January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

What a funky progression

Funky has been the MO this winter.  I think this could be a really fun year with the Nina kicking in later.  Maybe a long awaited cool summer?

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Cliff Mass says El Niño is quickly dying and La Niña is coming. Let’s go!

Very good chance next winter will be yet another one to have an Arctic outbreak.  So far this decade has already had 5.  That's not even counting the Jan 2020 event which was pretty substantial north of Seattle.

[snow_wizard]

I've been running some numbers for this century and have found the winters are running colder now than they were at the turn of the century.  I've done a 10 year running average graph for each winter month and found that December and February peaked in the 2004 to 2006 period, and January has just been an ongoing stink fest.  This is what I have so far.  Averages are for the Puget Sound Lowlands division.

Dec - highest running average = 40.5 (2006), current running average = 39.9

Jan - highest running average = 41.1 (2006) and currently

Feb - highest running average = 42.1, current running average 40.4

Highest winter average = 41.2 (2006)

Current winter average = 40.5

Again this is based on 10 year running averages for the 21st century.  Obviously I had to use 1991 through 2000 to derive the 10 year average for 2000, and so on.

[snow_wizard]

I have to say this gives me a warm and fuzzy feeling.  Nice looking surface gradient for an ensemble mean.

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The zone almost never happens there. 

It’s meant to taunt us 

[snow_wizard]

Well this is new.  The cold air from AK slides down through BC on this run.  Still headed south on this frame.

[snow_wizard]

Graph Cast is in camp ECMWF but even better.  A cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run.  Mega torch in the East.

[Phishy Wx]

2/5 - 2/12

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Graph Cast is in camp ECMWF but even better.  A cold trough digging down the BC Coast late in the run.  Mega torch in the East.

Something brewing.

[AbbyJr]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Very good chance next winter will be yet another one to have an Arctic outbreak.  So far this decade has already had 5.  That's not even counting the Jan 2020 event which was pretty substantial north of Seattle.

It's possible but there have been many La Niña events that did not feature an arctic outbreak in the PNW.

[the_convergence_zone]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I've been running some numbers for this century and have found the winters are running colder now than they were at the turn of the century.  I've done a 10 year running average graph for each winter month and found that December and February peaked in the 2004 to 2006 period, and January has just been an ongoing stink fest.  This is what I have so far.  Averages are for the Puget Sound Lowlands division.

Dec - highest running average = 40.5 (2006), current running average = 39.9

Jan - highest running average = 41.1 (2006) and currently

Feb - highest running average = 42.1, current running average 40.4

Highest winter average = 41.2 (2006)

Current winter average = 40.5

Again this is based on 10 year running averages for the 21st century.  Obviously I had to use 1991 through 2000 to derive the 10 year average for 2000, and so on.

Have you tried removing the ENSO signal? I’m curious if it’s just that we’re  hitting Nina luck… 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Hate to be that guy but those wxbell maps are WAY too optimistic with rain/snow lines. As modeled that wouldn't be particularly close to lowland snow.

Here's the same frame from TropicalTidbits

 

So rain even in the majority of the cascades then as well? 

[Slushy Inch]

Feeling good about Feb yet again!

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well this is new.  The cold air from AK slides down through BC on this run.  Still headed south on this frame.

Less than the 12Z run yesterday... and we might make a run at 70 next Monday before we get to that point.  

[MossMan]

Tim is ready for spring! 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

Tim is ready for spring! 

Pretty much always the case by February!    I think February is going to end up warm in the overall this year... all of spring actually.

[High Desert Mat?]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty much always the case by February!    I think February is going to end up warm in the overall this year... all of spring actually.

I disagree. I think we have a cool and damp spring since we’re coming out of El Niño and no major heat waves this summer. The worm is turning. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I disagree. I think we have a cool and damp spring since we’re coming out of El Niño and no major heat waves this summer. The worm is turning. 

Not sure about summer.   But recent years coming out of an El Nino like 2016 and 2019 featured a warm spring.   March, April, and May were all warmer than normal in both years.   I think summer will be closer to average and maybe wetter than recent years.   But we all thought summer was going to be chilly in 2021 and 2022 with an established Nina and they were top tier hot.    So who knows.   Hard to bet against a warm summer at this point.   But even an average summer is pretty warm now compared to 50 years ago.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Less than the 12Z run yesterday... and we might make a run at 70 next Monday before we get to that point.  

If i could i would pay 10k not to have a 70 degree day in winter.  DEAD SERIOUS.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

If i could i would pay 10k not to have a 70 degree day in winter.  DEAD SERIOUS.

I would do the same to not have any day with a high below 65 in the summer.     Might even pay double that amount to have every day between 75-82.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would do the same to not have any day with a high below 65 in the summer.     Might even pay double that amount to have every day between 75-82.  

Every day between 75 and 82?  I'll buy into that.  Over here more likely 80-87, but that would be just about perfect.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Every day between 75 and 82?  I'll buy into that.  Over here more likely 80-87, but that would be just about perfect.

Just venmo me and we can make it happen!

[MossMan]

Summertime in western Wa my dream would be a variable 75-85 degrees with rainfall at least once or twice a week at night. 
Eastern Wa it would be a variable 85-95 degrees with wet thunderstorms often, super windy days, and calm days. 

[Deweydog]

People flashing a lot of cash today!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I would do the same to not have any day with a high below 65 in the summer.     Might even pay double that amount to have every day between 75-82.  

Mid 70's is perfect. That is what i love about the summers up at my cabin, they are cooler than here becouse of the elevation. 68-75 is a good average and a couple weeks of 75-80 degrees. Perfect.

[RentonHill]

Euro weekly control gives a decent snowstorm for PDX in a bit of a backdoor blast in the not too distant future. I choose to believe. 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

I like having a rainy May and June. The plants were so happy in June 2022, everything was incredibly green and lush. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

17 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

People flashing a lot of cash today!

Not cash but as you can see I have a automotive addiction collecting fast American cars.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not cash but as you can see I have a automotive addiction collecting fast American cars.

I figure I might be able to trade my Ram for a sub-20 max in 2026 and a conditional juicy Arctic front with low sun angles in 2027. It’s got a sunroof…

[Phishy Wx]

this looks gorgeous and I'm not going to be here to see it. oof

 

 

[SouthHillFrosty]

15 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Not cash but as you can see I have a automotive addiction collecting fast American cars.

You need a convertible to complete your collection!

[TT-SEA]

17 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

I like having a rainy May and June. The plants were so happy in June 2022, everything was incredibly green and lush. 

June 2022... definitely.   May 2022 was stupid cold and trees did not even fully leaf out here.    Everything was stunted.    

May and most of June are almost always lush green anyways.   No need for it to be in the 50s and raining every day.  

 

[MossMan]

Current snow pile update! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

19 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You need a convertible to complete your collection!

The vette is a targa top, the center of the roof comes off.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, MossMan said:

Current snow pile update! 

They make a snow plow for a rc truck.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Current snow pile update! 

Looks like same here!  

[DeepFriedEgg]

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

[High Desert Mat?]

11 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

Do kids count?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

20k

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

How much would y'all pay to see a Jan 1950 or 1969 redux?

I'd sell a few things