January 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The Omega Block which has been a signature pattern since the beginning of the LRC is showing it's mighty self as we open up FEB.  The question will be, how big of an influence can this driving force play for the storm train that will pound the West/SW and eventually for our Sub??

 

[MIKEKC]

Day 8-16 on the latest GFS, let's rebuild the glacier and let the cold air pour in after that and then we can layer the glacier with more snows. 

Looks a bit wet in Baltimore this weekend for the Chiefs/Ravens game. Maybe lighter rains during the game. Let's go Chiefs. 6 straight AFC championship games, so tough to do. 

[Hawkeye]

0.57" of rain here from this latest system.  My January total is 3.25", which is apparently the wettest January in several decades.  A few inches doesn't sound like much, but January tends to be cold and dry here so it's difficult to get a lot of precip.

Our snow is vanishing pretty quickly.  I'm guessing 2/3 of our snow is gone.  A few bare spots are showing.  The grass is as green as it will ever be in late January, thanks to all the snow insulating the unfrozen ground during the cold outbreak.

[Hawkeye]

That is a pretty ugly, horribly blocked-up pattern the op Euro is showing in early February.  A massive ridge over the northern US and southern Canada will never allow any precip to get up here.

[Thunder98]

80F temps in the DC area!

 

 

[Andie]

52*. Rain on the way.  
Total officially in DFW 2.45”

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

80F temps in the DC area!

 

 

DCA got to 80, which is the first time that has happened in January (previous highest temp in January was 79)

[Hoosier]

6.36" precip at ORD since December 1.  Average precip for DJF is 6.07", which means that DJF will finish wetter than average even if there's zero additional precip until March (that wouldn't happen of course)

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

6.36" precip at ORD since December 1.  Average precip for DJF is 6.07", which means that DJF 

6.72" here since dec 15th. 400% more than normal

[Minny_Weather]

I really wish I liked ensembles more regarding snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Any ensemble members showing a shovelable amount of snow once temps get cooler again are an outlier at the moment.

[gimmesnow]

9 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

I really wish I liked ensembles more regarding snow chances over the next 2 weeks. Any ensemble members showing a shovelable amount of snow once temps get cooler again are an outlier at the moment.

Well when the pattern changes models take a bit more time to adjust. Hopefully we see them trend towards the outliers.

[westMJim]

The big January thaw continues. Yesterday the official H/L at Grand Rapids was 37/34 there was 0.81” of rainfall. The day started with 4” of snow on the ground. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 62 was set in 1916 the record low of -12 was set in 2003 the record snow fall of 12.2” fell in 1967 the most snow on the ground was 27” in 1978. Last year the H/L was 35/18 there was 1.2” of snowfall and 3” on the ground. At the current time I have a temperature of 35. There are now a some bare spots in the yard. 

[westMJim]

It’s been 45 years since a powerful blizzard dropped up to 2 feet of snow in Southwest Michigan, establishing itself as one of the more memorable weather events in recent history.
The Great Blizzard of 1978 not only brought heavy snow totals – but also hurricane force winds. The storm brought traffic – both in the air and on land – to a complete standstill.

Snowfall records were set during the infamous Blizzard of 1978 which dumped 18.4” inches on the area. It is a calendar day record for Gerald R. Ford International Airport that still stands. Drifts as high as 5 feet clogged Int. 96 between Grand Rapids and Lowell, stranding more than 60 motorists. Schools stayed closed for days. According to Press archives, by 8:15 a.m. on January 26, Grand Rapids police cruisers were ordered off the roads unless necessary. Ambulances got stuck trying to get patients. At Butterworth Hospital, 140 nurses called to say they couldn’t make it in.
The incredible Blizzard of January 26-27th, 1978 evolved out of a winter that was famous for cold and storms. The Winter of 1977-78 thus far had been one the coldest, since records began, in many areas from the Rockies eastward to the Appalachians. Mammoth blizzards occurred late in January and early February from the Midwest to the East Coast as strong Arctic plunges dove south into the country and met up with the warmer winds from the deep south.
Record 24 hour snowfall totals from the storm included, 16.1 inches at Grand Rapids, 15.4 inches at Houghton Lake and 12.2 at Dayton, OH. Snowfalls for the entire storm (25-27th) included a whopping 30.0 inches at Muskegon (some of which was Lake Michigan enhanced), 19.3 inches at Lansing and 19.2 at Grand Rapids. Snowfalls were less over Southeast Lower Michigan (mainly because of the rain that fell for a period) and included 9.9 inches at Flint and 8.2 inches at Detroit.
I lived in Bay City in 1978 and was working 1st shift The day before we were in Ann Arbor as our youngest child had to go there for medical treatments almost ever month. We left AA around 6:30 PM and back then John McMurry Was a meteorologist for the Detroit radio station WJR he was my got weather guy back at the time (along with weather radio anyone remember that?) anyway John was all hyped up about this storm. The snow was mostly light until we reached Flint where it really pickup in intensity and by the time we reached Saginaw there was heavy snow falling. I went the bed with the intention of going to work the next day. When the alarm went off at 5 AM I could here the wind blowing outside and with I looked out he window the snow and blowing snow was so bad I could not see across the road I said this is not good, I went outside just as a heavy thundersnow storm started with the kind of thunder and lightning we have not seen at anytime in the last 5 or 6 years. The snow in the driveway was up to my hip so I went back in the house to call in to say I was not coming into work well. The line was busy and it stayed busy until past 9 AM Well the good news was work was closed that day and it was closed the next day as well. Even on Monday there were a lot of people still snowed in.

Now, for many the 1978 storm is their biggest mine happened on the same dates 11 years before. In 1967 I was still in High School and in many locations this storm was bigger then the 1978 storm but both were very similar. One big difference was that leading up to the 1967 storm it was warm not cold like it was in 1978. Here are some facts on the 1967 storm.
On Jan. 26-27, 1967, one of the biggest and baldest blizzards struck Michigan. It went down as one of the all-time worst blizzards in Michigan’s history mainly because of the way the weather conditions changed drastically in a short amount of time. In days leading up to the blizzard, some areas featured temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
Snowfall totals
Here’s the snowfall totals measured in some of Michigan’s cities after the 1967 storm:
Kalamazoo … 30 inches
Bay City……….30 inches
Battle Creek … 28.6 inches
Lansing … 24 inches
Saginaw … 23.8 inches
Flint … 22.7 inches
Grand Rapids … 18 inches
Jackson … 16 inches
Muskegon … 11 inches

The 1967 blizzard caught many Michigan residents off guard. In several locations, the temperatures were in the 50s and 60s, and then a couple of days later on Jan. 26 and 27, the blizzard dumped lots of really heavy snow in a relatively short period.
In Lansing, the temperature was 66 degrees on Jan. 24, 1967. Two days later, 24 inches of snow had fell.
In Grand Rapids, the warm temperatures produced records at that time of 62 degrees on Jan. 24, 1967 and 57 degrees on Jan. 25, 1967. Then the snow — a foot and half — fell.
One spot where the warm air kept the blizzard at bay was in Detroit. The Motor City officials had more than 1 inch of rain and 3.5 inches of snow.
In a day when schools seldom closed for snow day we had no school for 7 days. I know there are a lot of people who think of the GHD storm as the big daddy. I can tell you that storm did not even compare to the storms of 1967 and 1978.  In the winter of 2014 the total snow on the ground came close to what it was in 1978 but there was not the wind and powerful thunder snow.

 

[gosaints]

Glacier??  The snow we have is mush all the way down to the grass.  Crazy pattern.

[Clinton]

Models are still all over the place but the Euro last night is getting cold.

7 day temp anomaly  15th-22nd

22nd - 29th

29th - 7th

Deep freeze

snow

 

 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

Well when the pattern changes models take a bit more time to adjust. Hopefully we see them trend towards the outliers.

The CO Rockies are going to get pummeled to open up FEB...President's day may be your ticket of choice if your still up for a long trip but I gotta tell ya, the blocking, storm track...both favor a bountiful delight of snow.  I'm thinking about going there myself mid/late FEB if I can find some friends to tag along.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, gosaints said:

Glacier??  The snow we have is mush all the way down to the grass.  Crazy pattern.

I wonder what ppl are thinking in Saskatchewan or Winnipeg?  Man, after all the previous winters they've seen this has to be quite a change for them.  It's like extended Fall or Spring...nasso much a real Canadian Winter.

[Clinton]

0z Euro and Euro control both bringing some cold air into the pattern around Feb 4th and they have a marginal event across the middle of the country.  The Euro showing a bowling ball type storm.

[Tom]

Fired up a FEB thread as it is Time...

[chescowxman]

Only fell to 38.9 here in EN. Lower spots were as cold as 31. After 3 straight days of rain and fog totaling 0.76" we have a dry day today (not much sun though) with high temps running almost 10 degrees above normal for the date in the upper 40's. Temps will only fall to the upper 30's tonight as rain arrives overnight. Tomorrow will be raw and wet day with temperatures going nowhere during the day remaining in the 30's to near 40. Snow may begin to mix in with the rain especially in the higher spots in the area overnight Sunday into Monday AM. We should remain near to slightly above normal temps for the rest of the work week.
Records for today: High 71 (1916) / Low 2 below zero (1987) / Rain 1.46" (1990) / Snow 6.5" (1941)

[hawkstwelve]

The fog finally lifted after 4+ days and we enjoyed bright blue sunny skies with a high of 43. Family went out for a nice walk along the river where we saw some animal tracks. Kids had fun trying to decipher what kind of animal it was. Just a beautiful day here!

[Stormy]

On 1/26/2024 at 7:03 AM, OttumwaSnomow said:

Just absurd numbers here. Another .66" rain  yesterday's  sys. Too many systems  to count! Still 8" snow of thick slush covers  the landscape  evenly! 

4.35" precip Jan

6.72" precip since dec 15th

38.7" snow in January 

43.2 snow for season

This is area with sparse and somewhat inaccurate  data. So my goal it  show exactly  what happens  here. I strongly  believe  that winter precip, particularly  frozen precip has bee grossly  under reported.  Thats based on comparisons ive been  seeing for years.  I firmly  believe  based  on what ive observed  since 2008 that  snow and winter precip  averages  are considerably  higher  than what most sources say.  In 2018 2019 I measured  67 inches of snow here. Even last winter i had 28".

 

I totally agree about the under reporting! Precip. amounts here are similar to yours. I haven't checked yet, but this month is likely the wettest January of my records, with most of it from snow! The first snowstorm had insane amount of liquid, but I won't post it as I'm still not sure if I really believe it or how accurate it was. 

The last system brought 0.58" of rainfall bringing my weekly total to 0.83". Heavier rainfall occurred south of here in far se. IA 

[Madtown]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models are still all over the place but the Euro last night is getting cold.

7 day temp anomaly  15th-22nd

22nd - 29th

29th - 7th

Deep freeze

snow

 

 

Gonna be the first year ever Vilas Cty doesn't open trails. 85 yr old supper club selling 100 gift cards and giving an extra 50 with it go try and make it to summer busy season

[jaster220]

@westMJim

I remember John McMurray as a rather subdued TV Met on channel 12 in Flint. Must have been interesting to hear him notably excited for the big bliz on WJR. My father listened to WJR (and sometimes WWJ) always in the car. But being mid-week we were not traveling, just doing regular school and work routines and I never saw/heard one forecast prior to the 26th "day of infamy" for the LP of Michigan. I was 13 then and wouldn't buy my NOAA weather radio (at Radio Shack in the Eastland Mall) until 5 years later. And, I was in Davison then, one of low-ball areas mentioned. Conditions were still bad due to blowing and drifting but it technically wasn't even a Big Dog via snow totals (8-9") let alone top 5 in that category. For Genesee Cnty I think the 67 bliz stands alone as a CAT-5 storm (20+ inches). After two such huge storms for SMI in 11 year span I wonder if/when we will ever see another? There was something special in the pattern cycle during roughly a 20 year period (65-85) that brought arctic HP's down in the perfect spot for SMI snowstorms to over-perform. It may take that same pattern recycling before it happens again. I really appreciated your write-up and the news information about the GR area impacts. Fills-in some more puzzle pieces in my reconstruction of a "Storm Story" episode for SMI's biggest and baddest blizzard. It would be neat if Jim Cantore did an actual episode on historical events like that one. I have such a video (from a hunter's perspective) on the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940 that I will post later.

[gimmesnow]

10 hours ago, Madtown said:

Gonna be the first year ever Vilas Cty doesn't open trails. 85 yr old supper club selling 100 gift cards and giving an extra 50 with it go try and make it to summer busy season

Whitecap Resort is an hour and half NW from Vilas. I went there a weekend or two ago. I've never seen the UP in such sad shape. It's going to look a lot different next winter, for sure. I don't think Whitecap is going survive, honestly. Their main lodge lift needs a cable splice, which is expensive and difficult, the main lift between the two mountains is broken. The runs that were open were awfully weak, low base, rocks, etc. We were there for a weekend in January, only other people there were really the WCHC crowd that loves Whitecap. Between that and big Cali money Skinner buying Indianhead and Blackjack, making snow, and installing a high speed 6 pack lift I think there's going to be problems up there next year for ski resorts.

Hopefully we can get some LES to at least save the ski resorts up there. If it does I plan on making another trip up there.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 38/33 there was 0.01” of rainfall. There was no sunshine and the day started out with a reported 1” of snow on the ground at GRR. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 53 was set in 1914 and 2002 the record low of -9 was set in 2014 the record snowfall of 6.0” fell in 1977 the most snow on the ground was 24” in 1978. Last year the H/L was 31/23 and there was 4” of snowfall.

While this long warm spell has not had any near record highs the lows have been in the top ten since January 23^rd it has not gone below 32 since January 22^nd There are now a lot of bare spots showing up in my yard.

 

[MinnesotaSnow]

9 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Whitecap Resort is an hour and half NW from Vilas. I went there a weekend or two ago. I've never seen the UP in such sad shape. It's going to look a lot different next winter, for sure. I don't think Whitecap is going survive, honestly. Their main lodge lift needs a cable splice, which is expensive and difficult, the main lift between the two mountains is broken. The runs that were open were awfully weak, low base, rocks, etc. We were there for a weekend in January, only other people there were really the WCHC crowd that loves Whitecap. Between that and big Cali money Skinner buying Indianhead and Blackjack, making snow, and installing a high speed 6 pack lift I think there's going to be problems up there next year for ski resorts.

Hopefully we can get some LES to at least save the ski resorts up there. If it does I plan on making another trip up there.

We will continue to see consolidation across the industry. With rising costs from insurance to wages, and maintenance it’s inevitable for the smaller resorts to consolidate to survive. I’m not necessary anti-Skinner family buying up resorts, if they can maintain the local hill feel. (Always have loved Lutsen) However it’s the mega corps like fail resorts buying up properties that worries me. 

[gimmesnow]

25 minutes ago, MinnesotaSnow said:

We will continue to see consolidation across the industry. With rising costs from insurance to wages, and maintenance it’s inevitable for the smaller resorts to consolidate to survive. I’m not necessary anti-Skinner family buying up resorts, if they can maintain the local hill feel. (Always have loved Lutsen) However it’s the mega corps like fail resorts buying up properties that worries me. 

I'm afraid so too. Skinner does do much better than Vail. I think Vail actually succeeded in killing Wilmot Mountain down by us. Top of the hill is dirt on their webcam. Whitecap has some awesome terrain, I think they would have been ok this winter if they actually got snow.

That's what Wilmot looks like right now. I was just at Alpine Valley Friday and it was actually great considering all the rain. Vail just buys up resorts to get people to buy epic passes and get them out west. Wilmot was a nice family owned place at one time.

I don't mind Skinner buying up resorts, but he buys up all the good ones, he's old, and I'm worried what's going to happen in the next 10 years or so. At least he seems to be trying to set things up for a future long term with Midwest Family Resorts or whatever it's called.

It's been an extremely tough business this year for anything that depends on snow. Even man made.

[chescowxman]

With our 0.93" of rain so far today we are up to 7.36" of rain for the month. The good news is after today we should be dry for the rest of the upcoming week. The drizzle and light rain could mix with a few wet snow flakes tonight before ending. Our temperatures should trend colder this week with average temps not too far from normal for the last week of January.

Records for today: High 67 (1914) / Low 10 below zero (1925) / Precipitation 1.80" (1922) / Snow 18.0" (1922) - this was the first day of 2 day snowstorm that would deliver 26" of snow - this was the 6th largest snowstorm in county history.

[MinnesotaSnow]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

I'm afraid so too. Skinner does do much better than Vail. I think Vail actually succeeded in killing Wilmot Mountain down by us. Top of the hill is dirt on their webcam. Whitecap has some awesome terrain, I think they would have been ok this winter if they actually got snow.

That's what Wilmot looks like right now. I was just at Alpine Valley Friday and it was actually great considering all the rain. Vail just buys up resorts to get people to buy epic passes and get them out west. Wilmot was a nice family owned place at one time.

I don't mind Skinner buying up resorts, but he buys up all the good ones, he's old, and I'm worried what's going to happen in the next 10 years or so. At least he seems to be trying to set things up for a future long term with Midwest Family Resorts or whatever it's called.

It's been an extremely tough business this year for anything that depends on snow. Even man made.

I used to ski Wilmot growing up when I’d visit family in Lake Zurich IL. Vail ruined Afton Alps, just outside of St. Paul MN. They have invested zero into the hill while charging nearly $100 a day unless you have their pass. I understand the business strategy, but it hurts the greater industry. 

[Hawkeye]

1 hour ago, chescowxman said:

With our 0.93" of rain so far today we are up to 7.36" of rain for the month.

That is a LOT of precip.  We've had a top-ten wet January, but it's not even half of what you've received.

[Niko]

On 1/25/2024 at 5:02 PM, Tom said:

That's quite fascinating and thanks for sharing this info about the grass still being green after the last arctic blast.  The snow definitely had a blanket effect on the soils.  Now, if this was up north where they depend on trails and ice, this would be a bad scenario as they usually want to see arctic air without any snow to freeze up the ground.  Hopefully you can rebuild that nice snow pack by the 2nd week of FEB into MAR.

 

Yes, I posted video's of a trip I took back on Jan 7th up into the White Mountains in Pinetop/Lakeside, AZ.  It was a wonderful experience driving through Blitz conditions and powder blowing sideways.

WOW! That sounds like a wild drive being in a blizzard.

[Niko]

Well, Detroit picked up 0.8" of slushy snow this morning making it a total of 14.6" of snowfall so far this month. Maybe we can add a bit more on Tuesday b4 we close out the month. Overall, not too shabby during a nino winter.

[jaster220]

@Niko

"Mitt hit" with this clipper tomorrow night/Tuesday morning should increase your (our) total. 

[jaster220]

One snow shower this PM. My forecast looks like winter for a day. 

[Clinton]

Congrats to the Chiefs once again!  It was great to see the sun yesterday for the first time in over a week more of it coming today.

 

[westMJim]

The Lions won the first half of yesterday’s final game and lost the second half, ultimately the game.  So, hold your heads high gentlemen, you provided us with a lot of excitement and entertainment this year.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/32. There was 0.03” of rain fall and there is now just trace amounts of snow on the ground. Once again there was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/17 the record high of 59 was set in 1914 the record low of -16 was set in 1966 the most snowfall of 7.5” fell in 1909 the most on the ground was 22” in 1978. Last year the H/L was 26/23 there was 1.9” of snowfall and 8” on the ground.

The high of 40 yesterday is the warmest high so far this January and if it stays below 41 that 40 will be the lowest maximum in an January since 2009. So while the lows have been above 32 for most of this thaw the highs have not been all that warm.

[westMJim]

Some weather history for southern Lower Michigan

1909: A snowstorm dumps from 6 to 10 inches of snow across southern Lower Michigan.

1966: A week-long cold snap reaches its nadir as temperatures fall to record lows of 16 below zero at Grand Rapids and 12 below at Muskegon.

 2023, a winter storm brought heavy snow (up to an inch per hour for several hours) to the Tri-Cities where snow totals of 6 to 8 inches were observed. Note the Tri-Cities in Michigan are Bay City, Saginaw and Midland.

 2018, widespread accumulating snow fell over Southeast Michigan. Most locations saw 1-5″, but a very narrow band of heavy snow developed along a line from Perry to Durand to Flint. Ten inches of snow was observed at Flint, making it the 16th largest snow in its climate record.

 1947, 1.32 inches of rain fell in Flint!

Across the USA

2002: A major three-day winter storm blasted parts of Kansas and Missouri. A catastrophic ice storm occurred south of the snow area, with two inches of ice and snow accumulating in the Kansas City, Missouri area. Thousands of trees were felled by the storm, blocking roads, felling utility lines, and causing fires. Two “Bicentennial Trees,” estimated to be over 200 years old, were badly damaged by this storm. After the 31^st, 325,000 people were reported without power in Kansas City alone. 

2008: A sharp cold front moved across Illinois during the day, producing a drastic temperature drop. Temperatures fell 20 to 40 degrees in just a couple of hours, with areas from Springfield, Illinois to St. Louis, Missouri seeing temperatures fall as much as 50 degrees between noon and 6 pm. Temperatures in the mid-60s in central Illinois at midday on the 29th had fallen to near zero by the next morning.

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The Lions won the first half of yesterday’s final game and lost the second half, ultimately the game.  So, hold your heads high gentlemen, you provided us with a lot of excitement and entertainment this year.

That was tough to watch as those 2nd half mistakes really costed them the game!  The players had "butterfingers"...unfortunately, when you play a great team like the 49r's, they'll make you pay.  I believe they have a great future and I really like their Head Coach.