August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Masterclass troll move here  

 in all seriousness though I don’t think Tim or anyone on this forum is part of some wealthy forum hierarchy looking down on the poor people on the forum. I don’t really ever see that being part of the discussion. I’ve never felt that Tim or randy posting lake pictures made me feel like a poor loser being laughed at. 

It's not the lake pictures...it's the SNOW pics.

[Phishy Wx]

Fuggggg

 

[TT-SEA]

Satellite shows the smoke from the fire in the north Cascades drifting eastward this morning.    Smoke models show that the smoke down in western Oregon will generally be pushed south over the next couple of days... but the southern WV might be too close to the action to get out of the smoke.  

 

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Never doubt the king.

Right, but at the same time the Euro has been a little too cool for Seattle area - while GFS has been a little too hot.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Right, but at the same time the Euro has been a little too cool for Seattle area - while GFS has been a little too hot.

Overall there has been a noticeable improvement with the ECMWF surface temps for the Puget Sound area since the last upgrade.   The cool bias is basically gone... despite running cool during this heat wave.  

[GobBluth]

Portland -2 from yesterday, but now they have the winds coming out of the E.

[Front Ranger]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Overall there has been a noticeable improvement with the ECMWF surface temps for the Puget Sound area since the last upgrade.   The cool bias is basically gone... despite running cool during this heat wave.  

When was the upgrade again? Seems like it was since last winter...if so, will be interesting to see how it performs during cold waves.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

When was the upgrade again? Seems like it was since last winter...if so, will be interesting to see how it performs during cold waves.

I think it was actually in May.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

I think it was actually in May.

IIRC the EPS was updated June 27th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gets kind of old being right all the time doesn’t it? Basically dream up the wildest worse case scenario and it will happen. 

Yeah it really does. I want our family to get away from this nightmare so badly.

[YahRaEl]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

IIRC the EPS was updated June 27th.

Yeah just looked it up June 27th

[YahRaEl]

Euro on my Windyapp has actually been pretty decent on temp forecast last few days here at Eastside Tacoma. GFS showing to hot calling for 99° today while Euro shows 91°

[YahRaEl]

I notice Cliff Mass is becoming a fan of using TWC and NBM on his posts lately. Not sure what to make out of NBM definitely better than GFS but not sure if it's Euro good. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

I notice Cliff Mass is becoming a fan of using TWC and NBM on his posts lately. Not sure what to make out of NBM definitely better than GFS but not sure if it's Euro good. 

Portland NWS rode with the NBM back in February and failed hard. 

Edited August 15, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[MossMan]

Deep blue skies here. 

[GobBluth]

25 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

Portland -2 from yesterday, but now they have the winds coming out of the E.

Now they've bounced +1 to yesterday. Crazy.

[Deweydog]

GFS is on the struggle bus for this weekend.

[Dave]

This totally sucks sweaty ballsacks. Easily the worst smoke since 2020.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Dave said:

This totally sucks sweaty ballsacks. Easily the worst smoke since 2020.

Just awful and getting worse. My lungs hurt so bad and it's making my head hurt where I had my brain surgeries. I really hope someone can help me. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

GFS is on the struggle bus for this weekend.

Once again shows 100 in Portland on Sunday.   

[Rubus Leucodermis]

35 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Yeah it really does. I want our family to get away from this nightmare so badly.

It’s worldwide. You can’t.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Once again shows 100 in Portland on Sunday.   

Is it taking the cooling from smoke into account?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

It’s worldwide. You can’t.

Air quality this bad nationally?

[TT-SEA]

12Z GEM is much less troughy over the weekend compared to its 00Z run.

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

GFS is on the struggle bus for this weekend.

it's always on the struggle bus

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Is it taking the cooling from smoke into account?

Not sure there would be much smoke in Portland and Seattle unless we get some new fires.    General flow would keep smoke farther south.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Air quality this bad nationally?

Ask @Phil about what the smoke was like earlier this summer in his backyard.

[Phishy Wx]

this perception of 'delayed seasons' again

 

later springs (last year), deeper in the summer heat waves ((this is only like the 5th time in Spokane history since 1889, it's taken this late to reach 100 (still hasn't but should today), most recent was 2008)).  curious if fall/freezes are late too this year

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

this perception of 'delayed seasons' again

later springs (last year), deeper in the summer heat waves ((this is only like the 5th time in Spokane history since 1889, it's taken this late to reach 100 (still hasn't but should today), most recent was 2008)).  curious if fall/freezes are late too this year

I don’t think the onset of the fall rains will be as delayed this year.

[GobBluth]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Once again shows 100 in Portland on Sunday.   

Canadian model doing a similar evolution. First trough just doesn't dig deep enough to fully absorb the cut off off the California coast.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not sure there would be much smoke in Portland and Seattle unless we get some new fires.    General flow would keep smoke farther south.

Current red flag warnings:

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Ask @Phil about what the smoke was like earlier this summer in his backyard.

For how long? Was it so bad that it burned his lungs inside his house for days on end? Has he had multiple brain surgeries that are exacerbating the problem?

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

this perception of 'delayed seasons' again

 

later springs (last year), deeper in the summer heat waves ((this is only like the 5th time in Spokane history since 1889, it's taken this late to reach 100 (still hasn't but should today), most recent was 2008)).  curious if fall/freezes are late too this year

According to @Phil, fall will start the first weeks of September

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Current red flag warnings:

This sucks so much. I just want this to end.

[Dave]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just awful and getting worse. My lungs hurt so bad and it's making my head hurt where I had my brain surgeries. I really hope someone can help me. 

At least it should be short lived. Winds should shift to onshore later today. I won't be venturing outside much today. 

[Phishy Wx]

all that shiit smoke will be over here soon and settle in, I hate this time of year.  headed to the east coast (SC) in a week and again in October.  can't wait

[the_convergence_zone]

I don't think western WA will have any major smoke problems in the next 7-10 days. The main issue is the smoke from that Sourdough fire has an easy pathway to drain into eastern Skagit/Whatcom counties at night. Too much westerly flow for the Oregon fires to be a problem, but I bet the trough over the weekend pulls that smoke into eastern WA. 

[the_convergence_zone]

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

According to @Phil, fall will start the first weeks of September

Other than last year, was there ever a year where fall didn't start in the first few weeks of September? 

He is predicting a rapid transition so I'm expecting a good storm cycle by September 15, otherwise it's a bust. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Just awful and getting worse. My lungs hurt so bad and it's making my head hurt where I had my brain surgeries. I really hope someone can help me. 

I hope your inbox is full of apologies from all the people who have mocked your prescient predictions. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

For how long? Was it so bad that it burned his lungs inside his house for days on end? Has he had multiple brain surgeries that are exacerbating the problem?

Remember when he claimed this summer was going to be cooler? Cooler than what? HELL?!