September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

49 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Earlier? What about now?

It’s snowing now. 

[Deweydog]

8 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

So moving is still on the table?

Big time, but not in the way we envisioned a few months ago. It’s been kind of a crazy year and the Spokane move is dead in the water. Kind of a bummer due to the circumstances, but it coincidently worked out well for my wife who received essentially the same promotion we were going to move to Spokane for. So……. As this year has been an exercise in embrace the suck, we’re actually going to be moving about four miles in probably April or May.

[MossMan]

Fun! 

[TT-SEA]

21 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Big time, but not in the way we envisioned a few months ago. It’s been kind of a crazy year and the Spokane move is dead in the water. Kind of a bummer due to the circumstances, but it coincidently worked out well for my wife who received essentially the same promotion we were going to move to Spokane for. So……. As this year has been an exercise in embrace the suck, we’re actually going to be moving about four miles in probably April or May.

4 miles... nice.   Hopefully much more snow!

[YahRaEl]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

The world will be here but we’ll all be dead. So cheer up!

2025 will be it!!! 

[YahRaEl]

Got up to 69° here at Eastside Tacoma should be 6-7° warmer tomorrow afternoon. 

[T-Town]

37 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

2025 will be it!!! 

Hmm… I should probably retire then. My 401K will definitely last that long. 

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

Do you remember the 12/1/21 eastern WA foehn “heat wave”?

Winthrop broke its all time December record by 16 degrees with that one, IIRC. From 54 to 70. In fact I think that is the warmest temp on record between late October and mid March there.

Yep, and 73 in Penticton, BC which tied the Canadian monthly record. Of course they would have a high of 2 later that month, so a 71 degree spread between their highest and lowest max.

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Hmm… I should probably retire then. My 401K will definitely last that long. 

I'm not religious at all but I trust to feel we are in our last years between here and 2030 most likely 2025 especially with all the solar flare activity a big one is expected 2025. Hence higher UV than normal across the globe and red ionized particles. I make sure to catch them CME's. That sun gonna go boom. Didn't the religious book say the sun will not give its light, we are in the time of Great Tribulation many signs happening already climate change is least to worry about we won't be around for it when it truly effects us.

Anyway back to weather can't wait for the decent stormy period coming up.

[Deweydog]

54 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

4 miles... nice.   Hopefully much more snow!

Unfortunately we’re losing about 50’. Game changer.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Inversion again tonight?

[YahRaEl]

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Interesting satellite imagery this afternoon. What little smoke remains across the region will be extinguished soon as well! 

just got back home from a quick biz trip down to Boise and we're smoked out in Spokane.  gross.  trying to figure out where its coming from

[Phishy Wx]

oof

 

found it

 

 

 

[Snownerd3000]

https://x.com/Climatologist49/status/1704982314265321543?s=20

 

[Phishy Wx]

well this looks fun

 

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well this looks fun

 

We’re due. Let’s get it over with and resume our normal programming. 

[YahRaEl]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well this looks fun

 

Gonna be a winter!!! 

[MossMan]

39 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Gonna be a winter!!! 

Watch…We have the most epic winter since 1949/50! Even with a raging El Niño

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Watch…We have the most epic winter since 1949/50! Even with a raging El Niño

First snowless winter on record in Silver Falls.

[The Cats Meow]

Nice cool and crisp morning today in the valley.  43 degrees felt refreshing.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I like to remind everyone, just because we are in an El Nino season, doesn't mean we won't have unusual weather events. I've lived in the PNW all my life (I'm 56 as of September 6th) and have seen my fair share of El Nino seasons. They are never alike. 

I still think we could see some wind with the storm coming in Sunday and Monday. The reason why I think this could happen is when there is a very deep low pressure system out in the Pacific (which it will be close to the PNW) it has a chance to spin up secondary lows which could be close enough to impact the Interior. I've been seeing a secondary low forming on the GFS model. It's not really that strong at the moment (probably because it's to far out for the models to pick it up). 

I thought I would pass this along because I've seen this happen before. Just my thoughts on the upcoming weather event 🌧🌬

[The Blob]

Beautiful Troutdale sunset.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow, an incredible gift has been bestowed across NE Oregon. The blue and Wallowa mountains have been refreshed by the gods and the spirit has shown upon the ochocco range. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, an incredible gift has been bestowed across NE Oregon. The blue and Wallowa mountains have been refreshed by the gods and the spirit has shown upon the ochocco range. 

I flew over that today back to Spokane from Boise.  it was bumpy AF

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Mid-70's in December and January are probably totally doable in our current climate regime. That's only +30 on long term norms for daily midwinter maxima. We already do that about every other year in the summer with temperatures in the 110's in the Willamette Valley.

KBFI hit 69F during an exceptional atmospheric river event on 12/10/14.

[Meatyorologist]

I concur, 70F in D/J is inevitable in my lifetime.

[Phishy Wx]

I mean South America is having triple digit heat recently in the dead of winter this year.  anything is possible this year.  earth is on steroids

[RentonHill]

4 days out. Choose your second-rate fighter

[Phishy Wx]

blend of the two

[RentonHill]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

blend of the two

That wasn’t an option. It’s a fight not a f***

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, RentonHill said:

That wasn’t an option. It’s a fight not a f***

OK, GEM

[the_convergence_zone]

I finally had a chance to really look at the synoptic structure of this one in the models. It looks like the initial front / atmospheric river on Monday is going to be largely a coastal event. That front gets really strung out on Monday afternoon and the easterly-directed pressure gradient through the Cascades will further surpress rainfall. That GEM forecast above has that right. 

Monday night might be interesting -- both the GFS and Euro have a potent upper-level shortwave wrapping around the southern side of the parent low. I bet the frontal band looks like it will fizzle out on Monday afternoon and then the lift from that shortwave will move in and the front will fire up again overnight Monday into Tuesday. That's the first period that could bring some nice steady rain to the interior. I bet Monday during the day ends up being boring unless you are out on the coast.

Then there's even another shortwave on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This looks like the really strong one. The Euro ensemble in particular is really starting to like this wave. The GEFS is still like 50/50 and thinks the initial front/AR on Monday is going to be a whole lot stronger than the Euro. So the total precip between the Euro/GFS looks similar through the end of the week but each one likes one of the waves more than the other. 

Personally I think the Tues night - Wednesday one promises to be the most fun since it should kick the winds up in addition to the precip rates. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Gfs plz 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 hours ago, T-Town said:

We’re due. Let’s get it over with and resume our normal programming. 

After winter comes spring and summer, when torching IS now our normal programming.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Wow, an incredible gift has been bestowed across NE Oregon. The blue and Wallowa mountains have been refreshed by the gods and the spirit has shown upon the ochocco range. 

May end up being one of their wettest August/Septembers on record.

[Front Ranger]

27 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

After winter comes spring and summer, when torching IS now our normal programming.

Last two springs.

[Phil]

Seasonality in 2024 might be very different from recent years depending on how ENSO evolves after this winter. Sequence of 3 year Niña followed by strong Niño is extremely unusual, normally it’s the other way around.

Statistically speaking 3+ year Niñas are typically followed by extended, 5+ year stretches without a substantial niña, sometimes a decade or more! But very strong Niños usually bring about a -ENSO rebound.

Fascinating intradecadal period coming up. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 hours ago, RentonHill said:

That wasn’t an option. It’s a fight not a f***

You are so consistently funny man

[Meatyorologist]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

Seasonality in 2024 might be very different from recent years depending on how ENSO evolves after this winter. Sequence of 3 year Niña followed by strong Niño is extremely unusual, normally it’s the other way around.

Statistically speaking 3+ year Niñas are typically followed by extended, 5+ year stretches without a substantial niña, sometimes a decade or more! But very strong Niños usually bring about a -ENSO rebound.

Fascinating intradecadal period coming up. 

Inventing new analogs