October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals. 6z GFS was clearly out to lunch(Applebees?)
(4-run trend)

[Phishy Wx]

31 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

GFS 10 Day Rainfall totals. 6z GFS was clearly out to lunch(Applebees?)
(4-run trend)

3 martini lunch

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Just a reminder, 2019 was the 3rd coldest October on record at SLE and that SON was the coldest since 1985. Kind of impressive if you think about it.

Our coldest temp in 2019-2020 was on October 26th.

[TT-SEA]

Today's front is sure anemic.   Barely limping inland.   Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs.  

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today's front is sure anemic.   Barely limping inland.   Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs.  

we should go and compare last weeks GFS/Euro/GEM for this storm

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

we should and compare last weeks GFS/Euro/GEM for this storm

But past performance does not indicate future results.  We are entering the time of year ripe for AR events and the models could easily error the other way and it sneaks up on us.   I would lean towards a significant AR event happening at some point this month... but also saying I don't really trust the models.

[RentonHill]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Today's front is sure anemic.   Barely limping inland.   Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs.  

Here's total precip map for the euro run since 00z October 4 - last time it rained so the only precip shown on all these maps is from this mon-wed period. 

 

[RentonHill]

incoming on the 12z Euro

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Here's total precip map for the euro run since 00z October 4 - last time it rained so the only precip shown on all these maps is from this mon-wed period. 

 

I was specifically talking about the front today.  I think the system coming tomorrow is actually stronger than was shown so the Mon-Wed period is not that different.   But I remember posting several maps a week ago for today showing heavy rain moving in this morning.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I was specifically talking about the front today.  I think the system coming tomorrow is actually stronger than was shown so the Mon-Wed period is not that different.   But I remember posting several maps a week ago for today showing heavy rain moving in this morning.

 

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night.     Comes in waves... with some breaks.   Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period.

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But past performance does not indicate future results.  We are entering the time of year ripe for AR events and the models could easily error the other way and it sneaks up on us.   I would lean towards a significant AR event happening at some point this month... but also saying I don't really trust the models.

that's fine i'd just like to compare

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night.     Comes in waves... with some breaks.   Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period.

basically nothing over here.  most likely right

[iFred]

Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining.

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining.

yeah, things seem more vivid over here to this year.  not sure if most vivid i've seen but def better than last fall, where everything just shriveled up and died, dead brown 

[Cold Snap]

Low of 53 this morning. No measurable rain yet.

[RentonHill]

also whet

[YahRaEl]

7 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

also whet

[Phishy Wx]

12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

also whet

looks a little better out here.  need more

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, iFred said:

I remember that halloween for the late night snow fall in Bonney Lake. My fuzzy memories tell me it was a pretty decent winter for the Seattle area.

Early Jan had a pretty decent cold snap by 21st century standards. The rest of the winter was meh. And then there's the 5" of rain on 10/20/03 lol

Was the South Valley Surprise in Feb '02 or '03? It's one of my favorite PNW windstorms just because of how strong, efficient, and unpredicted it was.

[YahRaEl]

Eric Snodgrass forecast

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=pzzSiD-2tX4

[Phil]

6 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Probably won't be a super Nino and then crash hard.

I could be wrong, but I don’t think it’ll crash super hard. Statistically it would be extraordinary to develop another La Niña less than 2 years after a 3-year La Niña.

Based on that and other reasons, I suspect the next 7+ years will be more El Niño dominated. Though I may be biased..I’d be happy not to see another La Niña again.  

[Phil]

Long range EPS is El Niño city. +TNH/+PNA, also some +NAO tendency which fits the +TNH. Interesting how quickly that pattern has established this fall.

[Meatyorologist]

You can thank developing Typhoon Bolaven for the rapid dissipation of this upcoming ridge on the models. It'll cause a jet extension which will break our ridge down from the side.

Then, according to the Euro, you can also thank it for a period of warm weather around D10+, as its remnants bomb out over the GOA and pump up another ridge right overhead.

[Meatyorologist]

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

Long range EPS is El Niño city. +TNH/+PNA, also some +NAO tendency which fits the +TNH. Interesting how quickly that pattern has established this fall.

Isn't that a pattern which destabilizes the SPV?

[Phishy Wx]

78 and toasty out

[SilverFallsAndrew]

54 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Early Jan had a pretty decent cold snap by 21st century standards. The rest of the winter was meh. And then there's the 5" of rain on 10/20/03 lol

Was the South Valley Surprise in Feb '02 or '03? It's one of my favorite PNW windstorms just because of how strong, efficient, and unpredicted it was.

South Valley Surprise was February 2002 I believe. 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

South Valley Surprise was February 2002 I believe. 

Ah. Also just realizing now that even if it were in Feb '03 it still wouldn't have been in the 2003-04 winter so it was kind of an irrelevant question lol

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining.

Colors definitely seem pretty good so far here.  I don’t normally take much notice as I find them to be pretty dull and generally overrated in this area.  But right now the yellows and oranges seem quite bright and colorful   

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF is very wet from Saturday night through Monday night.     Comes in waves... with some breaks.   Sunday actually looks fairly sunny in the middle of this period.

We wont get half of what is advertised here up north

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We wont get half of what is advertised here up north

Impossible to know at this range.  Rain shadowing is pretty limited in that setup

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

You can thank developing Typhoon Bolaven for the rapid dissipation of this upcoming ridge on the models. It'll cause a jet extension which will break our ridge down from the side.

Then, according to the Euro, you can also thank it for a period of warm weather around D10+, as its remnants bomb out over the GOA and pump up another ridge right overhead.

Kind of chicken/egg too since autumnal pacific jet activity is to be expected with the current LP regime in the tropics associated w/ ENSO & IOD.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Isn't that a pattern which destabilizes the SPV?

Yes during the middle of winter. +PNA/+WPO increases WAFz thru NPAC, triggering top-down W1 response in the SPV. Scand/Eurasia ridge in tandem opens door to upward propagating W2. In 2018/19 they occurred in tandem, which is how that SSW evolved and overpowered the El Nino inflluence.

In fact you could argue that *extreme* blocking during El Nino has a higher ceiling to produce anomalous outcomes in the PNW given the southward shift in the NPAC jet & augmented STJ. There's a reason 1968/69 was one of the greatest winter up there.

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, iFred said:

Colors have started to pop out against the evergreen backdrop around Everett. Holding out for what is starting to look like the best round of color I have seen in several years, maybe since I moved back from Philly. So far the birch, aspen, and poplars have their tips turning but the breeze is showing that the leaves are remaining.

The color going over Stevens Pass last Friday was absolutely stunning! 

[Gradient Keeper]

That system today sure fell apart kind of like cheap Walmart luggage. No offense to anyone who works at Walmart, used to work at Walmart, or has aspirations and goals to work at Walmart. Outstanding.

00z GFS in 4 hours 44 minutes

[MossMan]

4yrs ago today I had a frosty roof! 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Pretty blah last four days with a typical overachieving high end warm event, temps at least 2-3 degrees above most guidance each day.

79/49 on Thursday, morning fog then severe clear.

84/56 on Friday, severe clear and east winds.

83/54 on Saturday, severe clear and east winds.

78/51 yesterday, morning fog, lighter east winds, then clearing, staying warm and sunny with high clouds moving in toward sunset.

Edited October 9, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[LowerGarfield]

5 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Today's front is sure anemic.   Barely limping inland.   Worth mentioning a week ago this front looked like an AR event on many runs.  

Yes. They've downgraded the winds in Eastern WA as a result. Quite overcast now after a sunny morning.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Today has been nicer so far. Very mild low of just 58, but temps have warmed very little or stayed steady most the day with light rainfall moving in late morning. High of 62 so far, picked up about 0.06” rain. Mostly cloudy and 61 currently with some drizzle around.

Looking forward to some wetter systems in the future, although temps look to stay on the mild side of average overall the next 7-10 days.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Check out all that cold air coming through the Alaska islands (I forgot what the chain of islands there called). Bet there is some really strong winds going through those gaps between islands. And check out the next storm coming our way 🌧🌦