September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 68/54 there was no rain fall. The sun was out 14% of the possible time. There were 4 HDD’s and the highest wind speed was 17 MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is now down to 73/52, the record high of 94 was set in 1906 and the record low of 35 was set in 1973. The record rain fall amount of 0.86” fell in 1911. Last year it was still a summer like 82/65 and there was 0.14” of rain fall. At the current time I have 47 here in MBY.

The week ahead will start off on the cool side today and then warm up to a little above average for the end of the week and weekend. The highs today will be in the 60’s and then we should see temperatures in the upper 70’s to around 80. Lows tonight will be in the 40’s before rising to the upper 50’s All in all a rather nice late September week.

[chescowxman]

0.43" of rain since yesterday. We have seen 3.17" of rain over the last 11 days. The sun returns this afternoon with next rain chances not till the weekend. Cool nights and pleasant days all week.

Records for today: High 93 (1898) / Low 35 (1990) / Rain 3.90" (1945)

[Tom]

14 hours ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Looking ahead through the week, our friends in the Rockies of Colorado and points NW look to record their first snowfalls if the GFS holds up. 

Worth noting that for Colorado this is a month early or so as its first snows average in October.

Pikes Peak, CO already had more than 8" back on 9/14...Winter has come early!

https://denvergazette.com/outtherecolorado/news/snow-stacks-up-on-colorado-peak-with-8-more-inches-on-the-way/article_f17af674-53f3-11ee-8f08-1b0d62b700fd.html

[Tom]

ORD picked up a solid soaker yesterday with 1.62" of rainfall.  More coming tomorrow morning from a wave heading out of IA into N IL.  Sorta reminds of a wave of SN that forms along an arctic frontal boundary in the Winter.  Where's my mind at today???  Happy freakin' Monday!

[Tom]

This "Blocking Party" up in Canada is something else...#hudsonbayblock...its making things rather interesting tracking this autumn system that has a similar characteristic of a Bowling Ball system!  

Look at that Beauty of a Block up Top...

 

 

0z GEFS 500mb animation is a wonderful way to close out SEP and open up OCT.  Say Hello to the Aleutian Low!

 

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Iceresistance said:

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4

I hope we all like rain. After this event kicks it off, we're going to look and feel like the Seattle of the south with all the clouds for the duration of the forecast.

[OKwx2k4]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

This "Blocking Party" up in Canada is something else...#hudsonbayblock...its making things rather interesting tracking this autumn system that has a similar characteristic of a Bowling Ball system!  

Look at that Beauty of a Block up Top...

 

 

0z GEFS 500mb animation is a wonderful way to close out SEP and open up OCT.  Say Hello to the Aleutian Low!

 

Yeah. When it retros from GOA to Aleutians, we're in business. Lock it in!

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

More coming tomorrow morning from a wave heading out of IA into N IL.  Sorta reminds of a wave of SN that forms along an arctic frontal boundary in the Winter.  Where's my mind at today???  Happy freakin' Monday!

Models are all over the place with placement and strength of this disturbance.  The Euro drops heavy rain here, but most models have it missing north/east or have it being much weaker.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Models are all over the place with placement and strength of this disturbance.  The Euro drops heavy rain here, but most models have it missing north/east or have it being much weaker.

No doubt about that as the blocking is so strong it’ll be a few days before we get some consistency.

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4

It's probably going to be too cloudy and showery for much of the day to really get the severe threat going. But if we do stay a little sunnier and mostly dry I could imagine some pretty good storms forming up in the afternoon or early evening. Mostly a wind threat, but some hail possible too. 

[Tom]

@Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT?  I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind.

[mlgamer]

Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here.

[Black Hole]

Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. 

[Bryan1117]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here.

Very similar story for us in Omaha as well with just over a half inch of rainfall this month so far... we had a decent 45 day run from early July to mid-August, however the rain spigot turned off quickly after that as the heat set in and moderate to severe drought conditions are now returning across Eastern Nebraska. 

Hopefully this weekend will deliver some much needed rainfall, however the lack of agreement with the models on where the heaviest rain will setup has me wondering. 

[Tom]

@bud2380 @Hawkeye could be a surprising soaker tonight...

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton, I'm curious to know if Gary has commented at all about what he's seeing in the modeling for OCT?  I don't follow his paid blog and since we are getting closer to the period when the old LRC begins to fade out, he usually says whats on his mind.

No I haven't.  I don't have a subscription though. 

[OKwx2k4]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Long range GFS...I know. But I did like how it sucks a TC into a deep trough that shakes up the pattern and builds the west coast ridge. I've seen this happen plenty of times before so its possible even if not likely at this time. The downstream development drops that crazy cut off into the southern Plains. 

There's good stuff all over that run for crossing into October. I agree with the emphasis on "long range" but realistically that's where this is headed. 

[james1976]

18z GFS has 50s and a soaking rain here Saturday. Local met has low 70s but also mentions a soaker. Trends are looking pretty good up here. Haven't had a system like this in quite some time. We'll see how it plays out.

[Tom]

@Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave...

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 67/49. There was no rain fall the sun was out just 27% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was 17 MPH out of the N.  For today the average H/L is 73/52 the record high of 91 was set in 1908 the record low of 36 was set in 1929, 1979 and 2020. The record rain fall amount of 1.73” fell in 1988. The sun is above the horizon for 12H and 19M about the same as March 24th Last year the H/L was 79/62 and there was a trace of rain fall.

[Andie]

The last week of September spells it out with the arrival of Fall.  
Not enough rain though.  
Tuesday night brings a swift set of showers

[chescowxman]

Our great autumnal weather continues for the remainder of this week. Temps should tend to average a bit below normal for latter September. Tonight looks to be the chilliest night with many lower spots across the county seeing temps falling into the 40's. Rain chances increase from south to north by Saturday afternoon.

Records for today: High 92 (1983) / Low 36 (1943) / Rain 3.27" (1894)

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

@Clinton I like your chances of getting some good rain outta this tiny, but potent little wave...

I've been keeping my eye on this trying not to jinx it lol.  Let get this rain party started!  Things are looking good late Saturday as well!

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh

[Andie]

59 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

Uh oh

Yeah that front will have some energy in it.  DFW will catch some storms 

[Hawkeye]

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

[Bryan1117]

Made a trip up to Boone, IA this morning for a customer training event and they got absolutely dumped on up there as storms trained continuously over the area… I have no idea how much rain fell, however all the ditches were full of runoff. 

Drove out from Omaha at 6:00am this morning and most of the drive was accompanied by occasional downpours and some of the most vivid lightning I have seen… definitely  will be a day trip that I will remember LOL.

Heading back west now out of Des Moines and finally out of the torrential rains… meanwhile it looks warm and dry as usual back home.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

Mother Nature gave us trash yet again overnight and this morning.  There was very little heavy rain anywhere in the area, but the best rain still split north and south of Cedar Rapids.  I got some thunder, particularly from one decent cell, but it was tiny and passed through in about two minutes.  The rest of the rain was very light.  I finished with only 0.16".

We are now drier from May-Sep this year than we were in 2012... 12 inches below normal.

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

[Tom]

Just think about the possibilities of this slow moving system in the Winter....High over Low and Easterly Flow!

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

This is going to be a fun system to track...a multi day system stuck under a massive Hudson Bay Block...

[Hawkeye]

Latest op Euro.... yes, please.  This entire region desperately needs this.

[Jayhawker85]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Hopefully some relief is on the way for both of us.  Like how the GFS has shifted east even with the rain chances over the weekend. 

I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up

[OKwx2k4]

Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. 

Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. 

@Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening.

[Clinton]

50 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I know we need the rain but I’m glad it’s moving east as i have some big outdoor events this weekend lined up

I'll take all of it! Lol

[Iceresistance]

49 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Basically, if this happens or even close this winter, I'll be in snow or precip for like 7 days straight. 

Those maps are a HUGE blessing for those suffering drought and I'm thrilled to see it. 

@Iceresistance, these storms look like they've got a little thump in them. Will be a bumpy evening.

I am watching the models closely, I got NAMed

Only model with storms coming from NW Oklahoma

[Black Hole]

Mostly a disappointment so far with everything falling apart as it came in. I see some beefy storms across central and SW OK and near DFW this afternoon. I'd be surprised if any of that made it in here, but once the LLJ gets going we should see storms light up near and north of the boundary cutting from near Le Flore County up through north-central OK. Latest HRRR hinting at the general idea of what I am looking at. With the warm advection and lift from the jet in this airmass, we should do well up here tonight...but we will see!

[Andie]

There’s a good chance I’ll see some rain around 10 tonight in far SW Tarrant Co/Ft Worth. 

[Iceresistance]

Goodness, the thunder is crazy!

[Iceresistance]

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

[OKwx2k4]

33 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

TENNIS BALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR SHAWNEE

That's crazy stuff.