bust for the Omaha metro again.

These misses are getting old. Drought conditions will continue. It will be cooler this week is the only positive. Maybe we’ll break this cycle for winter

[Stormy]

Wow Bud! Hate being on the edge here but it might be back building a bit. At least it cooled off! It was awesome watching it develop right before my eyes! Still pretty breezy. Rain will pick up soon I hope.

[bud2380]

1.34”. Rain tapering off now.

[Stormy]

I'm literally on the south edge when early on it appeared that some would pass south. Only light to moderate rain.

 

Edit: A spotter report of 1" only 3 miles to my north. So jealous.

[Stormy]

Only 0.27” here then. At least it’s something, but it was just a teaser that won’t go far at all. Drought city, here we come! Map won’t show it for such a small area, but it’s here nonetheless.

[St Paul Storm]

My phone says 84 with a 91 feels like up here in St Paul. To me it feels hotter. Although it is mostly cloudy.

@St Paul Storm what you got?

 

I'll tell you what I have....I've had enough of +75F dew points. LOL! I'm ready for Fall after another steamy weekend.

[Bryan1117]

Only 0.27” here then. At least it’s something, but it was just a teaser that won’t go far at all. Drought city, here we come! Map won’t show it for such a small area, but it’s here nonetheless.

Getting a little more light rain here but it doesn't look like it will amount to much more than another one to two tenths of an inch of rainfall. It's just amazing how some areas are getting absolutely dumped on by each weather system that passes by, while some of us can't buy a decent one inch plus rainfall.  

[james1976]

I'll tell you what I have....I've had enough of +75F dew points. LOL! I'm ready for Fall after another steamy weekend.

I agree!! Way tired of the humidity and bugs. Just got back to my place here in Iowa. Way muggy out still and not a single drop of rain in my gauge from the weekend. Looks like I join the club of people who ended up with a rainless frontal passage.

[clintbeed1993]

The NWS point forecast is no longer accurate at all.  It's a joke how wrong it's been lately. Had 1-2 inches of rain in it all day and we've maybe had a quarter inch with no thunderstorm activity to speak of.  STILL has 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms while there's absolutely nothing on radar.

 

The NWS has done a very lousy job in general lately, and this was about the biggest bust of them all. The worst part is they don't seem to care as they offer no explanation on the discussion page.

[Stormy]

The NWS point forecast is no longer accurate at all. It's a joke how wrong it's been lately. Had 1-2 inches of rain in it all day and we've maybe had a quarter inch with no thunderstorm activity to speak of. STILL has 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms while there's absolutely nothing on radar.

 

The NWS has done a very lousy job in general lately, and this was about the biggest bust of them all. The worst part is they don't seem to care as they offer no explanation on the discussion page.

The NWS lowered my rainfall chances down to 40% and now I get this.....

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL

324 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

 

IAC095-103-107-183-271030-

Keokuk-Johnson-Washington-Iowa-

324 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2020

 

...MINOR FLOODING FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KEOKUK...

SOUTHWESTERN JOHNSON...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND SOUTHERN IOWA

COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

 

At 323 AM CDT, radar indicated heavy rain from thunderstorms was

falling along a line extending from 6 miles northwest of What Cheer

to near Kinross. The thunderstorms with heavy rain are nearly

stationary.

 

Locations impacted include...

Washington, Sigourney, Williamsburg, Kalona, Wellman, North English,

What Cheer, Delta, Keswick, South English, Parnell, Millersburg,

Harper, Kinross, Richmond, Keota, West Chester, Webster, Thornburg

and Gibson.

 

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these thunderstorms. Minor

flooding of low lying areas, creeks, streams and urban areas is

possible. If you encounter water over a roadway, do not drive

through it.

 

Up to two inches of rain has fallen in some areas. A flash flood

warning may be needed.

 

 

I sure hope it pans out! It was slowly drifting my way all night. Shouldn't need a flash flood warning at my place so dry as it is! It's just to my west attm and appears like it may be weakening and shifting south in the last minute.

[Stormy]

While I wait to see if it actually could rain, here are some pics I took last evening following the rain.

 

 

 

 

The oats has been harvested. Will mow it shorter once it dries and bale the straw and sell it. In a few weeks this field should be green again as alfalfa hay was planted with the oats. Actually, the oats was a nurse crop for the alfalfa. Hay is more valuable and we are expecting yet one cutting of it in the fall.

[Stormy]

Some more photos of the storms.

 

 

 

[Stormy]

Well I should've stayed in bed. Can't believe my luck. Just insane how it really is pooping out at the last second! It's raining, but nothing like it had been all night where 1” to 2”+ was falling to the wsw.

 

The highest reports I saw from last evening were in my county with 2.80” near Oakdale and around 2” in Iowa City etc. I remember models a number of days ago were showing a band of rainfall near my area. They kinda got that right though.

[CentralNebWeather]

The NWS point forecast is no longer accurate at all. It's a joke how wrong it's been lately. Had 1-2 inches of rain in it all day and we've maybe had a quarter inch with no thunderstorm activity to speak of. STILL has 70 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms while there's absolutely nothing on radar.

 

The NWS has done a very lousy job in general lately, and this was about the biggest bust of them all. The worst part is they don't seem to care as they offer no explanation on the discussion page.

Spot on. 0.0” here when rain chances were 90% with 1-2” forecasted. Been a lot of busts this summer.

[Tom]

Spot on. 0.0” here when rain chances were 90% with 1-2” forecasted. Been a lot of busts this summer.

What's worse in your opinion...when models/NWS bust in the snow dept or rain dept in summer???  IMO, it hurts more in the snow dept but that's just me!  This is the summer where we have seen "The Haves and The Have-Not's".  Wasn't last Summer a banner year for your area??  It sucks missing out on rain esp during the hottest part of summer and when the farmers need it most.  Hopefully the mid week system dumps some appreciable rainfall.  It looks like the best opportunity due to the slow movement of this storm system.

 

00z Euro is very generous...

[Tom]

Yesterday, felt like it was the hottest day of the Summer by far this year.  ORD topped out at 96F with the DP hovering in the low 70's.  If it wasn't for the gusty SW winds, my goodness, it would have sucked!  Besides that, it was a fun time at my sisters place with all the kiddos playing in her back yard.  They have a great set up and the kids had fun playing in the water slide.  

 

Later in the evening, right around sun set, a weakening line of storms was approaching from the NW and I caught some beautiful views of the sun shining behind the "mushroom-like" storm clouds.  On the drive home, while driving north, the shelf cloud was a sight to see and looked very dark and angry.  Didn't get a lot of rain but had some gusty winds.  I believe ORD had a 44mph wind gust and only 0.06" of rain but my area recorded a bit more than that.  Thankfully, today the CF makes its way through and ushers in lower DP's by the evening.  I'm really looking forward to tomorrow and the rest of the week.

[Tom]

Southern Stream Dream???  Our southern/central members are looking rather active this week while the northern members take a break from the action.  It's amazing how quickly the KC region turned very wet and now I believe is above normal in the precip dept.  Surely, on the maps below you will see the dry pockets where a few of our members are located (Central Neb, E NE, IA, N IL, MI).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Fired up an August thread....

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2213-august-2020-observations-and-discussion/

[CentralNebWeather]

What's worse in your opinion...when models/NWS bust in the snow dept or rain dept in summer??? IMO, it hurts more in the snow dept but that's just me! This is the summer where we have seen "The Haves and The Have-Not's". Wasn't last Summer a banner year for your area?? It sucks missing out on rain esp during the hottest part of summer and when the farmers need it most. Hopefully the mid week system dumps some appreciable rainfall. It looks like the best opportunity due to the slow movement of this storm system.

 

00z Euro is very generous...

I would definitely say snow department for sure. Last few summers have been banner. This is such a frustrating summer in how close the rain is. 30-45 miles north and south of our region are much above normal rainfall. Last night was just another in a long line of misses. But what can you do, it’s weather.

[Tom]

[Niko]

I hope this verifies today........

 

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI448 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-280900-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-448 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightHot and very humid conditions will be in place across SoutheastMichigan again today with heat indices in the middle 90s.Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible today withthe more favorable timing between 3 PM and 7 PM. Damaging wind guststo 60 mph and locally heavy rainfall will be the main hazards. Stormmotion will be from west to east at approximately 30 mph.

[Niko]

Been super busy........had to change my computer system from a "LAN" to a "MAN", anyways........

 

 

Its very humid attm, w dew at 74. Skies are partly sunny w temps in the low 80s.

 

 

Btw: Hawaii had a Hurricane Douglas roll on by to their north, but still felt the impact w hvy rainfall and damaging winds.

[Stormy]

What's worse in your opinion...when models/NWS bust in the snow dept or rain dept in summer??? IMO, it hurts more in the snow dept but that's just me! This is the summer where we have seen "The Haves and The Have-Not's". Wasn't last Summer a banner year for your area?? It sucks missing out on rain esp during the hottest part of summer and when the farmers need it most. Hopefully the mid week system dumps some appreciable rainfall. It looks like the best opportunity due to the slow movement of this storm system.

 

00z Euro is very generous...

For me it hurts much more in the summer since I'm a t. storm/heavy rain fan and that's when growing things need and make use of moisture more, plus snow doesn't add that much to the yearly total with winter actually being our dry season. Winter precipitation mostly runs off once soils are frozen and especially during spring thaw. It's good for insulating plants, plus winter wheat etc in some states though, plus it's beautiful. But I'm not really a snow fan anymore and don't mind at all if it misses as that means less cold, and mud once it thaws. I loved snow as a kid and did a lot of sledding etc, but I kinda got over the nastalgia or sentimental feelings of snow. But that'd just me. lol

 

I picked up an additional .20" of rain after midnight bringing my total to .47". My July total is only 1.12" now.

 

BTW, I like the NWS though. It just seems most signs fail during a drought.

[james1976]

My 10 day is low 80s and basically no rain. Boring.

But not much for humidity so that's good.

[Niko]

Just got a huge hvy thundershower. Flooding is a guaranteed! Temp cooled down to 74F. It got windy as well. AHHHHHH, it felt good seeing that windswept torrential rainfall.

[Niko]

Most of the severe weather was in OH state today. A few severe storms also way north of my area, but hey, I will not complaint. I got my share this evening.

[Tom]

Yikes, models are drying up for our NE members...the blocking across the north appears to be getting stronger each run...

[Tom]

It's a wonderful and comfortable morning here with clear skies, calm winds and a glorious sunrise.  Currently 69F/60F and heading up into the upper 80's today.  I looked at my 10-day extended forecast and it's literally the best looking one of the summer season.  My goodness, HP for days and temps in the upper 70's/low 80's.

[james1976]

I can get used to these upper 50s dews

[james1976]

DMX sounds pretty excited on how July ends and August begins. Lol

 

Later this week the steering flow aloft will pick up just a bit

and turn more north northwesterly, allowing our old friend the

northern high pressure area to spill further southward and really

exert its influence on Iowa. By Thursday it should filter through

our forecast area, shoving any clouds/rain and the decrepit

surface trough southward into Missouri and Kansas once more, and

leaving cool, dry, and gorgeous weather for most of Thursday and

through Friday, with highs generally in the lower 80s and

dewpoints in the low to mid-60s. What a way to end July. On

Saturday another surface trough will approach from the northwest,

perhaps generating a few showers and storms across northern Iowa

late Saturday or Saturday night, but with little to no impact.

Behind this trough, relatively cool, dry, and gorgeous weather

will once again be the norm Sunday and Monday. What a way to begin

August.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS North Platte says my area might actually be in the direct path of the rain system on Thursday. We’ll see.

 

https://twitter.com/nwsnorthplatte/status/1288065413016944642?s=21

[james1976]

One thing about this drier air is it warms up quickly. I'm already at 81°. The driest air of the week wont arrive til Thursday however. I guess I could say it is slightly humid right now but compared to what we've been having it's much more comfortable. My extended right now has 79 for Sunday. Bring it

[Niko]

Looks like I have another chance for storms today and that is about it until next wednesday.    

Hazardous Weather OutlookNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI402 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-290815-Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-402 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeastMichigan..DAY ONE...Today and TonightThe potential exists for thunderstorms this evening and tonight asan upper level disturbance tracks across Southeast Michigan. Nosevere weather is expected with storms tracking west to east at 45mph..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through MondayThe potential exists for thunderstorms to redevelop Wednesdayafternoon for areas south of I 96.

[Niko]

Attm, sunny skies w a few cumulus clouds around and temps at 83 and a dew of 58F.  Man, I gotta try and go out later. Too sweet not to.

[CentralNebWeather]

Temp is “only” 83 but the dew is 72. Just finished mowing the yard. I am completely drenched. I would say I’ve sweated more this summer than any in memory. Even when a cold front comes through the humidity remains. Can’t wait for Fall.

[james1976]

Waterloo hit 90 again today. 19th time this year

[james1976]

Sioux City got 2 1/2" of rain this evening from a stalled storm.

[Tom]

It's a warm and somewhat humid morning here with very isolated embedded heavy showers popping up here and there.  Current conditions are 77F/63F.  It's very noticeable how much darker the mornings have gotten since I arrived here on July 3rd.  Almost a month has gone by and the sunrise is about 20 min later and sunset 17 min earlier.  Signs of the SLOW changes of the season. 

 

Speaking of changes, our wx pattern is changing and nearly all of us on here will be enjoying some very delightful late July weather.  Not to mention, we are about to start tracking a Summer time "CO Low"...quite a fascinating system to be able to see the 500mb maps below in mid Summer.

 

 

 

 

[james1976]

After a short break from the mugginess dews are right back up to 70 today. But by Friday back down to 60 and should stay more comfortable for a while.