January 11-13 Major Winter Storm/Blizzard

[bud2380]

15z RAP just buries many locations.

[bud2380]

from midnight to 6am the RAP just hammers Eastern Iowa.  9.2" in Iowa City in a 6 hour period.

[bud2380]

LaCrosse AFD mentioned the possibility of 2+"/hour rates with this lead WAA band.

 

As main wave in question rounds base of western trough and ejects
northeast towards the Great Lakes on Friday, lots of dynamics in
play that will lead to impressive cyclogenesis. Based on 11.03z RAP
surface low will deepen from 996 mb near Kansas City tonight to 966
mb over Lake Michigan east of Milwaukee by Friday evening. Hints of
coupled jet streaks across the region as well with divergence aloft
and broad, strong lift as wave becomes negatively tilted and swings
into Great Lakes. To no surprise low level wind field is quite
strong ahead of low advecting moisture into the system as it lifts
northeast, with hints of strong isentropic lift and mid level
frontogenetic banding. In fact, this feature could lead to high
snowfall rates /2"+ per hour/ early Friday morning as forcing lifts
north.

[East Dubzz]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

15z RAP just buries many locations.

This model run is obviously going to nail it. 

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

from midnight to 6am the RAP just hammers Eastern Iowa.  9.2" in Iowa City in a 6 hour period.

See, this is very different from some other models that show the heaviest band through Waterloo, with only a few inches over southeast Iowa where the RAP is heaviest.  I really want to see some model convergence.

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Our local weather personaliteis are  really keeping it conservative.. 

Hard to blame anyone for a conservative approach right now.  Plenty of mixed signals.

I'm hoping we can lay down a base of a few inches tomorrow morning, because even assuming a changeover to rain after, it shouldn't wipe it out as temps likely won't exceed the mid 30s.  Then we add on afterward, build a solid sheet of snow, then get a rapid temp drop and turn the snow more fluffy to magnify the blowing/drifting aspect.  That's the plan anyway.  

[gabel23]

Well Jim Flowers increasing today. One thing for sure, most models show a sliver of heavy snow coming from omaha straight west into my county! Man what a storm, what a week!! This will be a snowstorm with temps in the single digits I mean come on?! I can't remember this happening since the december storms of 2000! 

[Hoosier]

Just noticed SPC has general thunder pretty far north.  Let's do it.

 

[bud2380]

The RAP actually brings rain into far SE Iowa as 850s rise above 0.

 

[bud2380]

GFS and Euro are worlds apart on QPF.

 

GFS at 3am is way stronger vs. the Euro.

 

[jcwxguy]

euro going nuts for nebraska

[bud2380]

Euro really increasing totals in Nebraska vs. 00z. 

[Grizzcoat]

The Euro is not  initializing well with temps in C.IA-- way off.

[bud2380]

Euro with about 2" more in CR than the 00z run, but still is about the lowest end of guidance on snowfall totals.  Just doesn't have the QPF here that other models are showing. 

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

Euro at 6hrs for noon today temps vs actual temps -- never seen it that bad

[Grizzcoat]

Euro is 10-15F off at 6 hours-- horrible. Might show a NW trend the Euro is not seeing. Just looking at things with reason.

[gosaints]

2 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

Euro at 6hrs for noon today temps vs actual temps -- never seen it that bad

Could be a sign that it could struggle with the WAA wing of snows

[james1976]

MPX bumped me up to 4-6" now. Nice trends!

[The Snowman]

Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro.

[Grizzcoat]

4 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro.

Euro gives me 1'. I don't trust it with it's bad initializing with surface temps. Wish I had access to upper air soundings and see if they match the 850/ 925 mb temps at 18Z -- I doubt it, can't totally discount past 12-18 hrs , but as Gosaints said, it's likely struggling with the WAA snows

[BMT]

SREF Mean with a nice shift south in E IA with the heavier totals.  

[james1976]

And now the Euro has me over 6". It will be interesting to see what MPX does with their afternoon update.

[Hoosier]

Gut feeling is that LOT upgrades me to a winter storm warning later (they certainly will farther north).  They may not have the greatest confidence in warning criteria amounts here, but it should be close enough even in a worst case/least snowy scenario, plus factoring in the wind impact and what that may do with weighed down tree branches and then increasing blowing/drifting concerns later in the storm.

[metallica470]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Gut feeling is that LOT upgrades me to a winter storm warning later (they certainly will farther north).  They may not have the greatest confidence in warning criteria amounts here, but it should be close enough even in a worst case/least snowy scenario, plus factoring in the wind impact and what that may do with weighed down tree branches and then increasing blowing/drifting concerns later in the storm.

I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west.  Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went.

[Bumblin Bman09]

1 minute ago, metallica470 said:

I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west.  Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went.

I am up North in Gurnee and still worried with the warm temps North and off the Lake.  I am not sure what to expect as this storm unfolds

[gabel23]

30 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Once again gnarly stuff from the Euro.

Holy smokes that just buries me and most of Eastern Nebraska!!! We would be shut down for days around here if this verifies. 

[metallica470]

2 minutes ago, Bumblin Bman09 said:

I am up North in Gurnee and still worried with the warm temps North and off the Lake.  I am not sure what to expect as this storm unfolds

If it wasn't for the warm lake, I would think you would have been north enough to be golden.  Hopefully you are far enough inland that the lake doesn't impact you as much, but I think it's anyone's guess and will become a nowcast for those near the lake.

[Hoosier]

10 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

I am at the same latitude as you, just 25 miles west.  Still concerned about being too warm especially after how the last storm went.

Yeah, these marginal scenarios are always tricky.

[Hawkeye]

I'm not sure how much we'll get... probably something in the 4-8 range.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

If it wasn't for the warm lake, I would think you would have been north enough to be golden.  Hopefully you are far enough inland that the lake doesn't impact you as much, but I think it's anyone's guess and will become a nowcast for those near the lake.

It's a shame that it's even a factor at this point, but here we are on January 11 with the Crib at 41 and the mid-lake buoy at 42.  Pretty remarkable for this time in the year.

[metallica470]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's a shame that it's even a factor at this point, but here we are on January 11 with the Crib at 41 and the mid-lake buoy at 42.  Pretty remarkable for this time in the year.

Very remarkable!  What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler.  I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Very remarkable!  What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler.  I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this.

If this storm had a proper arctic airmass (not coming in after) with the warmer than average lake temps, this could have been "the one" for Chicago.  Or it would've at least had an excellent shot to be a top 3 storm.  

[brianc400]

12 minutes ago, metallica470 said:

Very remarkable!  What could have been with this storm if the water and temps were even just a little cooler.  I didn't think I would miss the days we would be discussing ice coverage and how much of open water is available to provide lake enhancement in storms like this.

[Madtown]

Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI

 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Madtown said:

Well. Don't k own who this guys is, but he has nailed the last 3 snow events so I'm going with it. Midwest weather on FB. I don't believe this includes Sunday lake stuff in MI

 

My wife just sent me the same thing that someone at work sent her, and that this 17 year old kid who runs the site "has never been wrong" LOLOL.  

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

If this storm had a proper arctic airmass (not coming in after) with the warmer than average lake temps, this could have been "the one" for Chicago.  Or it would've at least had an excellent shot to be a top 3 storm.  

For this reason, it doesn’t hurt as much missing out on this storm.  It’s not that “near perfect” set up as GHD-1 or the Super Bowl Blitz.  There was another one I can’t recall the date.  I remember vividly the NYE and New Year’s day long duration event and then backend LES in 13-14.  I think we had 2 10”+ storms that same week!  This storm will have certainly have the winds and then long duration cold spell that follows.  I absolutely hated it when a beautiful snowstorm dumped a great snow pack and then melted off within a week!

[bud2380]

Meanwhile, 18z HRRR is coming in further south vs. the 12z run.  

[bud2380]

through 10am tomorrow the HRRR has 3" more in Iowa City vs. the 12z run.  

[jcwxguy]

18z hrrr is excellent for omaha and fremont