Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 wonder if we can use this thing to make it snow (more) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Front Ranger said: Even in between systems we're stuck in the muck here in the southern Willamette Valley. You would hate it here in the winter, Tim. It's true. Though if he lived at his current elevation down this way it might not be as bad, though around 1000' you still get caught in a lot of inversions. Yesterday was overcast and warm up here with occasional rain temps in the mid-50s. Went down to my Dad's for Christmas and it was socked in with dense fog and was 44 degrees. 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 The CMC shows a much more promising pattern upstream than the GFS. Also sends the first legit cold shot of the winter into the Midwest...of course, this is 10 days out. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 EURO ALERTISH 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascadia_Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: wonder if we can use this thing to make it snow (more) Thank you wx forum Twitter bot 1 Quote Summer grows while Winter goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 stuck at 31 with a nice icy crust on everything. snow about 1/2" overnight then freezing mist on top. oof 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Deweydog said: EURO ALERTISH Also much better and way different than GFS. 5 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Even in between systems we're stuck in the muck here in the southern Willamette Valley. You would hate it here in the winter, Tim. Very true. We get more rain but also benefit greatly from offshore flow between systems. It makes a world of difference to get sunny days when other areas go back and forth between rain and thick fog. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: Starting to get to the point where you can't deny that CA/SW US isn't seeing the normal Nino STJ, though. CA precip is well below almost every other moderate/strong Nino on record through December. Yep there has never been an above average strong El Nino winter with a dry Oct - Dec before. The only other two dry ones were 1987-1988 and 1991 - 1992.Those were extreme drought years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 good read right here, RE: SSWEs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthBend RainEnthusiast Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said: people are just desperate, unless you live in like Greenland on the sheet or something, you're going to have occasional dud seasons even at latitude. I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Big step back. https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 16 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. I believe 2012 holds the record for lowest minimum NH ice extent. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Yikes, wave-2 transition is pathetic on 12z EPS even in members that go that route. Odds of a “dud” are increasing for NW half of North America (if you’re hoping for a pattern reversal) assuming this isn’t a blip. 1 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Found out yesterday that one of my nephews has officially caught the bugg. Proof that genetics in some is ABSOLUTELY a part weather nerdery. Can’t tell you how many fights with my old man ended with me storming out of the room and yelling “I’M SORRY I WAS BORN THIS WAY!” It was a lot of fun sitting with him for about an hour and I gave him the run down on how to read models, soundings, meteograms, differences between ops/ensembles, model bias tendencies, etc. We did NOT touch on SSW’s though. You could tell he was seriously infected with the virus and the poor kid has a long road to recovery ahead of him in a warming climate. Reminded me of my grandpa and I as he definitely passed on a lot of geekery as he of would mesmerize me with stories of January 1969 and such. Nice to know there will be some new guard in the family though. 7 1 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Still a friendly stratosphere-troposphere exchange overall and indeed it appears a -NAO/-NAM state is favored for 2nd half of winter, but that slim shot at a wild blocked up pattern with widespread action seems to be slimmer. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Ended up with 0.75" from yesterday's system. Now at 11.08" for December. Currently sunny and 47.5˚F. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Ironically the pullback in the strat is also the reason the 12z EPS trended colder over North America. Pattern leading up to SSWEs can be quite warm in North America. I guess I’ll take it. But would sacrifice the first 3 weeks of January to knock out the vortex if I had a choice. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, Phil said: Big step back. https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ Hopefully just a blip. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said: I believe 2012 holds the record for lowest minimum NH ice extent. Also a one-in-100 year heatwave in Greenland. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 35 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: I lived on the Greenland Ice Sheet for a month in Summer 2012 and it absolutely torched, record melt at the time. No summer ‘duds’ allowed, only winter. I remember Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Lots of pretty yellow colors showing up on the Euro: 50 burgers, 50 burgers, have we got 50 burgers! 1 1 4 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, Phil said: Ironically the pullback in the strat is also the reason the 12z EPS trended colder over North America. Pattern leading up to SSWEs can be quite warm in North America. I guess I’ll take it. But would sacrifice the first 3 weeks of January to knock out the vortex if I had a choice. You'll be fine either way. PNW folks are probably screwed or not either way. 1 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Front Ranger said: You'll be fine either way. PNW folks are probably screwed or not either way. You’re doing your very best to jinx me, aren’t you? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 4.5" of snow yesterday afternoon and overnight. Not bad, good to see snow on the ground again. Actually we are over 30 inches for the month, which is pretty close to normal. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 No matter how you slice it the rest of this month looks like a steaming pile of crap. If we can pull off even a somewhat decent January it would be a big win though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: No matter how you slice it the rest of this month looks like a steaming pile of crap. If we can pull off even a somewhat decent January it would be a big win though. Anything under like, a +2 in January would be a solid win at this point. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 56 minutes ago, Phil said: Big step back. https://x.com/raleighwx/status/1739737310273343778?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ Seems really suspect. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Phil said: Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N. Makes sense. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: Anything under like, a +2 in January would be a solid win at this point. The models have bene hinting at something a fair bit better than that. Still undecided. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Control again. I’m ok with 2019 redux 9 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, Phil said: Though if you change the latitudes a bit the wind reversal is still there. 60N/10mb mean is easterly on 12z EPS, but not 60-90N. Wait I’m wrong again. This is the 101 member extended range EPS. Allan Huffman posted the 15-day EPS that runs twice daily. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Euro locked and loaded on the SSWE save winter with a fun Feb? (again). Re: 2019? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 The SSW has / is happening. We'll just have to wait and see how the wind reversal plays out. 2 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: Euro locked and loaded on the SSWE save winter with a fun Feb? (again). Re: 2019? Don't give up on January yet. With a strong Nino Feb is exceedingly unlikely to deliver. Who knows though. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 I've seen much worse. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Don't give up on January yet. With a strong Nino Feb is exceedingly unlikely to deliver. Who knows though. Agreed. While the odds are still in favour of a dud this winter in the PNW, anything can happen if there is a major SSW event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, AbbyJr said: Agreed. While the odds are still in favour of a dud this winter in the PNW, anything can happen if there is a major SSW event. agree but given the surface translation wouldn't early feb be the sweet spot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 26, 2023 Report Share Posted December 26, 2023 24 minutes ago, Phil said: Wait I’m wrong again. This is the 101 member extended range EPS. Allan Huffman posted the 15-day EPS that runs twice daily. This probably means the 12Z EPS backing off on the SSWE was likely a blip, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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