1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[hawkstwelve]

12z Euro still looking good for the northern side of the system. Actually upped totals here pretty big vs it's 00z run due to the placement of the heaviest snow.

Luckily, CMC seems to be on it's own at the moment.

[bud2380]

Euro is coming out a touch slower this run vs. 00z.  Not sure if that will have any meaningfull impacts or not.  

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

You can see that warm lake influence on the 12z GEFS map....

 

 

Some big hits in MO/C IL...

 

One thing I don't like seeing is the brutal gradient somewhere near the IN border, which is showing up on most guidance (maybe except for the GGEM).  I suppose if anybody in IN pulls out a decent snow, it could be me with how far nw I am.  

[hawkstwelve]

Looking better for spots in Missouri vs 00z run through Tuesday AM...

[Money]

Euro looking NW compared to other models 

[winterfreak]

Intriguing:

[Tom]

Is this a sign of good things?  The placement of the H5 Low on the 12z Euro takes it right over the Hot Springs in Arkansas where I stayed this past OCT.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z Euro storm total comparison...

[Tom]

If the Euro is right,  this trowal will be puking snow on the NW side...#Thundersnow

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, winterfreak said:

Intriguing:

Increased amounts in the Wichita to KC area also.

[bud2380]

Not bad for MBY.  About 4-5" total.  Only about 1.5" from the WAA band and then another 2-3" from the main event Tuesday.  If this were to nudge just a little more NW then totals will really increase. 

[Tom]

Close up...

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

If the Euro is right,  this trowal will be puking snow on the NW side...#Thundersnow

Chicago looks gold.  You should fly back for it.

[Hoosier]

Just speaking overall without regard for anybody's particular backyard, this 12z Euro is a drastic improvement over 00z.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro trend is northwest at 12z, southeast at 00z.

[Tom]

Just now, Clinton said:

Chicago looks gold.  You should fly back for it.

This ain't the one...I think there are better chances forthcoming...I have to be picky!  My dad is flying out of PHX around 1 pm and has an arrival time around 6 or 7pm....ya, I think he's gonna be delayed or cancelled.

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Chicago looks gold.  You should fly back for it.

He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Tom said:

This ain't the one...I think there are better chances forthcoming...I have to be picky!  My dad is flying out of PHX around 1 pm and has an arrival time around 6 or 7pm....ya, I think he's gonna be delayed or cancelled.

 

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm 

So much going on its making it hard to work!

[Tom]

Just now, Hoosier said:

He might want to wait and see about the follow up storm 

I'm at a crosshairs bc that storm is going to be loaded up over here in the mountains!  Very cold and lots of juice...I've been doing some reserach and hearing that the winds are intense when strong storms blow through.  This one coming up on the weekend on Sunday is supposed to bring 40-50mph wind gusts.  This storm has no comparison to what the next weekend system should deliver.  I've seen winds up to 80mph near Flagstaff that were reported last year.

 

 

[KCSmokey]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

 

So much going on its making it hard to work!

Agreed, as snow is falling from the sky right now in KC.

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, KCSmokey said:

Agreed, as snow is falling from the sky right now in KC.

Getting some flakes and grapple here.  Feels and looks like winter.

[FV-Mike]

Flying back to Chi from Florida on 1/8. Glad my Flight is early on Monday and not Tuesday!

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, FV-Mike said:

Flying back to Chi from Florida on 1/8. Glad my Flight is early on Monday and not Tuesday!

Timing is everything...The Snow God's are listening!

[hawkstwelve]

Worth noting that while this system has finally uncoupled itself from the Aleutian low, it still won't be over land and get more data inputs until it moves into the PNW around 12z tomorrow. I'd imagine we will start seeing a narrowing of potential outcomes over the next 24-36 hours. Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be surprises.

[Jayhawker85]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Getting some flakes and grapple here.  Feels and looks like winter.

Snowing pretty good clip here in Leawood with snow sticking on the grass and now streets. It’s gently fat wet flakes! Can’t wait to see this x100 on Monday!

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Snowing pretty good clip here in Leawood with snow sticking on the grass and now streets. It’s gently fat wet flakes! Can’t wait to see this x100 on Monday!

Goodluck to us all.  It's going to be a beautiful sticky snow!

[uticasnow]

14 minutes ago, Tom said:

Timing is everything...The Snow God's are listening!

Not here in southeast Michigan.  Was lookig pretty good for a half way decent snowfall with this upcoming storm but as always

ends up being mostly rain.........what a dissapointment (again).

[hawkstwelve]

12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run...

[Tom]

1 minute ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run...

Double digits showing up in C & NE IL is an interesting trends...

[KTPmidMO]

18 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Worth noting that while this system has finally uncoupled itself from the Aleutian low, it still won't be over land and get more data inputs until it moves into the PNW around 12z tomorrow. I'd imagine we will start seeing a narrowing of potential outcomes over the next 24-36 hours. Of course, that doesn't mean there won't be surprises.

I saw a report that the Us Air Force Hurricane Hunters will be flying inside the storm today taking samples. If thats the case, that means we will have "true" data which will be loaded into the weather models. By 00z tonight the data suite is likely to be much more accurate than all previous guidance runs.

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z EPS control, keeping in mind these are 10:1 ratios and not Kuchera like the OP maps...

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z EPS looking a bit better for many spots vs 00z run...

It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa.

[hawkstwelve]

1 minute ago, Hawkeye said:

It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa.

Yeah I find it a bit harder to comment on runs on this side of the forum vs when I was on the PNW side. In the PNW, while you can have wildly varying outcomes due to topographical differences (among many others), we were all in a relatively small geographical area so you could generally apply a "this run is better" comment to the majority of members. Over here, we are all much more spread out and often times a "better run" for one person's backyard usually means a worse run for someone else's. Makes it much harder to paint in broad strokes.

[Black Hole]

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yeah I find it a bit harder to comment on runs on this side of the forum vs when I was on the PNW side. In the PNW, while you can have wildly varying outcomes due to topographical differences (among many others), we were all in a relatively small geographical area so you could generally apply a "this run is better" comment to the majority of members. Over here, we are all much more spread out and often times a "better run" for one person's backyard usually means a worse run for someone else's. Makes it much harder to paint in broad strokes.

That general idea is always hard for me too. My excitement is your detriment, and visa versa. I don't know if its possible for everybody in the Plains to get a good dump from the same storm. 

[Hoosier]

974 mb on an ensemble mean at 5 days out is fairly impressive.

[bud2380]

29 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

It's better, overall, for many, but it's actually drier for northeast Iowa.

The Euro is backing off on the WAA wave in eastern Iowa.  But was stronger with the deformation band.  It's possible we whiff on both yet, but right now I'd think 2-4" is going to be our forecast in the Cedar Rapids area. 

[Pros3lyte]

Man. SE MI is heartbreak hotel as usual!

[tStacsh]

4 days out still.  Ensembles still the way to go.   Euro looks nice though.  

[Hoosier]

Wonder if we will get some super amped HRRR/RAP runs as they get in range.  Happens often but not always.

[ATW]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Goodluck to us all.  It's going to be a beautiful sticky snow!

I’m starting to get a little more excited. Columbia is in a good spot even according to the European model. Just don’t want to see any big shifts. Suppose to get pretty cold Tuesday night so what sticks will be set. Good luck to you to Clinton. You’re not too far from me.