January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[MossMan]

So many awesome February’s I have lost count! 
And 7 great February’s in a row now, hopefully 8 in a row! 

[Weiner Warrior]

Pretty quiet for this GFS run. Ice and snow tomorrow Seattle North?

[Deweydog]

Up to 39 at Cape Horn. Should be an interesting roller coaster look to their obs by tomorrow.

[SnowySeeker50]

Went down the hill to get mail and almost slipped. Side roads have become sparkly

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Can someone post the gfs snow and ice maps plz

[Phishy Wx]

too bad we could not have had this deep snow cover during the Arctic outbreak this past weekend. would've def broke cold records.  landscapers just got done plowing/blowing my driveway and the sidewalk out front.  looks like definitely more than 8" along the edges of the sidewalk

[Skagit Weather]

Colder here today than yesterday and about the same high as Monday at 33.5F. Tomorrow looks like another interesting day with most areas hanging right around freezing. Looks like a chance for snow with the GFS showing up to 3" and the other models dropping from there. Not really expecting anything, but I'd take it if it happens. Right now I'm hoping I can get a decent freeze tonight to solidify my snow a bit. 32.0 currently with a forecast low in the upper twenties.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

8 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

Pretty quiet for this GFS run. Ice and snow tomorrow Seattle North?

Mostly a Vancouver Island special. May get a slushy inch here before it transitions to cold rain.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, Skagit Weather said:

Colder here today than yesterday and about the same high as Monday at 33.5F. Tomorrow looks like another interesting day with most areas hanging right around freezing. Looks like a chance for snow with the GFS showing up to 3" and the other models dropping from there. Not really expecting anything, but I'd take it if it happens. Right now I'm hoping I can get a decent freeze tonight to solidify my snow a bit. 32.0 currently with a forecast low in the upper twenties.

The difference with tomorrow is colder upper levels and a deeper offshore flow. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Can someone post the gfs snow and ice maps plz

lol gfs

[Phishy Wx]

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is what it looks like right now at my place. The temperature has warmed up to 32.4° and I can hear some ice falling but it's a slow process. 

[SnowySeeker50]

[Phishy Wx]

[Phishy Wx]

[snow_wizard]

I'm not even going to bother dissecting tomorrow's event.  The usual suspects will get snow, this area will get screwed, although will most likely have ZR again.  Yawn.

Hopefully the possible event later in the month will work out and we can give it another try.

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I’m in the blue! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol gfs

And?

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Not sure I buy that.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

I'm most interested on whether my kids' schools are going to be delayed tomorrow. If it freezes up and is still freezing at 6 am, then yes. Not sure what's going to happen overnight. Side roads are glittery now, but it looks like we're flirting around the 32/33 mark and there's only a thin layer of ice and slush that would need to melt. Waiting for the Euro so I have a better range to work with. (And not looking beyond 6 am tomorrow. Yet.)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Those are very wrong for hood canal. Interesting. 

[Skagit Weather]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'm most interested on whether my kids' schools are going to be delayed tomorrow. If it freezes up and is still freezing at 6 am, then yes. Not sure what's going to happen overnight. Side roads are glittery now, but it looks like we're flirting around the 32/33 mark and there's only a thin layer of ice and slush that would need to melt. Waiting for the Euro so I have a better range to work with. (And not looking beyond 6 am tomorrow. Yet.)

Schools already delayed up here. The question is whether they'll actually open considering I don't think it will be that much warmer by late morning. Not sure how side roads are at the moment, but I think most main roads are fine.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

And?

I wonder if he was referring to how long the GFS holds onto the cold at the surface.  Can't figure out why it's been doing that.

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'm most interested on whether my kids' schools are going to be delayed tomorrow. If it freezes up and is still freezing at 6 am, then yes. Not sure what's going to happen overnight. Side roads are glittery now, but it looks like we're flirting around the 32/33 mark and there's only a thin layer of ice and slush that would need to melt. Waiting for the Euro so I have a better range to work with. (And not looking beyond 6 am tomorrow. Yet.)

The ground is so cold that even if you hover right above freezing the roads will probably not improve unless the city, county, or state work on them. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

I'm most interested on whether my kids' schools are going to be delayed tomorrow. If it freezes up and is still freezing at 6 am, then yes. Not sure what's going to happen overnight. Side roads are glittery now, but it looks like we're flirting around the 32/33 mark and there's only a thin layer of ice and slush that would need to melt. Waiting for the Euro so I have a better range to work with. (And not looking beyond 6 am tomorrow. Yet.)

The ECMWF has been indicating temps will drop a couple later tonight.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I wonder if he was referring to how long the GFS holds onto the cold at the surface.  Can't figure out why it's been doing that.

I'm not that confident over here for much. It will snow some but maybe just 1-2

 

[van city]

 

1 minute ago, van city said:

That was epic. That's what 13 inches of snow from one storm looks like. 

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

GFS looks good for the usual ppl

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Holy shitt snow is coming. We will get a good dump because it is showing an event across the entire peninsula.  2-4 should be easy here tomorrow. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

5 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Schools already delayed up here. The question is whether they'll actually open considering I don't think it will be that much warmer by late morning. Not sure how side roads are at the moment, but I think most main roads are 

5 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The ground is so cold that even if you hover right above freezing the roads will probably not improve unless the city, county, or state work on them. 

 

Main roads will get work, secondary roads, might. Tertiary roads won't be addressed. And the school buses have to navigate some of those even with snow routes. I heard some districts are already calling for a delay, but ours will wait until 5:30 or 6 to make the decision. Which is good, I guess so we don't miss time if it does melt. I just hate setting my alarm for 5 when I could have slept in. (Unless there's snow. I'll wake up early for snow. That's not a problem. But it's not going to be snow.)

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Schools already delayed up here. The question is whether they'll actually open considering I don't think it will be that much warmer by late morning. Not sure how side roads are at the moment, but I think most main roads are fine.

Yeah the side roads around my place are still unplowed and quite slick. Not sure about up north though. Guess I will find out when dropping off my daughter at her school in Mt Vernon two hours later than normal. 

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm hoping to add another .5 inch to my current .5 inch.

[MikeInEverett]

8 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

GFS looks good for the usual ppl

Probably phantom snow here

[Phishy Wx]

[snow_wizard]

All of the models are trying to get something going late month.  Still a lot to be sorted out.

[Hawksfan2008]

Holy . Just got home from work and North Bend got hit just as hard, if not harder than last year. Unfortunately a huge portion of my Japanese maple fell down. The yard is a mess. RGEM is nails for the east wind events here. More tomorrow. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All of the models are trying to get something going late month.  Still a lot to be sorted out.

I'm thinking between the 5th and 12th. There are hints being shown already

 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

All of the models are trying to get something going late month.  Still a lot to be sorted out.

Wouldn’t that be something…

[MossMan]

Still snowing lightly…Crazy! Definitely was not expecting that. 

Edited January 18 by MossMan

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Holy . Just got home from work and North Bend got hit just as hard, if not harder than last year. Unfortunately a huge portion of my Japanese maple fell down. The yard is a mess. RGEM is nails for the east wind events here. More tomorrow. 

Dude I'm worried about that area and other places near the cascades,  strong east winds should get going and there should be a good shot of more zr. Still a bunch of very cold air in passes.