January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

NW Maryland has the best skiing anywhere outside of the Alps. Fact.

Dafuk u talkin about?

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Hey Phil, how's it looking in Philly next week?

Seasonal and boring. Cold enough for flurries.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

But there is some degree of atmospheric coupling to the PMM. It’s distinct from the PDO and should be factored into any seasonal scale forecast.

https://www.aos.wisc.edu/~dvimont/MModes/PMM.html

I remember last year the PMM was very different than the previous years... but it was still a warm summer.  

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Seasonal and boring. Cold enough for flurries.

probably cooler than here actually.

[TT-SEA]

Just got the mail... got free tickets again this year.   Boating season approaches.  The best part of living in the Puget Sound region!

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

I remember last year the PMM was very different than the previous years... but it was still a warm summer.  

Yeah Niño forcing dominated all of last summer. Started early and never let up. In some respect the climatological mid-latitude response to niño tropical forcing may have amplified by the -PMM via reduction in off-equator convection (less niña-like).

[Dave]

The WCWI (West Coast Weenie Index) is at a +2.5. That usually leads to some February snows.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Yeah Niño forcing dominated all of last summer. Started early and never let up. In some respect the climatological mid-latitude response to niño tropical forcing may have amplified by the -PMM via reduction in off-equator convection (less niña-like).

Would be nice to see a Niña transition this summer. Probably wouldn’t be enough to give us a summer that’s actually cool. Not sure if that’s possible anymore. But really just having one that’s not record warm would be nice at this point.

[TT-SEA]

SEA has been as warm as 53 today.   Nice overachiever with GFS only showing 47 and the ECMWF showing 50 for today.  

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

probably cooler than here actually.

Second half of Feb could be pretty fun out here though. If it’s possible to delay your trip I would.  

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Meanwhile I’m going to burn a pile of money, then go spend whatever I have left at Casino the next day, since being so far in the hole will make it more likely for me to win it all back, and then some.

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, Dave said:

The WCWI (West Coast Weenie Index) is at a +2.5. That usually leads to some February snows.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Second half of Feb could be pretty fun out here though. If it’s possible to delay your trip I would.  

unfortunately I can't.  Management meetings for work.  was hoping I had a chance when I planned it 2 months ago

[snow_wizard]

Models are definitely trending east on the trough when the main cold tongue drops down.  More solid shot of cold for us.

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got the mail... got free tickets again this year.   Boating season approaches.  The best part of living in the Puget Sound region!

Our long time friends/neighbors ask us to go with them since they are buying another summer place this time on Lake Whatcom and wanted my expertise on which lake boat and jetskis to buy. I’m probably not the best person to ask since my boat is 30 years old and my jetski is 20 years old! But it will be fun to shop with someone that has no spending limit lol! My wife has already given me the disclaimer that our old boat and jetski are just fine AND WE ARE NOT BUYING ANYTHING!!!

Edited January 26 by MossMan

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Would be nice to see a Niña transition this summer. Probably wouldn’t be enough to give us a summer that’s actually cool. Not sure if that’s possible anymore. But really just having one that’s not record warm would be nice at this point.

Blech. I want nothing to do with a niña transition during descent phase of +QBO. Would be 5+ consecutive months of torching here.

If we do transition to a niña then yes it would have a higher chance to produce a cooler outcome in the West versus recent years. But I don’t think it’s a guarantee that we do transition, by any means. Multiple potential failure modes that could lead to a neutral ENSO outcome.

[Dave]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Our long time friends/neighbors ask us to go with them since they are buying another summer place this time on Lake Whatcom and wanted my expertise on which lake boat and jetskis to buy. I’m probably not the best person to ask since my boat is 30 years old and my jetski is 20 years old! But it will be fun to shop with someone that has no spending limit lol! My wife has already given me the disclaimer that our old boat and jetski are just fine AND WE ARE NOT BUYING ANYTHING!!!

Just be prepared for breakdowns/emergencies. This isn't the same thing, but when I was a teenager, I couldn't quite figure out windsurfing and sailed out into the middle of a large lake and couldn't figure out how to get back against the wind. That was one of the shittttiest days of my life. Fortunately, some cool bro eventually saw my predicament and helped me out.

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

unfortunately I can't.  Management meetings for work.  was hoping I had a chance when I planned it 2 months ago

Climatologically it’s good timing. But the subseasonal evolution this year is 2-3 weeks behind than that of a standard/canonical niño, so the instead of the first half of Feb, it’s the second half of Feb with the greatest potential for a big storm.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Just be prepared for breakdowns/emergencies. This isn't the same thing, but when I was a teenager, I couldn't quite figure out windsurfing and sailed out into the middle of a large lake and couldn't figure out how to get back against the wind. That was one of the shittttiest days of my life. Fortunately, some cool bro eventually saw my predicament and helped me out.

Fern Ridge?

[snow_wizard]

If that eastward trend continues on the the way the trough digs down we could do pretty well.  It's kind of skinny so it would be a matter of finding the sweet spot.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

If that eastward trend continues on the the way the trough dig down we could do pretty well.  It's kind of skinny so it would be a matter of finding the sweet spot.

The remainder of the run was kind of a bummer. 

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fern Ridge?

Yep. It was at full pool and super windy that day. Fortunately, the water temps were 70+ so I didn't freeze. But I was completely exhausted.

[MossMan]

14 minutes ago, Dave said:

Just be prepared for breakdowns/emergencies. This isn't the same thing, but when I was a teenager, I couldn't quite figure out windsurfing and sailed out into the middle of a large lake and couldn't figure out how to get back against the wind. That was one of the shittttiest days of my life. Fortunately, some cool bro eventually saw my predicament and helped me out.

I used to make good money as a kid on the weekends at our family lake house towing broken down boats and jetskies with my little fishing boat (pictured) it was great! I would also help out the occasional stranded windsurfer. 
Our friend buying the place has his captains license and a lot of salt water experience including sailing from Florida to the Bahamas in various weather, they also took their very large catamaran from here in puget sound and sailed it all the way to Cabo…so that family has seen a lot and is quite prepared for on the water emergencies. They are just now getting into the lake thing. 

Edited January 26 by MossMan

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MossMan said:

I used to make good money as a kid on the weekends at our family lake house towing broken down boats and jetskies with my little fishing boat, it was great! 
Our friend buying the place has his captains license and a lot of salt water experience including sailing from Florida to the Bahamas in various weather, they also took their very large catamaran from here in puget sound and sailed it all the way to Cabo…so that family has seen a lot and is quite prepared for on the water emergencies. They are just now getting into the lake thing. 

Lake Whatcom is a piece of cake for them! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, Dave said:

Yep. It was at full pool and super windy that day. Fortunately, the water temps were 70+ so I didn't freeze. But I was completely exhausted.

Yeah that is a huge lake! For Tim’s reference it is about twice as big as Lake Sammish. 

[Dave]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

I used to make good money as a kid on the weekends at our family lake house towing broken down boats and jetskies with my little fishing boat (pictured) it was great! 
Our friend buying the place has his captains license and a lot of salt water experience including sailing from Florida to the Bahamas in various weather, they also took their very large catamaran from here in puget sound and sailed it all the way to Cabo…so that family has seen a lot and is quite prepared for on the water emergencies. They are just now getting into the lake thing. 

Ha! Imagine the embarrassment of being towed in on a nice jetski or boat by that thing (btw, I would love to be able to play around with that as a kid). The bro that took me in was on a jetski/waverunner, so I've loved them ever since.

[smerfylicious]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

SEA has been as warm as 53 today.   Nice overachiever with GFS only showing 47 and the ECMWF showing 50 for today.  

Yesterday was warm enough that I took my kiddo to the Downtown Bellevue park kid's area that opened a bit ago. Super nice, huge play area with a lot for kids to do. This area needs more of that. 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Dave said:

Ha! Imagine the embarrassment of being towed in on a nice jetski or boat by that thing (btw, I would love to be able to play around with that as a kid). The bro that took me in was on a jetski/waverunner, so I've loved them ever since.

They were always so grateful and happy to not be stranded, I never asked for money but everyone always offered and I never turned it down lol! 
Even though I am inching closer to 50 I still love hitting the water on my old jetski! This was just a few months ago but it seems like a year now lol. Looking forward to another season of fun (once snow is no longer a possibility)

[Dave]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

They were always so grateful and happy to not be stranded, I never asked for money but everyone always offered and I never turned it down lol! 
Even though I am inching closer to 50 I still love hitting the water on my old jetski! This was just a few months ago but it seems like a year now lol. Looking forward to another season of fun (once snow is no longer a possibility)

The general rule if you aren't a ****** is to help out any boater that is in trouble. I've helped some people that were stuck snowmobiling and the look of gratitude they gave me is indescribable when I helped them get free. They were so grateful. I generally feel that those are some of my favorite memories on the snow. A dude even gave me a 6 pack he had in his cooler because he was in total relief. I didn't turn it down. Boating is no different. 

[Phishy Wx]

Boats are great when your friends own them

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't think Seattle is as unique for boating opportunities as @TT-SEA thinks. Other than the Sound, it is similar to many other places. Including big cities like Dallas, Tulsa, Houston, Nashville, Austin, etc... The list really goes on and on. Even Eugene. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Just got the mail... got free tickets again this year.   Boating season approaches.  The best part of living in the Puget Sound region!

Tim, do y'all need me to bring up some rave glasses and MDMA for the party boat?

[TT-SEA]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah that is a huge lake! For Tim’s reference it is about twice as big as Lake Sammish. 

Lake Samish near Bellingham?   Used to go there a few times each summer with my parents.   

Lake Sammamish in Issaquah is truly the perfect size and it's a natural lake.   The bigger lakes are not as enjoyable because they get so rough even with light wind and they are colder.  Lake Sammamish is big enough to have lots of room and you can't see the north end from the boat launch so if feels even bigger but still small enough to be manageable and warm.    

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think Seattle is as unique for boating opportunities as @TT-SEA thinks. Other than the Sound, it is similar to many other places. Including big cities like Dallas, Tulsa, Houston, Nashville, Austin, etc... The list really goes on and on. Even Eugene. 

I mean lake WA is pretty big. Only thing I can think of that’s unique. Though it’s not that large.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think Seattle is as unique for boating opportunities as @TT-SEA thinks. Other than the Sound, it is similar to many other places. Including big cities like Dallas, Tulsa, Houston, Nashville, Austin, etc... The list really goes on and on. Even Eugene. 

No... its pretty special.   Highest boat ownership rate in the country as well.   Western Oregon doesn't have anything Iike it.   And the Midwest lakes are shallow and turn green in the summer.   And lakes in the SE US have all kinds of strange things that we don't have here.  

You truly can't beat the Puget Sound and all the islands for natural beauty so close to a metro area.    It's second to none.  But it's more challenging boating in salt water so we stick to lakes.

[Dave]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I don't think Seattle is as unique for boating opportunities as @TT-SEA thinks. Other than the Sound, it is similar to many other places. Including big cities like Dallas, Tulsa, Houston, Nashville, Austin, etc... The list really goes on and on. Even Eugene. 

Most of the waterways up there are freezing other than the urban ones that have plenty of asphalt runoff and unclean crap. I'm looking at you swimmer's edge Green Lake. I've been to Detroit Lake many times when the temp was over 72 degrees and once it was even 77 degrees and totally clean.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No... its pretty special.   Highest boat ownership rate in the country as well.   Western Oregon doesn't have anything Iike it.   And the Midwest lakes are shallow and turn green in the summer.   And lakes in the SE US have all kinds of strange things that we don't have here.  

New England has some pretty great lakes

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Dave said:

Most of the waterways up there are freezing other than the urban ones that have plenty of asphalt runoff and unclean crap. I'm looking at you swimmer's edge Green Lake. I've been to Detroit Lake many times when the temp was over 72 degrees and once it was even 77 degrees and totally clean.

Puget Sound is cold for sure.   Detroit Lake is a haul and its not natural.    Water is all around us in the Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

New England has some pretty great lakes

Yeah... seems like it.   Have never been boating there but I see some big lakes on the map and they probably don't have all the strange things that are swimming in the swamps of the SE US.    And the geography is more hilly so that translates to deeper lakes.   

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... seems like it.   Have never been boating there but I see some big lakes on the map and probably don't have all the strange things swimming in the swamps of the SE US.    And the geography is more hilly so that translates to deeper lakes.   

if you get north of the fall line into the Piedmont and Blue Ridge regions of the carolinas the lakes are fine.  it's the coastal plain lakes with the gators and moccasins