July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[TT-SEA]

Well... the EPS was definitely cold.  I was angry because summer is over and praying no one would notice how cold it was.   I was sure I could hide it.   But the cat is out of the bag now.    I have to face the reality that it's going to be depressing and not summer-like going forward.  Phil busted me.  

 

[BLI snowman]

40 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I fly Bellingham to Seattle whenever I fly, for multiple reasons:  I don't have to deal with Seattle traffic, and I don't have to deal with insane security lines, and the trip is usually faster.  It is getting a little worse as Alliegent and Southwest start offering more flights, but still better than Seattle.  Oh, and its only 15-20 minutes from my house.

 

Depending on the winds and which direction you are going, it can be a 20 minute flight wheels up to wheels down.  If the winds are against you its a 30-40 minute flight.

Yeah and I think it's a different dynamic if you live there vs. if you're visiting and had a rental car that you had to return anyways. In the case of the latter I would probably just suck it up and make the drive down to SEA. But when I lived in Bellingham, I absolutely flew BLI-SEA for connections rather than choosing to drive to SEA and leave my car.  

[TT-SEA]

I have been kind of slow on checking out the models.  I figure if Phil and Jared aren't are on here telling us how cold it will be in the PNW then the runs must be warm.   You won't hear a peep from them when models trend warmer.   Unfortunately I do mention when they trend colder.  

[FroYoBro]

16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Well... the EPS was definitely cold.  I was angry because summer is over and praying no one would notice how cold it was.   I was sure I could hide it.   But the cat is out of the bag now.    I have to face the reality that it's going to be depressing and not summer-like going forward.  Phil busted me.  

 

I wish I could give this comment TWO lol reactions. Good stuff.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I have been kind of slow on checking out the models.  I figure if Phil and Jared aren't are on here telling us how cold it will be in the PNW then the runs must be warm.   You won't hear a peep from them when models trend warmer.   Unfortunately I do mention when they trend colder.  

This would be believable except a) you literally posted hot day 10 of the Euro as it came out, ignoring the cooler weather it showed beforehand, and b) we know you.

[TT-SEA]

55 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim says when in doubt, trust the EPS.

All the models show that trough just glancing us early next week.   It barely registers in the temp charts though because that set up is also quite sunny with the a trough passing by to the north and west.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

This would be believable except a) you literally posted hot day 10 of the Euro as it came out, ignoring the cooler weather it showed beforehand, and b) we know you.

I posted a day 10 map from the ECMWF to troll Phil... and as a follow-up to my troll post about a trough in the same period yesterday and how lucky he is.   It was not meant to be analysis of the entire run.    

[ShawniganLake]

73 and sunny here.  Today was the day of the “big chill” in the models.  We had about a +5F on the low this morning though so today will most likely still end up above average here.  

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This would be believable except a) you literally posted hot day 10 of the Euro as it came out, ignoring the cooler weather it showed beforehand, and b) we know you.

Actually... I didn't ignore the ECMWF.   The day I posted was one of the coolest days.   All the cooler weather??   Do you mean the next 24 hours?   

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

73 and sunny here.  Today was the day of the “big chill” in the models.  We had about a +5F on the low this morning though so today will most likely still end up above average here.  

Go back to the first weekend in July... Phil was hyping the crap out of this troughing period.    It came!   I mentioned it might be just a quick ULL and Phil said maybe not. 

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All the models show that trough just glancing us early next week.   It barely registers in the temp charts though because that set up is also quite sunny with the a trough passing by to the north and west.

Eh, we'll see. SEA is stuck at 73 at 2 pm in mid July today, despite plenty of sun.

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

73 and sunny here.  Today was the day of the “big chill” in the models.  We had about a +5F on the low this morning though so today will most likely still end up above average here.  

Probably going to be a good number of midnight lows tonight.

[Deweydog]

OMG! This day is crazy. The sun is out, then it isn’t. Then it is, then it isn’t. What gives! Lol!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Eh, we'll see. SEA is stuck at 73 at 2 pm in mid July today, despite plenty of sun.

Probably still get to 76 or 77... which is with a trough actually moving inland as opposed to passing by offshore which is inherently a warmer set up.   Seems like you would know this... but maybe not.   

Personally... I would like to avoid heat and smoke.   If you think I am hiding from the fact that a trough will be close next weekend and maybe next week then you are very wrong.   I am cheering for it.  Its pretty important to keep it pleasant.   

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

When I lived in Bellingham I did the same.

Tried the shuttle from Bellingham to KSEA once. Used their online reservation system, it said I had made my reservation, then ten minutes later it emails me saying my reservation had been cancelled due to credit card issues (same card worked just fine for everyone else). Tried it again with a different card, same result. Gave up and made my reservation on the phone manually.

When the day came to catch the shuttle, the bus didn't show up. At T+10 minutes I call them and ask why the delay.

“There is no delay today.”

“I’m waiting at (name of stop) and the shuttle has not been here yet.”

“Oh, we had you down as being at (name of some other stop). Since there were no riders at your stop, the bus skipped it. The bus now in Skagit County.”

So I end up driving it at the last minute. Which, of course, involves fighting Seattle traffic and Seattle security lines. Thankfully, I still made my flight.

And the cherry on top of the sundae is that they ended up charging my cards for those failed online registrations and I then had to fight with them to get the charges reversed.

Never again!

Wow, that really sucks!  Fortunately I've had decent luck with them, but that said they are a last resort.  It's really not that cheap, and they make so many stops along the way, I don't have the patience for that.  I want to get on the road and go.

[MossMan]

Partly sunny now with a cool wind blowing…The air smells so fresh and amazing! 

[Omegaraptor]

Gotta say, NWS Seattle should employ Tim. They could really use some of his long range forecasting prowess over there.

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Personally... I would like to avoid heat and smoke.   If you think I am hiding from the fact that a trough will be close next weekend and maybe next week then you are very wrong.   I am cheering for it.  Its pretty important to keep it pleasant.   

A couple days ago it was looking like the trough might stay further offshore and heat could quickly return. That's looking less likely now.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

A couple days ago it was looking like the trough might stay further offshore and heat could quickly return. That's looking less likely now.

We are perfectly riding the goldilocks zone.    Summery temps and lots of sunshine without extreme heat and thankfully very little smoke.    I am much more worried about being inundated with smoke than it being too cold.   Too cold isn't even a thought.   Too hot means we also won't be able to breath... could become a nightmare given the situation in BC.   We had a smoke nightmare last September and October and its still fresh in our minds.

[Deweydog]

I feel Tim’s use of the terms “Goldilocks” and “Summer Perfection” should a drinking game.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

I feel Tim’s use of the terms “Goldilocks” and “Summer Perfection” should a drinking game.

Its a balancing act!   This warm season has been pretty impressive in that regard... consistent warmth without extreme heat.   The only thing out of balance is the lack of a few rain events.   Today failed... except for Randy of course.

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I feel Tim’s use of the terms “Goldilocks” and “Summer Perfection” should a drinking game.

Phil would probably win  

[TT-SEA]

Sun is out... 75 degrees.   Patio cushions back down.   They don't make July troughs like they used to.    Unlikely there will be any rain the rest of the month here.   Today was by far the best chance.  

[TT-SEA]

Also 75 at SEA and OLM on the hour.   I knew OLM could catch up if they really tried.   Jared strangely did not post any more OLM temp updates so I had to check on my own.   

[Deweydog]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Phil would probably win  

Upside of having had Covid 31 times in six years is a liver that’s ROCK SOLID.

[TacomaWx]

Not very cool here today…76 after a low of 59. Probably will be a midnight low but still sad that a “cooldown” nowadays is just average summer weather. 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not very cool here today…76 after a low of 59. Probably will be a midnight low but still sad that a “cooldown” nowadays is just average summer weather. 

Jared wants us to know the next cool down will actually be quite meaningful.   Even though 850mb temps are colder today than any day in the next 2 weeks per the models.

Get out your jackets for the next cool down late in the weekend per the 18Z GFS.    Sort of interesting that the 2 people really selling cold troughing on here live thousands of miles away.  

[Front Ranger]

The best thing about Tim is the constant stream of new material.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Jared wants us to know the next cool down will actually be quite meaningful.   Even though 850mb temps are colder today than any day in the next 2 weeks per the models.

Get out your jackets for the next cool down late in the weekend per the 18Z GFS.    Sort of interesting that the 2 people really selling cold troughing on here live thousands of miles away.  

I haven't once said that. Guess that's your interpretation of statements like this.

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

A couple days ago it was looking like the trough might stay further offshore and heat could quickly return. That's looking less likely now.

 

[Cloud]

I’m trying real hard to understand this

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I haven't once said that. Guess that's your interpretation of statements like this.

 

It's your blue maps.  The EPS shows 80 in Seattle on the day of your last map.  What are you trying to advertise?   That it won't be 95 degrees?   Amazing.  We are getting into the mid to maybe upper 70s today with these cold 850mb temps.   

[Cloud]

Couple of days remaining for 9pm sunset for the year! And really start accelerating the amount of light loss. We’ll then be having plenty of troughs discussions.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Cloud said:

Couple of days remaining for 9pm sunset for the year! And really start accelerating the amount of light loss. We’ll then be having plenty of troughs discussions.

I have been working night shifts for about a month started on June 23rd. I have noticed that the days are getting a little shorter now. 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It's your blue maps.  The EPS shows 80 in Seattle on the day of your last map.  What are you trying to advertise?   That it won't be 95 degrees?   Amazing.  We are getting into the mid to maybe upper 70s today with these cold 850mb temps.   

I don't choose the crayons, Tim.

[TacomaWx]

Yesterday was +80 day number 17 on the year. We typically get about 23 each year so by the end of the month we should be past that. 2021 and 2022 had 36 and 32 days above 80. 
 As for +85 days we’re at 6. We had 17 total last year and 13 in 2021. Typical number is 8 per year. We will probably get a couple more +85 days before the end of the month as well. Still haven’t hit 90 yet IMBY. 

[Cloud]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I have been working night shifts for about a month started on June 23rd. I have noticed that the days are getting a little shorter now. 

Today was my first day transferring to 3rd shift at Boeing (11pm-6am). A part of me really wanted to take advantage of any amount of daylight we have here in the fall and winter. Before, when I typically get out from work at 4 or 5… it’s already dark and there isn’t much I can do. 

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The best thing about Tim is the constant stream of new material.

You’ve picked up your game of late too!

[TacomaWx]

5 minutes ago, Cloud said:

Today was my first day transferring to 3rd shift at Boeing (11pm-6am). A part of me really wanted to take advantage of any amount of daylight we have here in the fall and winter. Before, when I typically get out from work at 4 or 5… it’s already dark and there isn’t much I can do. 

Yeah it sucks working nights right in the middle of the summer. Thankfully I get 3-4 days off at a time the next couple weeks after working a lot of 50-60 hour weeks at the start of it. It wouldn’t bother me as much if it was during January working nights but it just sucks this time of year. Hard to sleep when it’s bright outside  or do much on a workday when you sleep all day. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

You’ve picked up your game of late too!

Remember that time you highlighted the exact same 85+ day stat for PDX on back to back days?

[Deweydog]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Remember that time you highlighted the exact same 85+ day stat for PDX on back to back days?

I do!

They’re stuck at 26.

No telling when they’ll move the needle again.