October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS, ECMWF - 10 Day Rainfall totals

[Cold Snap]

Despite it raining for over a couple of hours only picked up 0.04” today.

[Gradient Keeper]

Radar Update
10/10/23 2:16 AM

Our next frontal system is quickly approaching and unlike Monday's weak effort, this one is not falling apart looking quite healthy, energetic, and vigorous. An active fall is fine with me. After this front moves through this morning we could be in for a fun afternoon with showers and t-storms. C'MON!!!!

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's going to be a wet day 🌧🌦

[Ken in Wood Village]

From the NWS in Portland. Sorry if this looks a little funny. I copied and pasted it. 

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Portland OR

619 AM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023

 

ORZ001>008-010>016-WAZ019>022-039-040-045-046-110000-

North Oregon Coast-Central Oregon Coast-

Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-

Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Lower Columbia-

Greater Portland Metro Area-Central Willamette Valley-

South Willamette Valley-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-

Northern Oregon Cascades-Cascade Foothills in Lane County-

Cascades in Lane County-Upper Hood River Valley-

Western Columbia River Gorge-Central Columbia River Gorge-

South Washington Cascades-Willapa Hills-South Washington Coast-I-

5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-Greater Vancouver Area-

South Washington Cascade Foothills-

Including the cities of Astoria, Cannon Beach, Tillamook,

Netarts, Pacific City, Lincoln City, Newport, Cape Foulweather,

Yachats, Florence, Vernonia, Jewell, Sunset Summit, Lees Camp,

Trask, Grande Ronde, Burnt Woods, Tidewater, Swisshome, Veneta,

St. Helens, Clatskanie, Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,

Oregon City, Gresham, Troutdale, Salem, McMinnville, Woodburn,

Stayton, Dallas, Eugene, Springfield, Corvallis, Albany, Lebanon,

Sandy, Estacada, Silver Falls State Park, Sweet Home,

Government Camp, Detroit, Santiam Pass, Vida, Jasper, Lowell,

Cottage Grove, McKenzie Pass, McKenzie Bridge, Oakridge,

Willamette Pass, Parkdale, Odell, Corbett, Rooster Rock,

Multnomah Falls, Cascade Locks, Hood River,

Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center, Mount St. Helens,

Wind River Valley, Willapa, Frances, Elk Mountain, Ryderwood,

Raymond, Long Beach, Ocean Park, Naselle, Cathlamet,

Cape Disappointment, Longview, Kelso, Castle Rock, Vancouver,

Battle Ground, Ridgefield, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, Toutle,

Ariel, Lake Merwin, Yale Lake, Cougar, North Bonneville,

Stevenson, Carson, and Underwood

619 AM PDT Tue Oct 10 2023

 

...BLUSTERY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

 

A potent autumn Pacific frontal system is moving onshore this

morning, spreading light to moderate rain across southwest

Washington and northwest Oregon. While strong winds associated

with this system have thus far remained offshore, south winds are

beginning to increase along the coast and will eventually spread

inland with the front later this morning. Low pressure associated

with the frontal system will slowly approach the Washington coast

through Wednesday, maintaining breezy southwest winds.

 

There will likely be two bursts of gusty winds; the first will be

associated with the front itself this morning, then the second

will occur between midnight tonight and early Wednesday morning.

During these periods, south to southwest winds will gust as high

as 45 to 55 mph along the coast, with gusts as high as 35 to 45 mph

inland. Additionally, showers and isolated thunderstorms may also

enhance wind gusts at any time today through Wednesday.

 

While these winds are not quite strong enough for warnings or

advisories, there is some concern they may be strong enough to

bring down some deciduous tree limbs as most trees have yet to

shed their leaves. Therefore it is not out of the question that

spotty power outages may occur.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Not a single drop of rain.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Ended up with .10" yesterday (the rizzle finally turned to proper rain) and .01" so far today.  Currently 53 after a low of 49

[MossMan]

Light rain and 49 degrees. 
.10” so far on the day. 

[Tyler Mode]

Cooler air is moving in...snow starting to fall at 5,400' at Rainier.

[T-Town]

Ok now we have a problem.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/business/hops-beer-europe-threatened-climate/index.html

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yes during the middle of winter. +PNA/+WPO increases WAFz thru NPAC, triggering top-down W1 response in the SPV. Scand/Eurasia ridge in tandem opens door to upward propagating W2. In 2018/19 they occurred in tandem, which is how that SSW evolved and overpowered the El Nino inflluence.

In fact you could argue that *extreme* blocking during El Nino has a higher ceiling to produce anomalous outcomes in the PNW given the southward shift in the NPAC jet & augmented STJ. There's a reason 1968/69 was one of the greatest winter up there.

Anecdotally this feels true. Snaps during +ENSO winters in recent years have tended to penetrate further south.

[Snownerd3000]

23 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Ok now we have a problem.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/10/business/hops-beer-europe-threatened-climate/index.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Anecdotally this feels true. Snaps during +ENSO winters in recent years have tended to penetrate further south.

January 2020 will be right with you

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’d like to see some cooler temps to bring us down closer to average. SLE running a healthy positive departure on the month. On the other hand at this point we are not blowing our load too early. Let’s hit it hard 1969 or 72 style!

[Cascadia_Wx]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d like to see some cooler temps to bring us down closer to average. SLE running a healthy positive departure on the month. On the other hand at this point we are not blowing our load too early. Let’s hit it hard 1969 or 72 style!

October 1968 and 1972 were both much cooler than average.

[Skagit Weather]

12z GFS is coming in quite dry for Northern WA during the next week. Fortunately it's by far the driest model so I have little confidence in it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

October 1968 and 1972 were both much cooler than average.

Oh well. Maybe a 1987 redux. 

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

12z GFS is coming in quite dry for Northern WA during the next week. Fortunately it's by far the driest model so I have little confidence in it.

12Z GFS is pretty dry overall for the next 16 days... particularly from Seattle northward.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

0.31" since midnight IMBY.

[RentonHill]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z GFS is pretty dry overall for the next 16 days... particularly from Seattle northward.

less extreme on the dry side, but definitely still a sharp cutoff on the EPS

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

36 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

12z GFS is coming in quite dry for Northern WA during the next week. Fortunately it's by far the driest model so I have little confidence in it.

It will end up being right. We are not allowed to have rain up here. 

[RentonHill]

Euro having network connectivity issues...12z not rolling out yet..they must construct additional pylons

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2020 will be right with you

Yeah 19/20 was definitely niño-like in terms of the LP state. But the SPV essentially took over the NH pattern after December, likely aided by immense soot aerosol injection into the tropical stratosphere (from Australian fires) compromising the MC/altering axisymmetric teleconnections to QBO/shear stress. Strange year.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah 19/20 was definitely niño-like in terms of the LP state. But the SPV essentially took over the NH pattern after December, likely aided by immense soot aerosol injection into the tropical stratosphere (from Australian fires) compromising the MC/altering axisymmetric teleconnections to QBO/shear stress. Strange year.

It wasn’t a great winter here regionally, but not a dud. 

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

January 2020 will be right with you

I remember January 2020 penetrating the perfect amount. 
 

 

 

[Phil]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’d like to see some cooler temps to bring us down closer to average. SLE running a healthy positive departure on the month. On the other hand at this point we are not blowing our load too early. Let’s hit it hard 1969 or 72 style!

November should be closer to average IMO. I personally doubt the pattern will support consistent negative departures in the PNW for at least the next 2 weeks, though. Too many factors not lining up right.

But maybe I’m wrong.

[ShawniganLake]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yeah 19/20 was definitely niño-like in terms of the LP state. But the SPV essentially took over the NH pattern after December, likely aided by immense soot aerosol injection into the tropical stratosphere (from Australian fires) compromising the MC/altering axisymmetric teleconnections to QBO/shear stress. Strange year.

Will the Canadian fires this year impact global weather patterns or not so much because of the more northern latitude.  The wildfires in Australia that year were very small in comparison to what has burned in Canada this year. 13 million acres vs 46 million acres

[Gradient Keeper]

ECMWF still down.

[Front Ranger]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It wasn’t a great winter here regionally, but not a dud. 

From your signature, I can ascertain you got more snowfall in 2019-2020 than the two winters of 2014-16 COMBINED.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

From your signature, I can ascertain you got more snowfall in 2019-2020 than the two winters of 2014-16 COMBINED.

Yes, we scored about 10” of wet snow with the near miss in January and had about 1/2 dozen minor events through February and March. If you look at September 2019-March 2020, only December and January were above average temperature wise. 

Edited October 10, 2023 by SilverFallsAndrew

[Gradient Keeper]

@SilverFallsAndrew, you had a big snow during March one year, but I can't remember which year it was? 2012?

18z GFS in 2 hours 51 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

18 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Up on a controlled burn on the south slope of Adams near Trout Lake on Saturday. Conditions were actually too wet to get things going to the extent that was desired. Just creeping ground fire at best. There was an inversion over the area at the time, east winds weren’t punching through as forecast, and temps hung in the low 60s all afternoon with the RH staying high.

Jesse, are you a wild land firefighter?

00z NAM in 6 hours 42 minutes

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS 10 Day Rainfall totals (4-run trend)

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Jesse, are you a wild land firefighter?

00z NAM in 6 hours 42 minutes

Not full time, but I’m on their back up crew in the summer and fall. Third year in a row.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

@SilverFallsAndrew, you had a big snow during March one year, but I can't remember which year it was? 2012?

18z GFS in 2 hours 51 minutes

Yes, we had some big time storms that month. But we had major events in March 2017, 19, and 2023 too. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Not full time, but I’m on their back up crew in the summer and fall. Third year in a row.

I had no idea. Thanks for all you guys and gals do to save our forests, critters, and the special places we love.

Outstanding.

[Gradient Keeper]

EPS 10 Day Rainfall totals (4-run trend) 00z and 12z runs only.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

EPS 10 Day Rainfall totals (4-run trend) 00z and 12z runs only.

Not bad.

[RentonHill]

53 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

ECMWF still down.

looks like the runs have initialized on wbell and pivotal. going to be a big run, i can feel it.

[the_convergence_zone]

This evening looks ideal for widespread convective activity. Good timing with a postfrontal shortwave making landfall right around the evening diurnal max.