January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

And with nothing even close to arctic air.  

Would be incredibly wet snow

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Hmmm no I must have missed that

Just kidding! Here was an evening view of my place! 
 

[Weiner Warrior]

Don't trend north!!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

He didn't even include tomorrow, the coldest day for western WA. 

Sneaky Tim!! 

[MossMan]

Just now, Weiner Warrior said:

Don't trend north!!

Or south! 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

He didn't even include tomorrow, the coldest day for western WA. 

Sorry... was about to and got distracted with Wednesday snow event.   And Randy knows when Monday is without me posting a map.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

High temps Saturday through Monday.   Now 40 degrees on MLK day will feel warm! 

I watch these close and the euro is terrible with high temps and arctic air. It is NEVER right. It will not be colder in bremerton on Saturday than Bellingham.  In December of 2022 it was on average 5-10 degrees to warm . I.wish they would fix that

 

 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

@Phil Pretty awesome torch fest we got going on here!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I watch these close and the euro is terrible with high temps and arctic air. It is NEVER right. It will not be colder in bremerton on Saturday than Bellingham.  In December of 2022 it was on average 5-10 degrees to warm . I.wish they would fix that

 

 

 

I’m going to screenshot each day and see how close they are for my area. Will update nightly. 

[TT-SEA]

Quick update on the Wednesday system... that appears to be made possible by heavy precip.   Temps are in the 32-35 degree range.   Looks like a quick dump of heavy wet snow on this run.   But widespread and impressive.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yep, one of the few redeeming qualities of my spot being close to the eastern slopes of the Coast Range. 

What do you think about the fairly aggressive cutoff to the precip on the northern edge of this, looks a bit strange no? I feel it won't be quite that sharp in reality. 

Wouldn't shock me, since the low never really comes ashore and it's fighting so much dry air in the mid levels before essentially getting sheared apart inland. And we see a deformation zone roll over us later in the day, and they are notoriously fickle.

There's some precedent for it too. The big suppressed snowstorm in February 1993 had a monster northern cutoff. Went from 8 inches in Clark County to flurries in Longview.

Edited January 12 by BLI snowman

[RentonHill]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick update on the Wednesday system... that appears to be made possible by heavy precip.   Temps are in the 32-35 degree range.   Looks like a quick dump of heavy wet snow on this run.   But widespread and impressive.

I’m glad it’s so settled this far out. No need to track it I guess. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick update on the Wednesday system... that appears to be made possible by heavy precip.   Temps are in the 32-35 degree range.   Looks like a quick dump of heavy wet snow on this run.   But widespread and impressive.

That would drop some tree limbs! 

[SnowWillarrive]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Quick update on the Wednesday system... that appears to be made possible by heavy precip.   Temps are in the 32-35 degree range.   Looks like a quick dump of heavy wet snow on this run.   But widespread and impressive.

It’s been awhile since we’ve had a genuine overrunning event. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Phil Pretty awesome torch fest we got going on here!

The sky on the second pic is Well done!

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

That would drop some tree limbs! 

Also happens before dawn on Wednesday so timing is favorable.

[SnowySeeker50]

The bands coming from the west have moved very slowly north over the last 2 hours and are now too far north of me at this point lol.

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Phil Pretty awesome torch fest we got going on here!

I absolutely need to get one of these!!!! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Speaking of mid next week, here is a good discussion from NWS Spokane regarding ensemble breakdown   Keep in mind they forecast for Eastern WA and North Idaho

There are some discrepancies as we head into Tuesday and beyond.
The question becomes what happens to the ridge along the west
coast. Does the ridge axis move east a bit and protect us, or 
will the axis remain along the coast and send waves down the 
front side of the ridge into eastern WA and north ID? By 
Wednesday there are 12% of the ensembles showing a deep trough 
moving in from the north, but that 12% is all European models. 33%
keep the ridge strong, which is 90% of the GFS models. Then 36% 
show a broad flatter ridge and 19% showing some northwest flow and
lower heights. Lots of potential scenarios. The basic idea is that
temperatures will continue to moderate up towards average, but
still be 5 to 9 degrees below average, and we will see an
increased chance of snow starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing
through the remainder of the forecast period.

[Weiner Warrior]

Another one coming in with cool temps.

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Phil Pretty awesome torch fest we got going on here!

Looks like it!

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s been awhile since we’ve had a genuine overrunning event. 

This would obviously not be an overrunning event on Wednesday.   It appears to be a cold front with very heavy precip for a few hours in a marginal air mass.  I think the Wednesday event could happen even if we didn't have this arctic air now.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I absolutely need to get one of these!!!! 

I’ll ask my wife where she found it.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Another one coming in with cool temps.

I thought Phil said raging El Niño would race back to us next week??? 

[Weiner Warrior]

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Wouldn't shock me, since the low never really comes ashore and it's fighting so much dry air in the mid levels. And we essentially see a deformation zone roll over us later in the day, and they are notoriously fickle.

There's some precedent for it too. The big suppressed snowstorm in February 1993 had a monster northern cutoff. Went from 8 inches in Clark County to flurries in Longview.

Funny, I had just taken a look at the 2/93 event. Not a terrible analog, although the entrenched air mass was a bit deeper and widespread. It was a unique setup with a low of the NorCal coast in the mid 980’s which elongated NE and was replaced by another low center that bombed into the mid 980’s over the central Cascades. Kinda goofy. I remember at the coast that day was dry and overcast, although following morning we picked up three inches at sea level with the upper trough moving onshore. That winter just made it easy for some reason.

[Weiner Warrior]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I thought Phil said raging El Niño would race back to us next week??? 

Hopeful it stays cold!!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought Phil said raging El Niño would race back to us next week??? 

That is actually a much warmer set up later next week.  

[Phil]

7 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I absolutely need to get one of these!!!! 

That little thing would get buried in our next blizzard. Lmk if they have a 48” one!

[Cold Snap]

Managed to end up with a dusting here. I’ll take it in a strong El Niño. Down to 26 here with a wind chill of 19.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[MossMan]

There it is!! 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Needs to trend north a little. 

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

 

Bedtime. 2.4” and 24°F. 

 

[RCola]

*Looks at 00z Euro for next Wednesday.*

I'm ready to be hurt again.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

 

Bedtime. 2.4” and 24°F. 

 

Yeah... I just measured 2 inches on the deck.   Going to be so pretty tomorrow.

[Phil]

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I thought Phil said raging El Niño would race back to us next week??? 

You could stay cold even if the El Niño pattern returns. There are always regional anomalies imbedded in larger scale patterns.

But westerly momentum will be added to the NPAC jet soon (as MJO crosses E-Hem and blocking retrogrades into Siberia).

[Deweydog]

1/98 still stands as one of the best analogs. Low was a bit weaker and a little further north but the major players were pretty similar, with a surface air mass a couple clicks colder. 

Edited January 12 by Deweydog

[Mid Valley Duck]

22 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Yep, one of the few redeeming qualities of my spot being close to the eastern slopes of the Coast Range. 

What do you think about the fairly aggressive cutoff to the precip on the northern edge of this, looks a bit strange no? I feel it won't be quite that sharp in reality. 

With how all over the place the modeling has been on this, nothing will surprise me. I could see a reality where we all get skunked. I also could see one where PDX metro gets 1/10/17 v2.

[Phil]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... I just measure 2 inches on the deck.   Going to be so pretty tomorrow.

Looking forward to tomorrow’s snow pics.