July 2023 PNW Observations and Discussions

[Phil]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There was no human civilization around halfway back through the Holocene!

What? Your definition of human civilization certainly isn’t the one I’m familiar with!

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

A bit out of topic but what is Jury Duty and how can I get out of it I suffer social anxiety I can't go to big gatherings I get seizures. Then with my Asperger's doing anything else not nature or weather related destroys my mind 

Just tell them no matter what the evidence says you’re going with guilty. That should get you off it quick

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

A bit out of topic but what is Jury Duty and how can I get out of it I suffer social anxiety I can't go to big gatherings I get seizures. Then with my Asperger's doing anything else not nature or weather related destroys my mind 

People get excused from services for medical reasons all the time. Shouldn’t be too tough.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

What? Your definition of human civilization certainly isn’t the one I’m familiar with!

Holocene began roughly around 9.700 BC.   I think humans were here at the start let alone the middle.  

[Phil]

In fact the first great human civilizations/empires were spawned from the Holocene thermal maximum.

Coincided with the African humid period, minima in perennial NH snow/ice cover, and highest latitude encroachment of the humid continental/subtropical climate zone since the Eemian interglacial, enabling the spread of agriculture and mass migration around the world.

[Phil]

This in contrast with the last glacial maximum, at which point there may have been fewer than 10,000 humans remaining worldwide!

We nearly we went extinct. That genetic bottleneck is really something..it’s a fluke we even survived.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 minutes ago, MWG said:

Welp we are in this till middle of next week.

Yeah it's hideous out there. 

[lowlandsnow]

New article by Cliff Mass Cliff Mass Weather Blog

[MWG]

Fire in my area ugh. I'm not close to it but this is horrible.

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

What? Your definition of human civilization certainly isn’t the one I’m familiar with!

“Civilization describes a complex way of life characterized by urban areas, shared methods of communication, administrative infrastructure, and division of labor.”

Just because there were humans around does not mean there was civilization.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/key-components-civilization/

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Holocene began roughly around 9.700 BC.   I think humans were here at the start let alone the middle.  

And we survived climate change at rates/magnitudes far beyond the present, with none of our cushy modern benefits.

During the younger dryas, it is likely that sea levels rose as much in 1 decade as they have since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Good chance the “great flood” referenced in many religions dates back to that time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Holocene began roughly around 9.700 BC.   I think humans were here at the start let alone the middle.  

Humans, yes. Civilization, no.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Humans, yes. Civilization, no.

So...are you arguing that the reason there wasn't advanced human civilization then was because of the warm climate?

[TacomaWx]

80 #19 on the year. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

So...are you arguing that the reason there wasn't advanced human civilization then was because of the warm climate?

I'm arguing that climate stage of the sort that will happen will push the planet out of the range that has sustained our civilization.

Past civilizations have ended when local environmental changes pushed things outside the range of being able to sustain them.

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

“Civilization describes a complex way of life characterized by urban areas, shared methods of communication, administrative infrastructure, and division of labor.”

Just because there were humans around does not mean there was civilization.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/key-components-civilization/

Ever heard of the Sumerian civilization? They invented basically all of the criteria by which the term “civilization” refers to.  

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Humans, yes. Civilization, no.

My brother..  https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumer

The Holocene thermal maximum is what produced the first human civilizations. Good chance they wouldn’t have emerged without it.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Ever heard of the Sumerian civilization? They invented basically all of the criteria by which the term “civilization” refers to.  

Try reading the page I linked.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If Joe Rogan is correct there were civilizations long before SUMER.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phil said:

Bro. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumer

About halfway through the Holocene, and it ended when local environmental changes (caused by the presence of the civilization there) pushed things outside the ranges capable of sustaining that civilization.

There were no civilizations around at the start of the Holocene.

[lowlandsnow]

Domestication of animals and crops took place around 8500-10,000 BC. First city of a thousand people around 7,000 BC Jericho.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

Domestication of animals and crops took place around 8500-10,000 BC. First city of a thousand people around 7,000 BC Jericho.

Civilization is more than that, though.

[YahRaEl]

Sumerians are the Annunakis which include the Elohims and Nephilims. Assyrians, Akkadians and Babylonians was also apart. 

[Cloud]

26 minutes ago, ChrisAmunRA said:

A bit out of topic but what is Jury Duty and how can I get out of it I suffer social anxiety I can't go to big gatherings I get seizures. Then with my Asperger's doing anything else not nature or weather related destroys my mind 

You can provide medical and they’ll excuse you. My last jury duty, they had us (about 30 ppl) sat in the room the entire day only to came in right before 5pm and said we’re no longer needed as they settled before trial.

So the initial call may be quite a large group before they actually elect a panel. 

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

About halfway through the Holocene, and it ended when local environmental changes (caused by the presence of the civilization there) pushed things outside the ranges capable of sustaining that civilization.

There were no civilizations around at the start of the Holocene.

 I never said there were civilizations at the start of the Holocene. 

I explicitly wrote “halfway back thru the Holocene”. In reference to the Holocene thermal maximum, which was centered 7,000-5000 years before present. Those were the exact words I used.

So now you agree?

[YahRaEl]

They give the Most High (God) name as El Elyon or Elyown El, aka Anu or Amun-RA as known in Egypt. would have love to experience the weather back at that time especially when the flooding happened the one that destroyed Atlantis. 

 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I'm arguing that climate stage of the sort that will happen will push the planet out of the range that has sustained our civilization.

Past civilizations have ended when local environmental changes pushed things outside the range of being able to sustain them.

Ok, but neither of those things are evidence that we won't be able to survive or even thrive with future warming.

Using your logic, I could say: "the earth has been colder for the majority of human history, but in the last 100 years which, has been among the warmest in human history, the population has exploded far faster than any other comparable period. Heat is obviously good for humans!"

I think there are other, larger factors at play.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

About halfway through the Holocene, and it ended when local environmental changes (caused by the presence of the civilization there) pushed things outside the ranges capable of sustaining that civilization.

There were no civilizations around at the start of the Holocene.

In case it wasn’t clear, that’s exactly what I said, and you even quoted me as such.

You’ve backtracked entirely now.

[YahRaEl]

Look at 4biddenknowlegde (Billy Carson) he goes all into it even weather history at that time

[Deweydog]

How cud people have been around before the planet which is only about 6,000 years old?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was on a jury once. It was beyond boring, some property contract dispute. I've also forgotten jury service, my wife just blows off jury summons, so either way I think you are good. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Ok, but neither of those things are evidence that we won't be able to survive or even thrive with future warming.

Using your logic, I could say: "the earth has been colder for the majority of human history, but in the last 100 years which, has been among the warmest in human history, the population has exploded far faster than any other comparable period. Heat is obviously good for humans!"

I think there are other, larger factors at play.

There is really nothing particularly special about our global technological civilization, other than our particular attachment to it.

Other civilizations have suffered ecological collapse, and so will ours.

[YahRaEl]

The Egyptians could tell weather better than any forecasters now and they didn't need models or anything. Tho they probably did have high advanced technology to tell them. But they was also very connected with Nature.

 

[Front Ranger]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

There is really nothing particularly special about our global technological civilization, other than our particular attachment to it.

Other civilizations have suffered ecological collapse, and so will ours.

That's nice, but you ignored my point about your logic. 

Just like when you complain about the deniers using local events to challenge climate change alarmists, you can't have it just one way.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

That’s literally what I said, and you quoted me as such. Seems like you’ve backtracked entirely.

I concede that particular point.

Still, that world did not sustain OUR civilization.

I still contend that it is exceptionally foolish to think our civilization could withstand the likely amount of warming it is set to create, and in a short time (geologically speaking) at that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

That's nice, but you ignored my point about your logic. 

Just like when you complain about the deniers using local events to challenge climate change alarmists, you can't have it just one way.

Obviously, we're special, and the rules that applied to other, lesser civilizations do not apply to us.

[lowlandsnow]

20 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

“Civilization describes a complex way of life characterized by urban areas, shared methods of communication, administrative infrastructure, and division of labor.”

Just because there were humans around does not mean there was civilization.

https://education.nationalgeographic.org/resource/key-components-civilization/

By that definition then Çatalhöyük in 6500 BC was probably the first civilization with a population between 3k-10k almost impossible to know for sure though.

[MossMan]

Wow! 45+ new posts since I was last on here just a bit ago! Was there a 18z GFS alert or something? Lows in the single digits at hour 300? DJ and Jim showing back up? 
 

Did anyone ever find Kayla? 

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I concede that particular point.

Still, that world did not sustain OUR civilization.

I still contend that it is exceptionally foolish to think our civilization could withstand the likely amount of warming it is set to create, and in a short time (geologically speaking) at that.

That’s a different argument.

I agree, it is debatable whether or not our “modern” civilization would suffer or benefit should we return to the climate of the Holocene thermal maximum.

I suspect the rate of change (often referred to as “transient response time”) is of far greater importance than the magnitude of change (often referred to as “climate sensitivity”).

And since it’s probably a state-dependent variable, it’s unlikely we’ll ever be able to predict it with any precision. All we can do is prepare for the worst case, even if it’s not the “likely” outcome.

But doing so requires collective willpower, which will not exist if those pushing for it continue spew false, catastrophist prophecy.

[YahRaEl]

1W LRC forecast thinking Cooler and maybe Wetter starting Middle of August and on out thru all September.