December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

About 4 weeks left if we are lucky. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Hard to be surprised by the way this one is playing out.

I was expecting our prime Nino window to maybe be a pinch more eventful. But given how completely depleted of cold air the continent has been, it makes sense. Time is running out...

100%. Given how good last winter was in the West, the cake was probably baked before we even put it in the oven. Yes, I understand we did not have a regional arctic blast and some people didn't get a lot of snow last winter, but as a whole, and by 21st Century standards it really doesn't get much better. We had a 5 1/2 month period where we only torched maybe 2-3 weeks out of that whole time, and had default western troughing about 75% of the time. Makes sense the worm would turn on us, and HARD. 

Best case scenario is we salvage a 2010-like spring. Generally we do pretty well the winter following a big time dud, unless we are in a back to back Nino like 2015-16 or 1958-59, though even both those winters sort of delivered. Especially early January 1959. 

[Deweydog]

December 2024

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Grass is much greener than usual for this time year around here.   Even our San Diego guests commented on that.   Definitely a spring vibe on days like this with a few clouds and sun breaking through.    No grass in this pic... just showing sky conditions. 

Looks like winter to me. Low sun angles and bare trees. I don't know anywhere west of the Cascades the grass isn't green in the winter. 

[Skagit Weather]

With 0.13" overnight and 4.96" on the month, looks like I will end up with my first above average precipitation month in more than a year (since November 2022 when I was maybe 0.5" above average). This will be by far the driest year I've recorded in the 15 years I've had my weather station and will probably end up almost 2" drier than the previous driest of 2019.

[Deweydog]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grass is much greener than usual for this time year around here.   Even our San Diego guests commented on that.   Definitely a spring vibe on days like this with a few clouds and sun breaking through.    No grass in this pic... just showing sky conditions. 

It’s December 26th.

[MossMan]

0.00” on the day so far, 6.21” for the month, 42.27” for the year. 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Looks like winter to me. Low sun angles and bare trees. I don't know anywhere west of the Cascades the grass isn't green in the winter. 

It's a softer green landscape this year.   Our grass up here usually is quite dormant at this point. It's noticeably greener.   Of course sun angle is low and the trees are bare in late December... thanks for that insight!

Definitely spring vibes here this morning.  Can't change my mind.  Doesn't mean it won't be a wintry January or February!

[Phil]

24 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really do not understand how people can say this isn't behaving like a Nino, it is behaving 100% a hideous Nino dud would. Look at the models for the next 10 days, every single system shears to pieces and we are left with light mild rain. The equivalent of being stretched on the rack for 70 years in purgatory. 

I’m not sold on a complete dud yet. If we can pull off a high amplitude wave-2 response/wind reversal, then some crazy last minute shenanigans are possible.

But even that would be brief. Very brief. The low frequency niño forcing/base state has been unshakable to a degree that has surprised even me. And there’s really no way that can change quickly enough to matter.

[The Cats Meow]

My daffodils are about three weeks ahead of scheduled.

[BLI snowman]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. Given how good last winter was in the West, the cake was probably baked before we even put it in the oven. Yes, I understand we did not have a regional arctic blast and some people didn't get a lot of snow last winter, but as a whole, and by 21st Century standards it really doesn't get much better. We had a 5 1/2 month period where we only torched maybe 2-3 weeks out of that whole time, and had default western troughing about 75% of the time. Makes sense the worm would turn on us, and HARD. 

Best case scenario is we salvage a 2010-like spring. Generally we do pretty well the winter following a big time dud, unless we are in a back to back Nino like 2015-16 or 1958-59, though even both those winters sort of delivered. Especially early January 1959. 

Troughing has mostly been parked out west in DJF beginning with 2016-17. It was inevitable that things would shift again. Of course the East hasn't done anything yet, but I do think even they will manage something nice in the back half this go around. If not, then Phil and the Judah Bastardis of the world may need to do some serious soul searching. A very mild Gulf Stream dominated climate now appears to extend at least up to Boston, with bare ground 98+% of the time in the winter. Tough to deal with that loss when you once had greatness. At least in our case we can't miss what has never really been there in our lifetimes.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Phil said:

I’m not sold on a complete dud yet. If we can pull off a high amplitude wave-2 response/wind reversal, then some crazy last minute shenanigans are possible.

But even that would be brief. Very brief. The low frequency niño forcing/base state has been unshakable to a degree that has surprised even me. And there’s really no way that can change quickly enough to matter.

Might not be a dud for you. I could see some kind of freak January 1998 event happening. That's a bit of a best case scenario at this point IMO. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

Something happened to the Weather Guide Wall Calendar. It seems to have been discontinued. I think they changed publishers a few years ago.

It used to have daily phenomenal weather events and interesting weather articles for each month between the pages.

This was the best I could find for 2024.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

Troughing has mostly been parked out west in DJF beginning with 2016-17. It was inevitable that things would shift again. Of course the East hasn't done anything yet, but I do think even they will manage something nice in the back half this go around. If not, then Phil and the Judah Bastardis of the world may need to do some serious soul searching. A very mild Gulf Stream dominated climate now appears to extend at least up to Boston, with bare ground 98+% of the time in the winter. Tough to deal with that loss when you once had greatness. At least in our case we can't miss what has never really been there in our lifetimes.

 

At the end of the day I'd love to see someone score. Even if it's not us. 

[TT-SEA]

[Anti Marine Layer]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I really do not understand how people can say this isn't behaving like a Nino, it is behaving 100% a hideous Nino dud would. Look at the models for the next 10 days, every single system shears to pieces and we are left with light mild rain. The equivalent of being stretched on the rack for 70 years in purgatory. 

California is not getting pounded yet, but sometimes that doesn't happen until January. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

too idyllic, makes me want to vomit.  Happy Festivus

[SnowWillarrive]

1 minute ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

California is not getting pounded yet, but sometimes that doesn't happen until January. 

This Nino is different. California might not see much precipitation. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

too idyllic, makes me want to vomit.  Happy Festivus

3 days late

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

3 days late

starts on xmas eve and goes thru NYD in this house

[MossMan]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sold on a complete dud yet. If we can pull off a high amplitude wave-2 response/wind reversal, then some crazy last minute shenanigans are possible.

But even that would be brief. Very brief. The low frequency niño forcing/base state has been unshakable to a degree that has surprised even me. And there’s really no way that can change quickly enough to matter.

I would be good with a Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 redux. A quick hitter but oh so fun, started snowing that Friday evening, snowed all day Saturday with temps in the 20’s, and off and on snow most of the day on Sunday. Had snow on the ground for about a week afterwards. 

[Phil]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

100%. Given how good last winter was in the West, the cake was probably baked before we even put it in the oven. Yes, I understand we did not have a regional arctic blast and some people didn't get a lot of snow last winter, but as a whole, and by 21st Century standards it really doesn't get much better. We had a 5 1/2 month period where we only torched maybe 2-3 weeks out of that whole time, and had default western troughing about 75% of the time. Makes sense the worm would turn on us, and HARD. 

Best case scenario is we salvage a 2010-like spring. Generally we do pretty well the winter following a big time dud, unless we are in a back to back Nino like 2015-16 or 1958-59, though even both those winters sort of delivered. Especially early January 1959. 

Hoping for a 1958/1992 type progression. Would get us off the hook for the nuclear hot summer that typically follows strong niños.

But that worm is due to turn as well. Can’t escape the dustbowl forever.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Hoping for a 1958/1992 type progression. Would get us off the hook for the nuclear hot summer that typically follows strong niños.

But that worm is due to turn as well. Can’t escape the dustbowl forever.

1958 used to be the hottest summer in history up here... until the last decade.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

1958 used to be the hottest summer in history up here... until the last decade.

1992 had a couple of big heatwaves. Salem hit 105 in June and August that summer. We are probably DUE for another hot summer, right?

[Chowders]

Good morning from Winthrop.  Ended up with 1.5 to 2 inches near the cabin.  Gorgeous morning with blue skies and sun.  Fun driving conditions too

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Chowders said:

Good morning from Winthrop.  Ended up with 1.5 to 2 inches near the cabin.  Gorgeous morning with blue skies and sun.  Fun driving conditions too

 

Gorgeous snaps. Looks like winter. Which is the season we are in!

[Phil]

45 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Troughing has mostly been parked out west in DJF beginning with 2016-17. It was inevitable that things would shift again. Of course the East hasn't done anything yet, but I do think even they will manage something nice in the back half this go around. If not, then Phil and the Judah Bastardis of the world may need to do some serious soul searching. A very mild Gulf Stream dominated climate now appears to extend at least up to Boston, with bare ground 98+% of the time in the winter. Tough to deal with that loss when you once had greatness. At least in our case we can't miss what has never really been there in our lifetimes.

 

Honestly it’s more of the same out here.

People have short memories. Yes, last winter was an extreme outcome, but we actually did okay in 2020/21 and 2021/22 considering the ENSO situation. Much better than 2007/08/09.

Legit blizzard here in March 2022, along with back-to-back 6-8” snowfalls in January 2022 with 4 weeks of snowcover. Not to mention the mammoth nor’easter in New England even I had to chase later in Jan 2022.

Feast or famine has always been the name of the game here. Perhaps less so in NYC/New England, but they’ve been spoiled crazy in the last decade (all their biggest snows have come in the 21st century) so it’s about time they get a reality check.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

About 4 weeks left if we are lucky. 

Late December/early January was the "target" window according to posts in the fall.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1992 had a couple of big heatwaves. Salem hit 105 in June and August that summer. We are probably DUE for another hot summer, right?

31 years ago RIGHT NOW it certainly appeared as though it was coming. I remember it getting rather windy at the coast, memorable since my dad and I installed a Christmas anemometer which immediately got some good use.

2-3 days before JC’s birthday the NWS was on the blast train, but alas the Arctic shortwave dug a bit too far west. Led to the nice jet suppression around NYE which led to a big SCORE in the metro area. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 44/38 day yesterday. A fairly chilly and raw Christmas, especially in the afternoon with the pouring rain, gusty east winds and temps around 40.

Mostly cloudy with some sunbreaks this morning. Low of 39, up to 46 now with light east winds.

Edited December 26, 2023 by Cascadia_Wx

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Gorgeous snaps. Looks like winter. Which is the season we are in!

Anyone traveling from Winthrop to North Bend would definitely say it seems more spring-like over here today.  Its not even a debate.     

But the last two days were classic winter here.  East wind and cloudy on Sunday with a few flurries... and then east wind with rain yesterday.    Yesterday was not pleasant.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

A small piece of good news. As of today PDX is now 0.3F COLDER than their warmest December on record.

Lets see if that can keep up, with the generally mild weather expected through this week.

[Front Ranger]

58 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sold on a complete dud yet. If we can pull off a high amplitude wave-2 response/wind reversal, then some crazy last minute shenanigans are possible.

But even that would be brief. Very brief. The low frequency niño forcing/base state has been unshakable to a degree that has surprised even me. And there’s really no way that can change quickly enough to matter.

Starting to get to the point where you can't deny that CA/SW US isn't seeing the normal Nino STJ, though.

CA precip is well below almost every other moderate/strong Nino on record through December.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Deweydog said:

31 years ago RIGHT NOW it certainly appeared as though it was coming. I remember it getting rather windy at the coast, memorable since my dad and I installed a Christmas anemometer which immediately got some good use.

2-3 days before JC’s birthday the NWS was on the blast train, but alas the Arctic shortwave dug a bit too far west. Led to the nice jet suppression around NYE which led to a big SCORE in the metro area. 

Ended up turning out alright. We had another big event around January 5th which I think cut off around the south Metro, and then on and off snow showers through mid-January. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

I guess the 12z GEFS isn’t necessarily terrible going into January. Seasonable to cool temps at face value. We still have that big McDonald’s logo to get through between now and then, though. 

[Front Ranger]

57 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Might not be a dud for you. I could see some kind of freak January 1998 event happening. That's a bit of a best case scenario at this point IMO. 

Phil will score this winter.

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil will score this winter.

I hope it aligns to a huge assss noreasta when I'm in Philly at the end of Jan

[Front Ranger]

56 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Even in between systems we're stuck in the muck here in the southern Willamette Valley.

You would hate it here in the winter, Tim.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I guess the 12z GEFS isn’t necessarily terrible going into January. Seasonable to cool temps at face value. We still have that big McDonald’s logo to get through between now and then, though. 

It's not horrible, could certainly pull off some chilly days in there. 

[Front Ranger]

43 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I would be good with a Valentine’s Day weekend 2021 redux. A quick hitter but oh so fun, started snowing that Friday evening, snowed all day Saturday with temps in the 20’s, and off and on snow most of the day on Sunday. Had snow on the ground for about a week afterwards. 

You don't understand, Randy. You need to get a complete dud out of your way so the dud monkey is off your back. Short term pain...