December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

January 2050: Electric Bugaloo

I just flashed on this psycho Saturday morning disaster which was from the MUCH chillier ‘70’s but still in syndication…

Young Owen Wilson on top?

[AbbyJr]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Starting to think there might not even be a wind reversal. Or at least not with the first wave attack. Wave driving isn’t quite up to par with the big boys of recent years.

Apart from some small adjustments, isn't this still a wave-2/split? Or did I not understand your previous explanation?

 

[Meatyorologist]

00z GFS conjures up the most healthiest of Baffin Island vortexes in the long range. It's almost erie, disgusting even, staring into the abyss of the sloshing beast, festering in its nest, crafting a nest of frozen seawater, resting in an inversion composed of its own filth.

[Phil]

Poleward -AAM transports indicative of -NAM/-NAO to come. And westerly deposition evident in the SH subtropics, but not much in the NH (hence the crappiness in CA).

Winter 2023/24 may very well go down in infamy in western North America if the PV disruption doesn’t shake the pattern.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Apart some small adjustments, isn't this still a wave-2/split? Or did I not understand the previous explanation you gave me?

 

It is at 50mb (your map), but not at 10mb.

[the_convergence_zone]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

Just in case anyone was wondering, snow conditions are bad in the Washington Cascades currently.

This first map shows the current ranking for Snow Water Equivalent at individual stations with 1 corresponding to the lowest value ever recorded for this date. Much of the North Cascades are seeing their worst or second worst snow depths ever for the end of December with almost every station in the top 10. The stations range from 20-50 years of record. It's not quite as bad in the central Washington Cascades, but those are generally lower elevation and tend not to have as much snow this time of year anyway.

The second map is the more traditional SWE percent of average for different regions. We are now worse than 2014-15 in the north, but still better than 2014-15 in the south.

We should be able to get more stations to #1 in the next week or two. No appreciable snow is on the horizon. 

[Phil]

PV takes the hit like a champ. Gets knocked off its center of gravity but is already regaining its footing by the end of the run.

[Deweydog]

East wind is putting the down on the house RIGHT NOW.

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

PV takes the hit like a champ. Gets knocked off its center of gravity but is already regaining its footing by the end of the run.

That’s gfs clown range though right? So it doesn’t matter?

[RentonHill]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

That’s gfs clown range though right? So it doesn’t matter?

GFS has a known strong PV bias, so it should be discounted. But it also sucks for us so it’s automatically thrown out

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

That’s gfs clown range though right? So it doesn’t matter?

Stratosphere forecasts have more stability but you are correct at that range it’s subject to change.

[AbbyJr]

16 minutes ago, Phil said:

It is at 50mb, but not at 10mb.

Again, excuse my lack of knowledge but another question.

Here is the 18Z run I posted earlier. This was the 50mb level, which shows a wave-2/split:

And here is the 10mb level. Does it also show a wave-2/split? The pressure patterns look different at the 10mb and 50mb levels, so I'm not sure how to spot a split at 10mb's. But the 18Z looks very similar to the 00Z.

18Z 10mb:

00Z 10mb:

[Phil]

The moon must be very bright tonight, because I can see the lunar disk through the moderate rain and fog.

[GHweatherChris]

I am starting to think noone actually knows what they are talking about.

[MWG]

Oof 61F 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Again, excuse my lack of knowledge but another question.

Here is the 18Z run I posted earlier. This was the 50mb level, which shows a wave-2/split:

And here is the 10mb level, does it also a wave-2/split? Because it looks very similar to the 00Z at 10mb:

18Z 10mb:

00Z 10mb:

You are one of the few posters who very directly lives up to their avatar.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

Again, excuse my lack of knowledge but another question.

Here is the 18Z run I posted earlier. This was the 50mb level, which shows a wave-2/split:

And here is the 10mb level, does it also a wave-2/split? Because it looks very similar to the 00Z at 10mb:

18Z 10mb:

00Z 10mb:

The 18z is attempting the wave-1 —> wave-2 transition. 00z doesn’t really complete the transition with wave-1 clearly dominant. (there can be elements of both EOFs as the vortex elongates and tries to split)

[AbbyJr]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You are one of the few posters who very directly lives up to their avatar.

I've learned a lot over the years but still have lots to learn, especially surrounding the polar vortex and SSW's.

[Requiem]

PDX-DLS gradient up to a hefty -10.5-- east burbs are gonna get rocked in the next few hours as the gradient continues to tighten. 

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You are one of the few posters who very directly lives up to their avatar.

Since my avatar is my face, how can I not live up to it?

[Phil]

Over 5000 replies in this thread. You’d think it was an epic weather month by that total.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Over 5000 replies in this thread. You’d think it was an epic weather month by that total.

Been a crazy month of model riding 100,000 feet ASL.

[Deweydog]

7 minutes ago, AbbyJr said:

I've learned a lot over the years but still have lots to learn, especially surrounding the polar vortex and SSW's.

I think that goes for all of us, except for Phil of course.

[MossMan]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I just flashed on this psycho Saturday morning disaster which was from the MUCH chillier ‘70’s but still in syndication…

Young Owen Wilson on top?

They sure smoked some good shitt in the 70’s! 

[Phil]

Is he missing anything?

IMBY the 7/29 downburst and April fools day front were the biggies. Neither of which are listed.

https://x.com/jacob_feuer/status/1739738316260491486?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I think that goes for all of us, except for Phil of course.

I’m getting dumber.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m getting dumber.

I seriously feel the same way.

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, Requiem said:

PDX-DLS gradient up to a hefty -10.5-- east burbs are gonna get rocked in the next few hours as the gradient continues to tighten. 

It was rocking and rolling while getting gas at the Fisher’s Landing Fred Meyer a bit ago. Felt cold! At least some sort of weather.

[Blizzard777]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Finland?

No puddles ….I take what I can get 

[Slushy Inch]

13 minutes ago, Phil said:

Over 5000 replies in this thread. You’d think it was an epic weather month by that total.

Boredom and complaining 

[Phil]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Boredom and complaining 

I rely on this place to vent. Few people in my life understand how brutal this hobby can be.

[Meatyorologist]

27 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am starting to think noone actually knows what they are talking about.

I don't know what you're talking about..

[Phil]

Long range GEM ensemble mean is beautiful.

[Requiem]

14 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was rocking and rolling while getting gas at the Fisher’s Landing Fred Meyer a bit ago. Felt cold! At least some sort of weather.

We're actually up to an 11.5 mb gradient, fairly impressive all things considered. Really the type of doldrums where counting millibars becomes exciting...

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It was rocking and rolling while getting gas at the Fisher’s Landing Fred Meyer a bit ago. Felt cold! At least some sort of weather.

Holy sh*t, Jesseahawk. We’re literally 10 blocks from there and u didn’t stop by??? I still have your peanut brittle!

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

Long range GEM ensemble mean is beautiful.

All the cold dumps east of the cascades. No thanks 

[TT-SEA]

Just changed my son's tire in the driveway... it is ridiculously pleasant for a late December evening.   Moon is shining through the clouds and 52 degrees.

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

All the cold dumps east of the cascades. No thanks 

Not all of it.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just changed my sons tire in the driveway... it is ridiculously pleasant for a late December evening.   Moon is shining through the clouds and 52 degrees.

Sounds spring like

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Sounds spring like

We should be so lucky in April.