July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Anti Marine Layer]

55 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Feeling grateful it didn't rain here, haven't had to mow the yard for over a month and would like to not have to for awhile.

Brown grass does not need to be mowed. Neither does fake grass. We have yet to see fake brown grass yet.

[the_convergence_zone]

A single little rain shower has been spotted over West Seattle! 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Huh??

 

I meant last week

[TT-SEA]

72 at SEA already and 69 in North Bend despite lots of clouds.    July troughing. 

[Cold Snap]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Sun is out here now as well... was supposed to be raining all morning but it did not last long.

Yeah I only had a few drops of rain here. Nothing measurable unfortunately.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

72 at SEA already and 69 in North Bend despite lots of clouds.    July troughing. 

66 at OLM with light rain.

[Phil]

Shawnigan’s smoke is back. Nothing like June, but still thick enough to smell and restrict visibility to a few miles.

Can’t recall any summer quite like this. The persistence is absurd, off/on for 6+ weeks now. Grotesque.

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

66 at OLM with light rain.

Looks like that shower has now passed OLM and then sun is coming out... they should catch up soon.

[Phil]

Sun is mostly blocked out now. So pukey.  

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/dc/washingtonmonument/?cam=wamo

[TT-SEA]

On 7/16/2023 at 12:00 PM, TT-SEA said:

Phil!  You always get lucky.  

Now you need it hold for the next 10 days! 

New 12Z ECMWF is less favorable for you at day 10.   

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

New 12Z ECMWF is less favorable for you at day 10.   

I most certainly do not always “get lucky”.

Quite the opposite, actually.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I most certainly do not always “get lucky”.

Quite the opposite, actually.  

But even with ridging and warm 850mb temps it won't be hot by your standards... 76 in Everett on day 9.    Brrrr! 

 

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

But even with ridging and warm 850mb temps it won't be hot by your standards... 76 in Everett on day 9.    Brrrr! 

 

I guess if there any upside it’s that everyone is torching, so I’m still getting the best deal by comparison.

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

66 at OLM with light rain.

3rd runway is likely blocking some of the rain and cloudcover at SEA.

[MossMan]

.27” on the day! I will take it!! Clouds Attempting to break up a bit now. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

.27” on the day! I will take it!! Clouds Attempting to break up a bit now. 

Really jealous!   We just had an actual shower move through here but it was over in minutes and did not add up to anything.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Back in Springfield 74F and mostly sunny.

Wonderful couple of weeks. I will cherish it.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

I guess if there any upside it’s that everyone is torching, so I’m still getting the best deal by comparison.

I feel like the models keep showing "everyone torching", yet that definitely hasn't been the case this summer so far.

 

[HuskyMaestro]

Some crazy heat coming to Rome, Italy. They're beating their hottest temperature of 105F that was set just last summer if this verifies. 

Makes me wonder if Ancient Rome kept recordings of temperatures with the thermoscopes and clepsydras they had and how'd it compare to the Mediterranean region of today. I remember reading Italy used to be more humid and cooler.  

[ShawniganLake]

29 minutes ago, Phil said:

Shawnigan’s smoke is back. Nothing like June, but still thick enough to smell and restrict visibility to a few miles.

Can’t recall any summer quite like this. The persistence is absurd, off/on for 6+ weeks now. Grotesque.

No smoke here.  72F sunny and breezy.  Across Canada 25 million acres have burned so far this year. 

[Front Ranger]

One place in the US that definitely has been torching recently is the Southwest. Looks like Phoenix topped out at 118 the other day. They've hit that temp many times, but I believe they've only been hotter than that 3 times, June 1990 (122), June 2013 (119), and July 1995 (121).

They also had a low of 95 this am. Just brutal.

[Phil]

23 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I feel like the models keep showing "everyone torching", yet that definitely hasn't been the case this summer so far.

 

LR guidance has been running warm everywhere, but not substantially so.

Also the pattern in June was very different from the current pattern, so I’m not sure they should be melded together like this. June ran a -2.5 departure here, July has been +1 to date.

[Chewbacca Defense]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Why would you even fly that? They're like an hour apart by driving.

I fly Bellingham to Seattle whenever I fly, for multiple reasons:  I don't have to deal with Seattle traffic, and I don't have to deal with insane security lines, and the trip is usually faster.  It is getting a little worse as Alliegent and Southwest start offering more flights, but still better than Seattle.  Oh, and its only 15-20 minutes from my house.

 

Depending on the winds and which direction you are going, it can be a 20 minute flight wheels up to wheels down.  If the winds are against you its a 30-40 minute flight.

[Phil]

EPS control run looks very different from the operational ECMWF.

When that happens it usually means the model is struggling with something in the pattern. Worth noting.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

LR guidance has been running warm everywhere, but not substantially so.

Also the pattern in June was very different from the current pattern, so I’m not sure they should be melded together like this. June ran a -2.5 departure here, July has been +1 to date.

True, the cool weather has been centered smack in the middle of the country this month, quite different than June. I have been very lucky this summer (today's heat aside).

[Chewbacca Defense]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

.27” on the day! I will take it!! Clouds Attempting to break up a bit now. 

We got nothing up here, and its mostly clear skies.   The sun came out about an hour ago, and its up to 74 degrees.

[Phil]

The heat index reached 121°F today in St. Simons. Brutal month down there, same pattern that’s causing gulf SSTs to approach 100°F. Just absurd.

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

True, the cool weather has been centered smack in the middle of the country this month, quite different than June. I have been very lucky this summer (today's heat aside).

Wow, yeah you’re in the sweet spot there.

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

EPS control run looks very different from the operational ECMWF.

When that happens it usually means the model is struggling with something in the pattern. Worth noting.

Tim says when in doubt, trust the EPS.

[Cold Snap]

120 degrees at 1am. That is absolutely insane.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

17 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

No 100 degrees yet.

It’s coming but probably not until August.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Really jealous!   We just had an actual shower move through here but it was over in minutes and did not add up to anything.  

Randy truly lives in a blessed location.

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow, yeah you’re in the sweet spot there.

Yeah WY/CO have been the states to be in this summer. 

DEN is on pace for the coolest summer since 2009, and that was the coolest summer since 1967. Which is the coolest summer in airport history.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim says when in doubt, trust the EPS.

I figured it was troughier since he didn’t post about it.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah WY/CO have been the states to be in this summer. 

DEN is on pace for the coolest summer since 2009, and that was the coolest summer since 1967. Which is the coolest summer in airport history.

Lucky. June started off like 2009 here, but July has diverged in a major way.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

28 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I fly Bellingham to Seattle whenever I fly, for multiple reasons:  I don't have to deal with Seattle traffic, and I don't have to deal with insane security lines, and the trip is usually faster.  It is getting a little worse as Alliegent and Southwest start offering more flights, but still better than Seattle.  Oh, and its only 15-20 minutes from my house.

When I lived in Bellingham I did the same.

Tried the shuttle from Bellingham to KSEA once. Used their online reservation system, it said I had made my reservation, then ten minutes later it emails me saying my reservation had been cancelled due to credit card issues (same card worked just fine for everyone else). Tried it again with a different card, same result. Gave up and made my reservation on the phone manually.

When the day came to catch the shuttle, the bus didn't show up. At T+10 minutes I call them and ask why the delay.

“There is no delay today.”

“I’m waiting at (name of stop) and the shuttle has not been here yet.”

“Oh, we had you down as being at (name of some other stop). Since there were no riders at your stop, the bus skipped it. The bus now in Skagit County.”

So I end up driving it at the last minute. Which, of course, involves fighting Seattle traffic and Seattle security lines. Thankfully, I still made my flight.

And the cherry on top of the sundae is that they ended up charging my cards for those failed online registrations and I then had to fight with them to get the charges reversed.

Never again!

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

120 degrees at 1am. That is absolutely insane.

Maybe it's in a slightly different location, but I'm seeing 109 at 1 am, and bottoming out at 105 at 4 am: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=DEVC1 And 120 at 1 pm today.

Still absolutely nuts, of course. Looks like their record hot low temp is 107.

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Lucky. June started off like 2009 here, but July has diverged in a major way.

I'd be shocked if August ends up anywhere near as cool as 2009 here. Just hoping it doesn't torch like the last few.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

66 at OLM with light rain.

73 and sunny at OLM... was up to 75 between the hours as well.  They caught up. 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I figured it was troughier since he didn’t post about it.

Except all the times I do post when runs come in cooler!   Many such examples in just the last few days.    I am not always watching every run as it comes out.