MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, MossMan said: Down to 27.4 after a high of 33.1 today. It’s coming. Pink sky at night rgem snow storm in sight. 1 4 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Nice group of lows closer to the Colombia river now I am not sure there will actually be a low center... and even if there is it will probably be hard to find. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 So lame! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: I am not sure there will actually be a low center... if there is then it will probably be hard to find. The lows is looking rather baggy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 You just have to tip your hat to this cold wave. It's quite rare for the foothills area to have this cold of an east wind with the 850s above freezing. Still a boat load of cold air in the lower levels. 8 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Better. Certainly favored farther north. Just realized I really can’t use Boeing field meteogram for Bothell for this event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Chance of one inch or more went up. 10-20 percent chance now 20-30. 90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Any further shift south and Seattle is on the table again. 5 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Temperature is dropping pretty fast as the sun sets. Already back down to 23. Sky is warning us of the storm that is coming tomorrow! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, snow_wizard said: Any further shift south and Seattle is on the table again. Hopefully it comes in even weaker. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY. I would be happy with an inch! More than I got from the Arctic air coming in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Better. Certainly favored farther north. Quick math says about a 25% chance of a couple inches or more in Seattle Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Paine field trend. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 3 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY. This says 0% chance of 3 inches of snow here. We will see. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 I think you guys up there could get some mixed flakes, but mostly freezing rain. 1 Quote Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 HRRR further south 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, Olive1010 said: I think you guys up there could get some mixed flakes, but mostly freezing rain. If it were only this easy, pick one model and make a forecast. 4 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive1010 Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said: If it were only this easy, pick one model and make a forecast. I'm not making a definite assumption, it was only a joke 2 Quote Weather! Atmospheric conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Hawksfan2008 said: HRRR further south About a ocean shores landing looks possible, but more of a open wave of low pressure so not sure if that will do the job for Seattle. Probably the trickiest forecast I have seen in a long time. 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 19 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said: 90% chance >3", 60% chance >6" IMBY. High five. Vancouver - Spokane special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 what's the NBM saying good peoples? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said: Jan 27th Doesn't quite get there as the block is to skinny, but it does drop a chilly trough through for maybe some foothills snow. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said: what's the NBM saying good peoples? Looks good for you over in Spokane. 2 1 1 Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Using HRRR as the example but the ECMWF looks the same. There is a deformation zone on the north side of the broad area of low pressure. I am not sure the exact point of landfall matters in this case. It will not be a tightly wound system like the one on Saturday. More than the exact low center... the location of that deformation zone is there where the heavy snow will fall. 3 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minion Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Looks good for snow up here tomorrow night! Could be a big snow storm 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Temp already down to 27. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 26.3 DP 20. Wonder if I will have one more night in the teens? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, MossMan said: 26.3 DP 20. Wonder if I will have one more night in the teens? low of 23.2 i'd guess 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Dave said: Here is a reddit thread that had many people that were stuck in the traffic jam posting about it. It just sounds like pure misery. Chains are required on I-5 from Cottage Grove north. I-5 south of Eugene is so winding and hilly. It would be an absolute nightmare for a big rig on ice! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Dave said: Looks like we'll end up with a 29/21 spread today. Sucks balls for those without power. It is tough to scour out low level cold in the WV. I'm sure the next storm tomorrow won't totally suck at all. I just keep thinking about 2004 when the valley was supposed to scour out very quickly and it was a tediously slow process with the southerlies taking days longer than expected to break through. Winds never really switched offshore, but gradients stayed dead and it just rained all day for days with the ice slowly melting, dense fog and temps creeping up taking days to hit the 40s... And this was way down the valley with little gorge influence. 5 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Projected radar loop... again using the HRRR but it lines up really well with ECMWF. This gives us a good idea how this will play out. The initial band is almost guaranteed to freezing rain all the way up to Bellingham. Then its going to turn to snow in that deformation zone... wherever that ends up being located. For the Seattle area there is likely going to be an extended break where the precip is scattered. The backwash and c-zone is where areas south of Bellingham could get into the snow as well and that is what we are seeing with the southward trend today. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, TT-SEA said: Projected radar loop... again using the HRRR but it lines up really well with ECMWF. This gives us a good idea how this will play out. The initial band is almost guaranteed to freezing rain all the way up to Bellingham. Then its going to turn to snow in that deformation zone... wherever that ends up being located. For the Seattle area there is likely going to be an extended break where the precip is scattered. The backwash and c-zone is where areas south of Bellingham could get into the snow as well and that is what we are seeing with the southward trend today. That looks like the precip holds off til after dark too for Seattle northward, or right around there, which provides another wrinkle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Interestingly the HRRR also shows the temperature just above freezing tomorrow night in King County which eliminates freezing rain. Not the same down in Portland and southward. 4 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 2 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: That looks like the precip holds off til after dark too for Seattle northward, or right around there, which provides another wrinkle. Precip has been shown to start tomorrow evening around 7 or 8 p.m. in Seattle for many runs now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Nam just went south about 300 miles 3 4 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingstonWX Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, TT-SEA said: Precip has been shown to start tomorrow evening around 7 or 8 p.m. in Seattle for many runs now. I hadn't been watching the exact timelines, but figured it would come in during the warmest part of the afternoon just to spite me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Nam just went south about 300 miles Don't think so. But chasing this low center is like chasing a ghost. Its sooooo weak. This is pretty close to where the 12Z run was at the same time... just even weaker. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Perturbance Posted January 16 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 16 Checking in from Corvallis. Have been below freezing since Friday evening. We've got ice but not as bad as the Springfield area. 25.2° currently, with a 20.8° / 29.5° range today. First sunny day since this started. 18 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 16 Report Share Posted January 16 Just now, Perturbance said: Checking in from Corvallis. Have been below freezing since Friday evening. We've got ice but not as bad as the Springfield area. 25.2° currently, with a 20.8° / 29.5° range today. First sunny day since this started. Wow... those pics are incredible! Seriously awesome. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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